Summary of the day: The Russian military has expanded the Central Grouping of Forces’ area of responsibility in Donetsk Oblast, shifting focus from rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces targeted the Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea with an ATACMS strike. In Russia, the FSB arrested former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges, continuing the Kremlin’s purge of senior defense officials. The European Union has begun transferring proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Additionally, Russian forces reported minor advancements near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, amid enhanced integration of cyber and conventional warfare capabilities.
Picture of the day:
Athletes from Ukraine’s delegation sail in a boat along the river Seine at the start of the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games in France. (Aytac Unal / Anadolu via Getty Images)
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued their discussions on Valaam Island in the Republic of Karelia.
Romania’s Defense Ministry denied videos claiming its air defense units shot down Russian drones over Ukraine, stating these claims are false. The ministry clarified that Russia was targeting Ukraine’s port infrastructure on the Danube, not Romanian territory. The Romanian Air Force scrambled F-16 jets after Russia attacked Izmail in southwestern Ukraine on July 24. Drone debris was found in Romania’s Plauru on July 25. The ministry confirmed Romanian forces did not engage Russian drones, and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu noted that any action against drones would have to occur on Ukrainian territory, which is not currently authorized. Romania has implemented protective measures for its citizens near the Ukrainian border, including building air raid shelters and deploying drone defense systems.
The Road To Peace
Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, in an interview with Euronews, expressed concerns that a ceasefire without Russian troop withdrawal would allow Russia to strengthen its position and resume attacks on Ukraine. He highlighted that 25% of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian control under such a ceasefire scenario. Despite calls from countries like Turkey and Hungary for ceasefire and peace talks, Ukraine insists on peace only through the full withdrawal of Russian forces in accordance with international law. Bodnar also mentioned that proposals lacking specifics, such as those from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, were dismissed. Additionally, Bodnar emphasized Ukraine’s desire to join NATO for security and peace, positioning it as a buffer between NATO and Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces launched an ATACMS missile strike against Russia’s Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea, targeting an ammunition depot and a radar station at a nearby air defense site. Despite Russian air defenses intercepting two missiles, explosions triggered air alerts across the Crimean Peninsula, including in Novofedorivka, Okunivka, and Simferopol. Witnesses reported a fire and detonations of ammunition at the Saky airfield. The Telegram channel Astra noted that the attack destroyed another radar station and injured two Russian servicemen. A separate missile strike damaged a Russian air defense site near Shovkovychne. Additionally, Ukrainian drone attacks targeted a Russian coast guard base, hitting a command center and an ammunition depot. The airfield, used by Russia to control Black Sea airspace and launch strikes on Ukraine, was reportedly protected by air defense systems that failed. Residents also reported explosions in Dobrushino, Novoozerne, and Yevpatoria, with sightings of drones. Previous Ukrainian attacks on Crimea have targeted Russian military assets, including a ferry used for transporting equipment.
Russia is deploying a new type of cheaply-made drone to locate air defense systems and serve as decoys, according to Andrii Cherniak, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence. These drones, made of plywood and plastic foam, join the thousands of Shahed-type drones Russia has used since fall 2022. The new drones can carry cameras and Ukrainian SIM cards to send footage back to Russia, revealing the location of Ukrainian defenses. They have been used in five attacks in July, including a strike on July 25-26. Images of the new drones suggest they differ from Shahed drones, with features like the Russian ZALA 421-20 reconnaissance drone, although this type is no longer common.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces conducted a cross-border assault into Sotnytskyi Kozachok, northwest of Kharkiv and on the Belgorod border, on July 25. However, it has not been confirmed Russian forces are present in the area. Additionally, footage from today was shared by a milblogger allegedly showing Russian glide bombs targeting a Ukrainian military warehouse in Bilopillia, Sumy Oblast.
