Summary of the day: Ukraine’s Security Service successfully targeted an oil depot in Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast with drone strikes, indicating heightened military tensions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces reclaimed positions near Kupyansk and Svatove, though Russian troops made gains near Kreminna, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. In international relations, Russia and Iran affirmed their intent to strengthen ties, amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts. Domestically, the deaths of a Russian businessman and a military official linked to the detained former Deputy Defense Minister underscored internal Russian instability. Additionally, deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations were highlighted by the detention of a Russian citizen in Yerevan, signaling Kremlin efforts to reinforce its influence in Armenia.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
In Yerevan, Armenian border guards, collaborating with Russian authorities, detained a Russian citizen wanted for spreading false information about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The detention of Natalia Taranushenko at the airport is seen as part of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to exert influence over Armenia, amidst worsening bilateral relations. After her detention, Taranushenko was released under the condition that she appears at local law enforcement agencies. This incident underscores the pressure on Armenian security forces from Russia, which has previously conducted detentions in Armenia without local notification.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov misrepresented Western actions against Russian aggression as unnecessary escalations, threatening Europe’s security. He mentioned that Russia has targeted European locations in response to the U.S. deploying long-range missiles to Germany. This rhetoric is part of the Kremlin’s broader strategy to influence Western decision-making and reduce support for Ukraine, using tactics like nuclear threats and announcing departures from international treaties like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that 50 of its Special Operations Forces personnel were sent to Kazakhstan’s Taktal military training ground to participate in the “Summit of Brotherhood – 2024” joint exercises.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces launched ground attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City, but there were no significant changes to the frontline. Conflicting reports emerged about Russian troops potentially crossing the Vovcha River in Vovchansk. Fighting continued in areas around Kharkiv, including Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces noted that Russian forces are regrouping and preparing for further attacks in Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made gains along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, advancing in forest areas near Kupyansk and Svatove, despite ongoing Russian assaults. Geolocated footage from shows Ukrainian progress near Lyman Pershyi and Berestove, while Russian troops advanced in Makiivka, near Kreminna, and towards the northern outskirts of Makiivka. Russian forces also moved forward near Berestove, Pishchane, and Stelmakhivka. Continued Russian military activity was reported in areas around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, involving units near Lyman Pershyi.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in multiple directions around Siversk, including northeast, east, southeast, and south of the city. However, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in these areas. Reports of Russian advances towards Pereizne from Vesele, south of Siversk, remain unconfirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, targeting areas to the north, east, and southeast, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Reports indicate small groups of Russian troops advancing towards the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal southwest of Kalynivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces confirmed advancements near Toretsk, particularly along Pershotravneva Street in Zalizne, southeast of Toretsk, based on geolocated footage. Additional claims of Russian progress to the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne and within Niu York, south of Toretsk, remain unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued around Toretsk, including to the east near Druzhba, and in the southeast near Zalizne and Pivnichne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made advances near Avdiivka, with recent movements noted in eastern Yevhenivka and southeast of Novoselivka Persha. Although Russian milbloggers reported significant control over Yevhenivka and portions of Novoselivka Persha, and advances in areas including north of Novooleksandrivka and near the Karlivske Reservoir, these claims lack visual confirmation. Russian military operations continued across multiple directions around Avdiivka, encompassing areas north, northwest, west, and southwest of the city.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces conducted offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City without any confirmed frontline changes. Claims by Russian milbloggers of advancements up to two kilometers within Krasnohorivka remain unverified. Operations continued around Donetsk, particularly near Krasnohorivka, and extended to Kostyantynivka, Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces achieved confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, specifically within northern Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka. Geolocated footage supports this advancement. There are mixed reports from Russian milbloggers regarding whether Urozhaine was completely or partially captured. Additionally, the Ukrainian General Staff noted a significant intensification of Russian offensive operations in the Vremivka direction, with continued positional engagements near Velyka Novoselivka and Makarivka.
Zaporizhia Line
Ukrainian forces made advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast, capturing several forest areas north of Dorozhnyanka despite ongoing Russian ground attacks. Clashes continued near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and northwest of Verbove.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces continued assaults on islands in the Dnipro River Delta and conducted glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions on the western bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched five Shahed drones from Krasnodar Krai towards Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces successfully shooting down four. The fifth drone veered off into Belarusian airspace, traveling as far as Vitebsk Oblast. Despite efforts by Belarusian forces, including sorties by a Mi-24 helicopter and an Su-30 aircraft, the final status of the drone remains unclear. This incident underscores ongoing military actions and airspace incursions involving Russian and Belarusian territories.
Russia News
Ukraine’s Security Service conducted drone strikes on an oil depot in Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast, disrupting a key Russian military logistics hub.
Two Russian individuals connected to detained former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov died on the same day. Businessman Igor Kotelnikov, accused of bribing defense officials, died of heart failure in a Moscow detention center after reportedly agreeing to testify against Ivanov. Magomed Khandayev, a former subordinate of Ivanov at the Ministry of Defense, also died in Moscow under unspecified circumstances, though he was only questioned as a witness and faced no charges. Ivanov was arrested on April 24, 2024, on bribery charges, marking a significant crackdown within the Russian defense sector.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense is enhancing its training capabilities, including the modernization of facilities and the creation of new ones focused on drone operator training. Recent footage shows Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov inspecting a training ground in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai, highlighting these ongoing improvements.
The Cyclone Central Research Institute, a subsidiary of Rostec, announced the development of a neural network for optical drone detectors, which enhances detection ranges by 40%. This technology automates drone detection and informs operators of necessary actions to counter detected drones.
Russian forces are facing challenges with maintaining consistent electronic warfare (EW) coverage in Ukraine due to issues with equipment overheating. A milblogger, recently returned from the front, reported that while EW capabilities are adequate, the devices can only operate for 30 to 40 minutes before overheating.
Russia’s Allies
Russia and Iran are reinforcing their commitment to deepen bilateral and multilateral relations. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of Russia as a strategic ally and expressed intentions to enhance cooperation through organizations like BRICS, the SCO, and the EAEU. Pezeshkian also mentioned Iran’s readiness to support peace initiatives between Russia and Ukraine. Concurrently, the Russian Ambassador to Iran, Alexei Dedov, confirmed a continued strategic partnership with Iran and discussed an upcoming comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, although without specifying a timeline.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces alerted that Russian internet actors are disseminating a false narrative that territorial recruitment centers in Ukraine, which mobilize military personnel, are orchestrated by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). This misinformation aims to erode trust in Ukrainian authorities and disrupt mobilization efforts, with some Western academics reportedly echoing these false claims.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org