Summary of the day: Russia expanded its legal definition of extremism, potentially targeting domestic critics of its actions in Ukraine. Concurrently, Russia and North Korea are seeking deeper cooperation in the judicial sphere. In Ukraine, the military response included drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Krasnodar Krai and a military airbase in Rostov Oblast. Meanwhile, in Georgia, authorities are acting against citizens who volunteered with the Georgian Legion in Ukraine. On the battlefield, Russian troops made significant advancements in several key areas including Vovchansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Chinese and Belarusian troops conducted the “Attacking Falcon” military exercise in Belarus from July 15 to 19, which included a simulated terrorist airport recapture. The exercise featured nighttime parachute drops, drone surveillance, and the coordinated use of armored helicopters and ground forces. This joint training near Brest, close to Poland and Ukraine, occurred amidst heightened tensions following the NATO summit in Washington, which voiced concerns over Belarus’s support for Russia. The exercise coincides with Belarus joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and hosting Chinese military honors in a recent parade.
The Russian and Belarusian Ministries of Foreign Affairs are jointly issuing reports accusing various countries, including Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, and Australia, of human rights violations and “Russophobia.” These reports are seen as attempts to deflect from their own documented human rights issues.
Poland is considering halting the transportation of goods through Belarus if diplomatic relations do not improve, as stated by Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna. This consideration follows ongoing tensions, exacerbated by accusations against Belarus of pushing migrants into Poland to influence EU sanctions discussions since 2021. Szejna outlined specific conditions for normalizing relations, including ending hybrid attacks, and releasing both the killer of a Polish soldier and other imprisoned Poles. He emphasized that cutting transport ties would be a last resort but necessary if Belarus fails to meet these demands. The tension is further strained by Belarus’s cooperation with Russia against Ukraine, limiting Poland’s responsive options. Additionally, in late June, Poland joined Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in urging the EU to enhance border defenses against potential threats from Belarus and Russia.
Russia and North Korea are enhancing their judicial collaboration, as marked by the recent visit of Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov to Pyongyang. This visit, a first of its kind, involved discussions with North Korean counterpart Kim Chol Won and resulted in a new cooperation agreement for 2024-2026, focusing on exchanging legislative practices and enhancing judicial cooperation. This development reflects a broader trend of increased cooperation between the two nations across various sectors.
Georgian authorities have reportedly placed about 300 volunteers from the Georgian Legion, currently serving alongside Ukrainian forces, on Georgia’s wanted list. The Georgian Legion Commander, Mamuka Mamulashvili, disclosed that these volunteers are wanted for undisclosed crimes, with some also being questioned for alleged conspiracy to overthrow the government and terrorism. Concurrently, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has charged many of these volunteers, including Mamulashvili, in absentia for participating in military operations as mercenaries for Ukraine. This action is perceived as part of a broader strategy by both the Georgian and Russian governments to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiments and discourage pro-Western and Euro-Atlantic aspirations among Georgians, aligning with Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics to destabilize and weaken Georgia.
The European Union has approved its first-ever military aid package for Armenia, allocating 10 million euros from the European Peace Facility (EPF) to enhance the Armenian Armed Forces. This assistance aims to boost Armenia’s logistical capacities and civilian protection capabilities. It also supports Armenia’s potential participation in international military missions, including EU-led operations. This move comes as Armenia seeks to distance itself from Russia following disappointing support during Azerbaijan’s offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh and is part of broader efforts to strengthen EU-Armenian relations. The EPF, established in March 2021, supports the EU’s foreign and security policy goals, including conflict prevention and international security enhancement.