Ongoing clashes occurred north and northeast of Kharkiv City without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Despite Russian claims of seizing Hlyboke, no visual proof supports Russian control in the area. The fighting centered around Hlyboke, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, and Tykhe, with both sides engaging in positional battles. Ukrainian forces reportedly faced unsuccessful Russian counterattacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Tykhe. Additionally, the Ukrainian General Staff noted Russian glide bomb strikes in these areas.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have advanced near Svatove and along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage shows movements east of Andriivka, west of Svatove. Russian military bloggers report additional advances in areas south of Berestove and north of Pishchane towards Hlushkivka and central Stelmakhivka, with Russian forces allegedly breaking through near Stelmakhivka. However, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian offensive operations continued in multiple areas including northeast of Kupyansk, near Synkivka, and in the Serebryanske forest south of Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
The Russian military has expanded the role of the Central Grouping of Forces in Donetsk Oblast, transitioning their focus from Avdiivka to managing broader offensive operations across the region. Originally concentrated on Avdiivka, where they secured tactical gains earlier in the year, the Russian forces have now shifted their attention towards Toretsk, significantly enlarging the operational scope of the Central Grouping of Forces. This strategic maneuver has transferred substantial resources from Avdiivka and represents one of the largest operations since Fall 2023. The Ukrainian defenses have meanwhile strengthened, which has stabilized the front lines and slowed the pace of Russian advances, reflecting a strategic shift and a new emphasis on achieving tactical objectives beyond the initial area of Avdiivka.
The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces’ area of responsibility (AOR) suggests that the Russian military no longer expects quick tactical victories in Avdiivka. Instead, the extended AOR from southwest Donetsk City to Toretsk is redirecting Russian resources, reducing the focus on making significant advances around Avdiivka. The Central Grouping of Forces likely doesn’t have the reserves to both intensify Avdiivka operations and maintain offensive pressure towards Toretsk and Donetsk City. This strategic adjustment aims to keep consistent offensive pressure across the front, focusing on prolonged operations rather than rapid advances.
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive near Siversk without altering the frontline. The operations extended to areas east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Spirne and Ivano-Darivka, and south near Mykolaivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces maintained offensive operations near Chasiv Yar without any confirmed frontline changes. These operations occurred north near Hryhorivka, northwest near Mayske, northeast near Kalynivka, east near Ivanivske, and directly around Chasiv Yar. Russian sources reported Ukrainian counterattacks near the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, and a Russian military blogger noted a recent crossing of the canal near Kalynivka, though it’s unclear if Russian forces secured these positions.
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Toretsk, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian military bloggers claimed gains of up to 200 meters near Niu York, 600 meters towards Oleksandropil, and additional advances southwest of Yurivka as well as in Pivnichne and Zalizne, all surrounding Toretsk. However, these claims have not been verified. Russian offensive operations also continued east, southeast, and south of Toretsk near Pivnichne, Druzhba, Zalizne, and Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made advances near Avdiivka, with geolocated footage showing Russian forces raising a flag in Yasnobrodivka, suggesting control of the area. Further footage indicates captures near Prohres and Lozuvatske, northwest of Avdiivka. Russian military bloggers reported additional advances east of Lysychne, Vesele, and within Vovche and Novoselivka Persha, all northwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces also pressed offensive operations in the surrounding regions of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Timofiivka, Novozhelanne, and Karlivka
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made advancements west and southwest of Donetsk City, with specific movements observed in northern Krasnohorivka. Russian military bloggers also reported an advance of up to 700 meters in eastern Kostyantynivka, although these claims lack independent verification. Russian offensive operations continued in areas west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka, and southwest near Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
An inspection of Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade, ordered by the Commander-in-Chief due to recent losses, found “management decisions” and other factors that could “negatively influence combat.” No criminal charges were warranted, but officials were held accountable. The inspection followed accusations by medic Kateryna Polishchuk, who alleged misconduct by the brigade’s commander, Bohdan Shevchuk. The brigade, deployed near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast, has faced heavy Russian pressure. The investigation, ordered on July 15, did not name individuals but aimed to prevent future issues. Polishchuk, a former Azovstal defender, criticized Shevchuk’s appointment and leadership, prompting the probe.
