Summary of the day: Russian forces carried out several mechanized assaults ranging from platoon to battalion size in western Donetsk Oblast, part of a predicted summer offensive. Despite these efforts, there is a lack of broader operational capacity for a renewed major offensive in Donetsk or elsewhere. This ongoing offensive, though costly in terms of armored vehicle losses and without significant territorial gains, aims to wear down Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, North Korea is reportedly increasing its military support to Russia. In a separate development, Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian oil depot in Kursk Oblast. Additionally, Russia continues to promote educational initiatives focusing on “information and hybrid warfare,” and there is a push within Russia to establish a state ideology denying the legitimacy of a sovereign Ukrainian state. Finally, financial incentives for military recruits are being increased across Russian regions, including St. Petersburg, amid efforts to indoctrinate deported Ukrainian children with military-patriotic education programs.
Picture of the day:
Destroyed seats from a stadium in Kharkiv are displayed at the Ukraine House in the Nations parc as part of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. (Olympia de Maismont / AFP)
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko pardoned German citizen Rico Krieger, who was on death row following a trial in Minsk. Krieger was sentenced to death on June 24 for six crimes, including “terrorism” and “mercenary activity.” Much of his trial was held behind closed doors. The Viasna Human Rights Centre suggested the charges might be linked to the Kalinouski Regiment, Belarusian volunteers fighting against Russia in Ukraine. Belarus is the only European country that still imposes the death penalty. Minsk and Berlin were consulting over Krieger’s fate, with Germany providing consular support.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian offensive operations in Ukraine are designed to wear down Ukrainian defenses over time, despite not gaining significant ground. This strategy aims to diminish Ukrainian capabilities and maintain control over captured areas, with the goal of outlasting Western support for Ukraine.
The Russian Navy started scheduled naval exercises. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the drills involve about 300 vessels, 50 aircraft, 200 pieces of special military equipment, and 20,000 personnel across the Northern, Pacific, and Baltic fleets and the Caspian Flotilla. These exercises aim to test the readiness of naval command and crews and will last several days. Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk noted that Ukraine is monitoring these activities, including practical shooting exercises in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian Naval Spokesperson Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that Russian ships in the Black Sea are turning off their automatic identification system (AIS) to hide their movements and the transit of stolen goods from occupied Ukraine. Disabling AIS typically violates the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive operations near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, without any confirmed territorial changes. The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces reported that Russian forces are using hunting rifles to counter Ukrainian drones near Hlyboke. Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted counterattacks near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya, but were unsuccessful. They also reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes with FAB-250 and FAB-3000 bombs against Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk and the outskirts of Lyptsi.
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline soldiers in the Vovchansk district of the Kharkiv sector on Monday to deliver awards and celebrate Special Operations Forces Day. Zelensky honored the Special Forces warriors, emphasizing their role in one of the most challenging areas of the front. He highlighted the importance of the Kharkiv sector and praised the SSO fighters for their successful operations amid the Russian invasion from the northeast. “Please take care of yourselves. The whole country is counting on you. We will definitely win,” Zelensky concluded.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but made no confirmed advances. They targeted areas southeast of Kupyansk near Pishchane, Novoosynove, and Stelmakhivka; northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka, Nevske, and Terny; and southwest of Kreminna in the Serebryanske forest.
Georgian national Bondo Gagnidze, a volunteer fighter in Ukraine, was killed in action in Luhansk Oblast, Georgia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed. Another Georgian fighter was wounded.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have continued their pattern of periodic and pulsating mechanized assaults across Donetsk Oblast, with five notable efforts in the western region indicating their sustained summer offensive strategy. Despite deploying substantial armored resources near locations like Kostyantynivka, and targeting areas such as Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka, these assaults have resulted only in marginal advances, underscoring Russia’s operational limitations and inability to initiate a broader offensive. Some assaults, particularly near Pobieda and Krasnohorivka, were notably unsuccessful. The shifting of elements from the Central Military District’s 90th Tank Division from Avdiivka to the southwest of Donetsk City suggests a strategic reprioritization intended to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses and achieve tactical gains, albeit limited. This ongoing military effort, likely at the maximum extent of current Russian capabilities, also reflects an adaptation following increased U.S. military support to Ukraine, which necessitated scaling back initial ambitions to seize extensive territories. Moreover, Russian official narratives, including those from President Putin, often portray these minor gains as significant victories, aiming to bolster domestic support through propaganda, while pushing their forces to maximize territorial advances despite the risk of significant losses.