Peace Talks
Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, met with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at the Republican National Conference on July 16 in Washington. Johnson, acting independently but with Ukraine’s interests in mind, discussed Russia’s war against Ukraine with Trump, later expressing confidence in Trump’s potential to help bring peace. Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna of Ukraine noted Johnson’s familiarity with Ukraine’s position, emphasizing his valuable perspective and influence. Meanwhile, Trump has voiced skepticism about U.S. aid to Ukraine and suggested controversial terms for ending the war, including demands previously made by Putin that are unacceptable to Ukraine. Despite this, Johnson believes Trump understands the significant implications of Ukraine’s defeat for the West.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze expressed that the reelection of Donald Trump could expedite the end of the war in Ukraine and stabilize the region, potentially altering international perspectives on Georgia. Kobakhidze’s comments align with his ruling party’s shift away from Western integration towards more isolationist policies and closer ties with Russia. He noted this during appearances at the U.S.-based Conservative Political Action Conference alongside right-wing leaders. Trump, campaigning with running mate Senator JD Vance, has proposed a plan to swiftly conclude the Ukrainian conflict, hinting at territorial concessions to Russia. Meanwhile, Kobakhidze remarked that there are currently no active discussions on NATO expansion for Georgia or Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will visit China from July 23 for discussions on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, seeking a just and stable peace, and bilateral relations, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced. This marks Kuleba’s first trip to China since the full-scale conflict began. His meeting with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi follows their previous interaction at the Munich Security Conference in February. Despite claiming neutrality in the conflict, China has deepened economic ties with Russia and has become a major supplier of dual-use goods to the Russian defense industry. Ukraine has sought China’s influence to mediate the conflict, but efforts have seen little success, highlighted by China’s absence at a recent global peace summit and criticism from President Zelensky. China has proposed its own peace plan, emphasizing adherence to U.N. Charter principles.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are enhancing their use of first-person view (FPV) drones to intercept Ukrainian drones in mid-air, with recent footage showing a Russian FPV drone intercepting a Ukrainian baba yaga drone. This advancement reflects tactical improvements in engaging heavier, slower-moving Ukrainian drones involved in munitions delivery and reconnaissance. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces are also advancing their drone capabilities, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi noting that Ukrainian operators are developing new techniques to counter Russian reconnaissance drones using FPV drones and electronic warfare systems. This ongoing drone warfare indicates both sides are actively innovating and adapting their drone strategies.
Ukrainian forces targeted occupied Novostepove, Crimea, with drones and ATACMS strikes, damaging Russian military equipment. Russian forces are currently repairing the damage, with reports indicating that four ATACMS were used in the operation.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Russian forces made marginal territorial advances northeast of Kharkiv City, particularly within Vovchansk and its surrounding forest areas. Ukrainian military sources acknowledge that Russian troops control parts of the northern Hlyboke and maintain positions in Vovchansk’s Aggregate Plant, suggesting ongoing engagements in these zones.
Russian military activities near Hlyboke and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast are intensifying, with efforts focused on regrouping, drone reconnaissance, and preparing for further offensives. Notably, additional assault units, including the 155th Marine Brigade and the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, have been deployed. This area near the Russian border experienced a failed offensive in May, resulting in significant Russian casualties. In response, Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks. Key Russian units like the 153rd Tank Regiment are undergoing recovery, with the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the ‘Akhmat’ unit taking over their positions. Further reinforcements are being brought in from nearby Murom in Belgorod Oblast to bolster the ranks. Additionally, Russian forces have adopted defensive positions near Lukyantsi, north of Kharkiv City, indicating a strategic adjustment.
The Third Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released GoPro footage on Telegram, documenting a close combat operation against Russian troops in the Kharkiv region. The video captures Ukrainian forces engaging Russian soldiers at dawn, utilizing close combat techniques and overcoming Russian thermobaric fire. The footage shows Ukrainian stormtroopers capturing three Russian soldiers as prisoners of war and executing a sweep until no Russian fighters remained. The operation was part of ongoing offensive actions to find weak points in Russian defenses in the area. Some Ukrainian soldiers were wounded during the operation, and the video concludes with the evacuation of the captured Russian soldiers. The authenticity of the video’s location and date could not be independently verified.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without making significant territorial gains. The operations included clearing efforts on the outskirts of Pishchane, southeast of Kupyansk, and attacks in various directions including northeast near Synkivka, southeast near Hlushkivka, and northwest of Kreminna. Despite these ongoing assaults, no confirmed advances were reported.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces achieved minor advancements south of Siversk, notably making gains along Nezalezhnosti Street in central Rozdolivka. Recent operations also included ground attacks east and southeast of Siversk, specifically near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Pereizne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without making any significant territorial gains. Claims by Russian milbloggers of advancements near the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal area close to Kalynivka remain unconfirmed, as no visual evidence supports Russian presence on the western bank of the canal. The Ukrainian General Staff noted a surge in attacks north and northeast of Chasiv Yar, indicating intensified Russian military activity near Bohdanivka, Minkivka, Vasyukivka, and Hryhorivka.