Russian forces launched a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault in the Kurakhove direction, west and southwest of Donetsk City, involving three tanks, 13 armored vehicles, 12 motorcycles, and about 200 personnel. This followed a significant mechanized assault on July 24 near Kostyantynivka, which resulted in considerable vehicle losses. Ukrainian defense forces reported destroying one tank and two armored vehicles during the July 25 assault. Russia’s continued use of large numbers of armored vehicles for limited tactical gains suggests poor operational planning, potentially leading to greater costs in equipment and effectiveness over time.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Positional battles occurred near Velyka Novosilka and Rozdolne on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces pressed ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed changes to the frontline. The engagements concentrated around Robotyne, extending to Novoandriivka north, Shcherbaky and Yurivka northwest, and Mala Tokmachka northeast of Robotyne
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional fighting occurred near Krynky in east Kherson Oblast, with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. They fired an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Rostov Oblast and 22 Shahed drones from Crimea and Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 20 of these drones over Kherson, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv oblasts. The strikes resulted in damage to Ukrenergo energy facilities in Zhytomyr and Chernihiv and impacted a hostel in Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. Additionally, Russian military footage claimed a hit on a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, where industrial facilities were also reported damaged.
Ukraine’s energy supply is improving after weeks of record-breaking heat and power plant repairs, according to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of Ukrenergo. Ukraine had started rolling blackouts on May 15 due to Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure. The energy deficit worsened in mid-July during a heatwave, but cooler weather and completed power plant repairs have eased the situation. Kudrytskyi expects conditions to continue improving unless new large-scale damage occurs, with fewer and simpler blackout schedules now in place.
Kharkiv will rename three metro stations and 48 streets to remove Russian references. Heroes of Labor metro station becomes Zavodska, Malyshev Factory becomes Saltivska, and Gagarin Avenue becomes Aerospace Avenue. Streets like Lermontov Street will be renamed to honor Ukrainian figures. This move follows laws banning Soviet and Russian names. A Kharkiv City Council working group chose the new names.
Ukrainian law enforcement suspects the murderer of lawmaker and professor Iryna Farion may be linked to the Russian neo-Nazi movement. Farion, 60, was shot outside her home in Lviv on July 19 and later died. The suspect, 18-year-old Viacheslav Zinchenko from Dnipro, was detained on July 25. Authorities are investigating his motives and connections. Zinchenko’s phone contained suspicious material, and his search history included other politicians. A video of the murder spread on Russian social media, with a neo-Nazi group claiming responsibility. Farion was a linguistics professor and former nationalist party member known for her controversial views.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 0
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
On July 25, Ukraine’s parliamentary speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk, warned against passing a demobilization law, likening it to a historic mistake made during the Ukrainian People’s Republic’s war with the Bolsheviks in 1918. Currently, most Ukrainian soldiers have been serving without long-term breaks since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Stefanchuk emphasized the importance of not repeating past errors and highlighted the need for vacations, rotations, or other privileges for soldiers. A new mobilization law was adopted in April, but provisions for demobilization and rotation were removed. The Defense Ministry was tasked with drafting a new law within eight months to address these issues, which is still pending.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union transferred €1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to support its defense and reconstruction efforts, announced European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This financial aid is part of a broader plan to utilize profits from the approximately $300 billion in Russian assets frozen at the start of the 2022 invasion, with two-thirds held by Euroclear in Belgium. EU ambassadors agreed in May to allocate these profits to Ukraine, which is expected to receive around €3 billion annually. While some G7 members suggested seizing Russian assets outright, the EU opted to use the profits due to legal and fiscal concerns. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia would respond to the EU’s actions.
Ukraine will receive $7.9 billion in direct budget support by November as part of a $61 billion aid package from the U.S., Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, announced on July 26. The U.S. Congress passed this aid package in April after months of debate. The $7.9 billion will be transferred soon, with the rest by October’s end. This support will help Ukraine maintain essential public services. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated Ukraine has already received at least $12 billion this year to address its budget deficit and needs $42 billion in 2024.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin reported on July 24 that in 2023, Russia invested over 1.26 billion rubles (approximately $14.6 million) in socioeconomic programs in occupied Ukraine. This funding involved 26 state-owned companies and 82 federal regions, aimed at integrating occupied areas with Russian systems. Key developments included the construction of over 19,000 infrastructure projects, 200 medical facilities, 1,300 educational institutions, and 8,000 kilometers of roads.
Kremlin officials are attempting to mitigate backlash over their involvement in the forced deportation and Russification of Ukrainian children. On July 23, Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova met with Turkish Ambassador to Russia, Tanju Bilgic, discussing efforts to reunite Ukrainian children with their families in both Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Artem Lysohor, head of the Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, reported on July 25 that an unspecified number of children from Luhansk Oblast were relocated to a tent camp in Novosibirsk Oblast.
Russia News
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges. Bulgakov is accused of using his position to favor the Gryazinsky Food Plant in Ministry of Defense (MoD) contracts, allegedly supplying low-quality food at inflated prices. This arrest is part of a broader Kremlin crackdown on senior defense officials, initiated in April 2024. Bulgakov, who managed Russian military logistics from 2008 to 2022, had been under investigation since his reassignment from the MoD in 2022 and was dismissed due to logistic failures during the Ukraine invasion. Now in pre-trial detention in Moscow’s Butyrka prison, his arrest has been viewed positively by Russian military bloggers, citing his role in persistent logistics issues. The crackdown also saw the recent arrest of Andrei Belkov, head of a military construction company, and investigations into former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov. In May, Lieutenant Generals Yuri Kuznetsov and Vadim Shamarin were detained on various charges, including bribery.
Russian security forces in Dagestan detained several individuals who threatened to detonate an improvised explosive device in an apartment building in Kaspiysk. The building was evacuated, and the suspects were apprehended without incident. Following the operation, a spokesperson confirmed that there was no further threat to public safety. This incident is part of a broader pattern of isolated terrorist activities that Russia has been facing, including recent significant attacks.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that Russian intelligence has enhanced the integration of their cyber and conventional military forces. Specifically, Russian cyber units are now focusing on disrupting Ukrainian military logistics and operations by targeting mobile devices at the frontlines, moving away from attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets. They attempt to infiltrate Ukrainian military devices using malware disguised as military apps or through hacking encrypted messaging apps like Telegram, Signal, and WhatsApp. RUSI suggests that while the current focus is on tactical disruptions, Russian intelligence may aim to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the future.
Yevhen Serebryakov, accused of planting a bomb under a car in Moscow on July 24 that injured a GRU officer and his wife, claims he was acting on instructions from the Ukrainian security service (SBU) in exchange for citizenship and $10-20,000. He was arrested in Turkey shortly after the incident and extradited to Russia. Serebryakov allegedly contacted the SBU in February 2023 and was directed by an agent named Ilya to carry out the attack. The bomb detonated under a Toyota Land Cruiser, severely injuring the officer and his wife, and damaging five other cars. There was initial confusion about the victim’s identity, as another officer with the same last name was reported injured. Russian authorities highlighted international cooperation with Turkey in securing Serebryakov’s arrest. Kremlin state media released a video of Serebryakov confessing, though these claims are unverified. Kyiv denied involvement, with Ukrainian adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggesting a gas equipment malfunction in the car.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson, Andrii Yusov, reported significant Russian personnel and equipment losses in Ukraine, leading to recruitment challenges and reliance on outdated Soviet-era weapons due to production issues. Yusov highlighted that high casualties reported for May and June are impacting Russia’s combat effectiveness. Moscow has responded by offering substantial financial incentives to boost enlistment, with Moscow’s Mayor signing a decree for a record signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles ($21,200). Despite these measures, Russia faces difficulties in modernizing its forces and producing new equipment, exacerbated by international sanctions. According to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russian tank losses have surpassed 8,000 units, indicating that Russia has exhausted its pre-war operational tanks and is now deploying older reserves.