Toretsk
Russian forces have made tactical advances in Niu York, south of Toretsk, with geolocated footage indicating progress up to Yesenina Street in southwestern Niu York. Claims of further Russian advances into central Niu York and southwestward in Zalizne and Pivnichne remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces report Russian attacks typically involve squad-sized groups, with five to seven such assaults daily in areas near Toretsk, including Niu York, Pivnichne, and Zalizne.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reported marginal gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka, continuing offensive operations in these areas. Claims by Russian milbloggers of advances north of Novooleksandrivka and around Prohres and Vovche remain unverified. Additional claims include the recent capture of Nevelske southwest of Avdiivka, though there is no visual confirmation of complete control. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian ground attacks near several locations north and northwest of Avdiivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently made advances west and southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage indicates progress along Slovyanska and Chkalova streets in western Krasnohorivka and up to Tsentralna Street in eastern Maksymilyanivka. The Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian ground attacks near Krasnohorivka and in the southwest near Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and intensified bombings along the frontline in this region.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast without changes to the frontline. The areas around Robotyne experienced continued fighting, including near Verbove, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in east bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky without changes to the frontline. Russian sources reported ongoing operations to clear islands near Krynky, claiming control over some areas without specifying details. Complaints from Russian troops in the region highlight significant challenges, including delayed evacuations, low discipline, and shortages of water and equipment. Troops reportedly fear voicing concerns to commanders during inspections.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a missile strike on a civilian target in Odesa Oblast.
Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company, has stored 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas for the upcoming winter, reaching nearly 76% of its target of 13.2 bcm by November 1. This target serves as a reserve beyond anticipated consumption, providing a safety cushion for the colder months. Last year, Ukraine consumed 6.7 bcm during the heating season. Despite facing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure this spring, Naftogaz has continued to build its gas reserves. Additionally, in the first half of 2024, Ukraine’s largest gas producer, Ukrgasvydobuvannya, reported an 8.8% increase in gas production over the previous year, with Naftogaz Group companies overall boosting production by 8%.
Ukraine has reached a preliminary agreement to restructure its $23 billion external debt, which was originally frozen at the start of the Russian invasion. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that the deal with Eurobond holders could save Ukraine $11.4 billion over three years and $22.75 billion by 2033. Key investors include Amundi SA, BlackRock Inc, and Amia Capital LLP. A formal voting process among bondholders will soon be initiated to finalize the restructuring. Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko stated that the funds saved will help maintain Ukraine’s macro-financial stability and cover urgent needs amid the ongoing conflict. The deal proposes exchanging current Eurobonds for new ones, reducing the nominal value by 37% initially and the net present value by about 60%. This restructuring is crucial as failing to secure it would risk Ukraine defaulting after August 1. The Ukrainian parliament has also extended the government’s ability to suspend debt payments until October 1, aiding in financial management during the war.
Hungary and Slovakia have requested the European Commission to mediate with Ukraine following Kyiv’s intensified sanctions on Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, which disrupted oil supplies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated that the sanctions, which took effect in June 2024, prevent Ukraine from being a transit route for Lukoil’s oil, although other Russian oil exporters are unaffected. This has caused supply shortages in Budapest, which relies on Russia for 70% of its oil, half of which is provided by Lukoil. Szijjarto warned that if the European Commission does not address this within three days, they will take the matter to court, claiming that Ukraine’s actions violate the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. The transit through the southern part of the Druzhba Pipeline in Ukraine was halted on July 18. Hungary, a close ally of Russia within the EU, has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia and resisted Ukraine’s integration into Western alliances.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 21
A Russian drone attacked a farmer operating a combine harvester in Sumy, Ukraine, killing him and injuring his helper. The incident occurred around 4:40 p.m. on Sunday in Bilopillia.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian attacks over the past day have injured nine people, including a 52-year-old man. The shelling has also resulted in damage to critical infrastructure, a school, a printing house, high-rise buildings, and residential properties.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian forces conducted artillery and drone attacks on the Nikopol district on July 21, injuring an 89-year-old woman and causing damage to a recreation center, power lines, gas pipelines, and houses, as stated by Governor Serhii Lysak. Today the city of Nikopol was again shelled by Russian forces, resulting in injuries to at least five people. This attack led to a 37-year-old man being hospitalized in moderate condition and four others receiving outpatient treatment.