Russian regions are increasing monetary incentives to boost military recruitment. The head of Rostov Oblast, Vasily Golubev, announced that from July 27 to August 31, new military recruits signing service contracts in Rostov will receive a one-time payment of 1.2 million rubles ($13,900). This bonus is available to residents of Rostov as well as individuals from other regions who sign up in Rostov Oblast. Similar financial incentives are being offered in other Russian oblasts as well.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), in collaboration with Rosgvardia, is working to enhance medical services for Russian servicemembers within the country. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov signed an agreement that allows military personnel from both groups to access medical services at MoD and Rosgvardia facilities. This initiative is part of efforts to improve care for personnel engaged in Ukraine. Additionally, deputy defense ministers visited a military hospital in the Southern Military District, noting ongoing construction with a completion target of February 2025, underscoring the importance of medical infrastructure amid growing concerns over the care of wounded soldiers returning from Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is actively enhancing training for servicemembers, with recent inspections by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov at a Leningrad Military District (LMD) training center. Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov noted that instructors with experience in Ukraine are leading all exercises there. Belousov also highlighted plans to further improve training programs and construct more training grounds in the LMD.
The Russian defense manufacturer “Laboratory 13” announced the creation of the “Karman,” a miniature drone suppressor currently being tested with Russian forces in Ukraine. The device is portable and can operate autonomously, receiving signals from Laboratory 13’s “Oko-P” drone detection systems.
On July 25, MiS Design Bureau, a Russian drone manufacturer, announced the start of serial production of the MiS-35 strike and reconnaissance hexacopter drone, an analog to Ukraine’s “Baba Yaga” drone. The MiS-35 features a maximum payload capacity of 4.5 kilograms and a range of up to nine kilometers.
Russia’s Allies
The Russian news outlet Vedomosti reported that some Chinese banks have started informally marking yuan notes involved in transactions with Russian companies as “dirty.” These banks are reportedly reluctant to accept yuan that show “Russian traces,” with at least one bank refusing to accept yuan notes traded on the Moscow Exchange. This caution follows concerns about potential secondary sanctions from the US against institutions facilitating Russian sanction evasion efforts.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Hong Kong to prevent Russia from using it to bypass sanctions. He met with Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee and emphasized that sanctions are crucial to weakening Russia’s war efforts. Kuleba also discussed trade and investment opportunities for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Despite sanctions, restricted items like microchips still reach Russia via third-party countries, including Hong Kong. A New York Times investigation revealed that four Hong Kong-based shell companies are sending military technology to Russia.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine in the third week of August, marking his first trip since Russia’s invasion. The visit follows an invitation from President Volodymyr Zelensky. Recent discussions between Indian and Ukrainian officials aimed at strengthening bilateral relations. Modi previously met Zelensky at the G7 summit in June, emphasizing dialogue for peace. Modi will travel via Poland for the visit.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
The Kremlin is escalating its efforts to control internet use in Russia, promoting a culture of self-censorship and planning to restrict access to YouTube. Russian authorities, citing violations and disrespect by YouTube, are considering blocking it and encouraging the use of Kremlin-influenced social media platforms like Vkontakte’s (VK) Video service. Russian internet regulators are expected to throttle YouTube’s speed in the coming days, aligning with moves to shift Russian users from YouTube to VK, which plans to host Russian-language content from YouTube by Fall 2024.
The Kremlin is intensifying its censorship efforts in Russia, mandating the use of Kremlin-approved software on digital devices and promoting a culture of compliance. The Russian Cabinet of Ministers has required that smartphones, tablets, computers, and smart TVs include pre-installed Russian software. Additionally, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that laws against discrediting civil servants and the military should apply universally, both online and offline, reflecting an expansion of Russian censorship laws.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com