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast resulted in one fatality and five injuries, according to Governor Vadym Filashkin. The incidents included one death in Nelipivka and injuries in Pivnichne (two), Toretsk, Hrodivka, and Kostiantynivka (one each).
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is expanding its defense capabilities through significant collaborations and investments. On July 18, the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency secured over 20 contracts with leading global defense manufacturers, emphasizing the need for diverse weapons suppliers, as noted by Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov. Additionally, Ukroboronprom, a Ukrainian state-owned firm, has partnered with two Czech companies to build a new small arms ammunition factory in Ukraine. Furthermore, an agreement signed on July 19 between Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and UK Defense Minister John Healey involves a two-billion-pound loan to enhance Ukraine’s defensive capacity, including new weapons purchases.
Ukraine is ramping up its domestic drone production, targeting to build at least 1 million drones in 2024 for long-range strikes on Russian military targets.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine continues to receive substantial military support from international partners, significantly bolstered by a Czech-led ammunition initiative. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed the arrival of the first 50,000 artillery shells from this initiative, with some already deployed to the frontlines. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky announced additional deliveries, aiming to provide a total of 500,000 shells by year-end, as echoed by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Lipavsky, speaking in Brussels, revealed plans to further expand this support to 800,000 shells, contingent on securing more funding from allies. This initiative, which began earlier this year to address Ukraine’s ammunition shortages, anticipates further deliveries of 100,000 rounds in July and August. Eighteen countries have pledged support, with 15 having already met their financial commitments. Recent developments also include a bilateral security agreement signed during Prime Minister Shmyhal’s visit to Prague, extending Czech support into 2025.
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated that Latvia, in collaboration with the U.K., is sending over 500 drones to Ukraine as part of an international coalition formed to supply crucial battlefield drones. This dispatch is part of a wider commitment to deliver more than 2,500 combat drones, valued at 4 million euros. The coalition, now including the Czech Republic among its 16 members, aims to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities. Additionally, Latvia has dedicated around 20 million euros this year both to the coalition and to expanding its own drone capabilities.
The European Union is set to transfer the first $1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in early August, as announced by EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell. These funds are earmarked for purchasing priority military equipment such as air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition. This decision follows the EU ambassadors’ agreement on May 8 to allocate windfall profits from the $300 billion of Russian assets frozen since the 2022 invasion, largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, towards Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction. While the U.S. has considered seizing these assets, the EU plans to utilize the generated profits, expecting to provide Ukraine with about 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) annually.
Bulgaria is considering transferring surplus military ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, according to acting Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov. This potential aid follows previous contributions and will include compensation arrangements with an ally country, like earlier transfers. While the decision requires approval from the Bulgarian government and coordination with partners and Kyiv, Bulgaria has increasingly supported Ukraine since the onset of the war, including sending armored vehicles and air defense missiles in recent months.
French authorities have rejected dozens of accreditation applications for the 2024 Paris Olympics due to suspicions of foreign interference by Russia and Belarus, as reported by Politico. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin noted that out of 4,340 applications denied for various reasons, some were specifically due to concerns over Russian and Belarusian applicants. The rejections are part of enhanced security measures including nearly 1 million background checks to address cybersecurity, disinformation, and terrorism threats. Darmanin highlighted the risk of espionage and potential cyberattacks, citing refused entries for many posing as journalists. The Olympics, scheduled for July 26 to August 11, will feature 140 Ukrainian athletes—their smallest team ever—and Russian and Belarusian athletes competing as neutrals without national symbols.
Two new F-16 fighter jets have been delivered to Slovakia, the first installment of a total of 14 jets set to replace the Soviet-era aircraft that Slovakia donated to Ukraine. Slovakia has previously provided Ukraine with 13 MiG-29 jets to aid in their defense against Russia’s invasion. Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer, confirmed that the remaining 12 F-16s will arrive by year-end. The procurement was initially agreed in 2018 but was delayed due to the COVID pandemic. Slovakia’s political stance has changed following the 2023 election and the formation of Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government, which has ceased military donations to Ukraine but allows commercial arms sales. The new defense minister, Robert Kalinak, criticized the previous administration for weakening Slovakia’s defense by transferring the MiGs, terming it “treason.” In response, citizens dissatisfied with the government’s stance initiated a fundraising campaign titled “Ammunition for Ukraine,” successfully raising 4 million euros from over 65,000 donors to support Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Ukrainian Refugees
In Warsaw, Poland, two 15-year-old boys were stabbed by a 26-year-old Uzbek man in Bródno Park, as reported by Gazeta Wyborcza. The assailant, who was carrying a backpack linked to a local food delivery service, did not have a clear motive for the attack. The teenagers, who sustained injuries to their arms and stomach, are currently hospitalized, though their condition remains undisclosed. This incident adds to a recent pattern of attacks involving Ukrainian nationals in Europe, including a severe stabbing of a Ukrainian teenager in Dortmund, Germany, and the fatal stabbings of two Ukrainian basketball players, Volodymyr Yermakov and Artem Kozachenko, also in Germany. While the Kyiv Basketball Federation suggests these attacks could be hate-motivated, German police have not confirmed any political motives.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A power outage in Russia has halted water supply from the Don River to Russian-occupied Donetsk and left about a million people without electricity across several Russian regions and parts of occupied Crimea. This outage followed disruptions at the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant on July 20, which also affected the newly constructed Don-Donbas canal’s pumping stations, leading to a complete cessation of its operations. Repairs are expected to take months, exacerbating water supply issues in Donetsk, where the Siversky Donets-Donbass water pipeline is already non-functional due to ongoing hostilities. Additionally, widespread blackouts in Crimea have been attributed to a heatwave, prompting the introduction of temporary electricity supply schedules. Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev also reported a drone attack in the area, claiming over 26 drones were downed.
Russian authorities in occupied Crimea have started dismantling the last remaining Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in Yevpatoria, reported by Voice of Crimea. This church, distinct from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, which has alleged ties to Russia, has been under legal pressure for years and was recently ordered to be demolished. The demolition began on July 21, with parts of the building being systematically removed. The repression extends beyond the OCU, as Russia has targeted various non-conforming religious groups in Crimea, leading to the closure of the OCU and the expulsion of its priests from the peninsula. The Russian Orthodox Church has taken over many churches previously belonging to the OCU or the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate in occupied regions, and religious persecution has affected a wide spectrum of faiths including Muslims, Catholics, and Evangelicals.
Russia News
Ukrainian drones targeted the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, causing significant damage and fires at this major Black Sea oil terminal. The attack, involving at least eight drones, resulted in two powerful explosions and further damage to the infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov Oblast was also struck, resulting in additional fires and infrastructure damage. Local crews managed to localize the fires with no casualties reported. Russian air defenses claimed to have shot down 75 drones in response to these attacks. Officials in Krasnodar Krai acknowledged multiple drone intercepts, with debris from these contributing to the damage at the Tuapse refinery, though these fires were later extinguished. The full extent of the damage at both sites is still under assessment. These strikes are part of a broader pattern of Ukrainian operations targeting Russian oil facilities, significantly impacting Russia’s oil production capabilities, especially those intended for export. This has sparked criticism from Russian milbloggers about the government’s failure to protect critical infrastructure.
Russia is revising its legal framework within its counterterrorism strategy to broadly redefine terms such as “Russophobia,” “xenophobia,” and “radicalism.” These changes significantly widen the scope of what can be prosecuted as extremism by targeting domestic opposition to the Kremlin’s policies, including its actions in Ukraine, and link opposition to ethnic intolerance and support for states viewed as unfriendly to Russia. This expansion potentially increases prosecutions of critics under these expansive and vague categories. Additionally, the new draft of the counterterrorism strategy seeks to equate opposition to Kremlin policies with opposition to Russian society and culture. This aims to promote self-censorship among dissenters by linking criticism of government actions to “radical nationalism” and “neo-Nazism,” while emphasizing strengthening traditional Russian values and controlling narratives to support the Kremlin’s military actions and its stance against what it labels as hostile states.
In Kursk Oblast, Russian milblogger Roman Alekhin was appointed as a volunteer advisor to the regional governor, Alexei Smirnov. This move is seen as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to engage critical voices by offering them positions that increase their allegiance while allowing them to influence policy. Alekhin, known for his previous critiques of regional policies and a public spat with Smirnov, views his new role as an opportunity to implement his security and development ideas. This appointment follows a pattern where the Kremlin has co-opted other critical milbloggers by offering them prominent roles and awards, thus promoting loyalty while addressing dissent.
Alsu Kurmasheva, a journalist with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and dual U.S.-Russian citizenship, has been sentenced to six and a half years in prison by a court in Tatarstan, Russia, for “spreading false information” about the Russian Armed Forces. The sentencing occurred on July 19 during a secret trial. Kurmasheva has been detained since October 2023 following her arrest linked to a book she contributed to, which opposed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Her detention stemmed from a trip to Russia in May 2023 for a family emergency, during which her passports were seized, preventing her return to her family in Prague. This case and her detention have been condemned internationally, including by the EU and various NGOs. This marks the second sentencing of a U.S. journalist in Russia since the Ukrainian invasion began, following Evan Gershkovich’s 16-year sentence for alleged espionage.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
An investigation by the Insider reveals that Russia employs “gulag-style” abuse to discipline its soldiers in Ukraine, continuing a history of military hazing dating back to the Soviet era. The report highlights that Russian commanders use “punishment squads” to target soldiers for a range of offenses, from disobeying orders to alcohol abuse, subjecting them to beatings and confinement in pits. This abuse is particularly directed at the large number of convicts recruited to bolster ranks thinned by heavy casualties. Traditional verbal reprimands and fines are ineffective with these recruits, leading to increasingly severe disciplinary measures. Additionally, those involved in punishment duties often avoid more perilous combat roles, aligning with Soviet and post-Soviet military practices. The severity of the discipline reflects the desperation to control personnel unwilling to partake in high-casualty “human wave” tactics seen as suicidal.
Russia’s Allies
Suspected Russian-linked buyers are acquiring dozens of vessels capable of transporting liquified natural gas (LNG), possibly to expand Moscow’s “ghost fleet” used to circumvent Western sanctions, the Financial Times reported. This fleet has been used to sidestep the G7-imposed $60 per barrel oil price cap since late 2022. Despite LNG facing fewer sanctions than oil, recent measures, including an EU ban on LNG transshipment in June, have begun to tighten restrictions on the sector. Mysterious companies, mostly based in the United Arab Emirates, have bought over 50 LNG ships since the second quarter of 2023, mimicking the tactics used for oil tankers. Despite EU aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuel dependence by 2027, LNG imports from Russia hit record highs last year, with Russia temporarily surpassing the U.S. as Europe’s leading LNG supplier in May. The EU has taken steps to reduce Russian gas revenues by banning the transshipment of Russian LNG at European ports and allowing member states to ban Russian LNG imports outright, with some countries like the U.K., Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland already implementing or planning such bans.
In 2024, shipments of semiconductors and other dual-use goods from China and Hong Kong to Russia decreased by 20%, as reported by Reuters citing U.S. Commerce Department data. Despite this decline, both regions continue to serve as significant transshipment hubs, with Hong Kong shipments falling by 28% and mainland China by 19% between January and May. The U.S. has expressed cautious optimism about slowing these trades but remains concerned, particularly about China’s role. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on entities linked to the Russian military and engaged with companies whose products appear in the conflict zones. Meanwhile, Hong Kong, following directives from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, claims to enforce only United Nations sanctions. Despite the overall decrease, a report indicates that from August to December 2023, Hong Kong firms shipped nearly $2 billion worth of goods to Russia, including $750 million worth of banned high-tech components. This activity has raised concerns about the role of Hong Kong-based companies in undermining international security by facilitating the transfer of sensitive technologies to sanctioned Russian entities.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications highlighted the top five Russian information operations of the past week, all aimed at stirring domestic unrest in Ukraine and straining its relationships with Western allies.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com