The Russian military’s acceptance of substantial armored vehicle losses in periodic, localized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast without achieving significant advances is likely to strain their resources long-term. While Russian forces have enough armored vehicles to continue such assaults in the near to medium term, it’s uncertain if they can sustain large-scale operations across multiple front sectors without depleting their reserves. The strategy of pursuing limited tactical gains at the expense of high equipment losses, using aging Soviet-era stock, may prove increasingly costly. Additionally, the continued reluctance to adapt tactics or further mobilize the defense industry could exacerbate these challenges.
A Finnish volunteer fighter was killed in Donetsk Oblast in mid-July, marking the fourth Finnish national killed fighting for Ukraine since the invasion began, the Association of Finnish War Veterans confirmed. The Finnish Foreign Ministry verified the death, but the name was withheld at the family’s request. Details on the cause or specific location of death were not released.
Siversk
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Siversk area but made no confirmed advances. They attacked east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Spirne, Vyimka, and Ivano-Darivka, and south near Pereizne. Russian bloggers claimed that forces advanced up to two kilometers towards Pereizne and reached its southern outskirts, but these claims have not been confirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made a minor advance near Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage showed a Russian armored vehicle crossing the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal north of Chasiv Yar, but it was struck by Ukrainian forces before progressing further. Russian bloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced west of the canal and established positions in the Novyi and Zhovtneve districts of eastern Chasiv Yar. Additionally, Russian forces continued attacks north of Chasiv Yar near Hryhorivka and Kalynivka, northeast near Bohdanivka, and southeast near Klishchiivka
Toretsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Toretsk, with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming they seized Pivdenne, southeast of Toretsk. Russian bloggers also reported advances within Niu York, south of Toretsk, and near Druzhba, Zalizne, and Pivnichne, though these claims are unconfirmed. On Tuesday, Russian forces announced capturing Pivdenne, a village with a pre-war population of around 1,400, located six kilometers southeast of Toretsk. Moscow has recently claimed several small villages in the Donetsk region, despite not fully controlling it after its 2022 annexation. Russian forces have been advancing towards Toretsk, a town previously home to about 30,000 people.
Avdiivka
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Avdiivka during ongoing operations. Russian bloggers claimed breakthroughs near Vesele, seizing positions in eastern and central Vesele, advancing 1.3km west of Lozuvatske, and consolidating positions on the eastern outskirts of Timofiivka. They also reported advances east of Ivanivka and from Yasnobrodivka towards the Karlivske Reservoir. These claims have not been confirmed. Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Zelene Pole, Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Serhiivka, Lysychne, Zhelanne, and Prohres.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made tactical advances west of Donetsk City and marginally advanced northwest of Marinka. They continued attacks near Paraskoviivka. Russian forces are firing on Ukrainian forces along the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar highway, and drone units are operating near Pobieda.
Ukraine’s 79th Tavrian Air Assault Brigade stopped a large-scale Russian advance near Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, reported the Airborne Assault Troops Command. Russian forces used 10 tanks, 47 armored vehicles, 10 motorcycles, and one buggy in the attack. Ukrainian forces repelled the assault, causing 68 Russian casualties, including 36 killed and 32 injured. They also destroyed 12 armored vehicles, eight tanks, nine motorcycles, and one buggy.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Despite claims of significant Russian advances near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, these small settlements hold little operational importance and do not threaten key locations. Russian forces also seem unable to coordinate these attacks with larger operations near Donetsk City, limiting their overall impact.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid ongoing fighting. Geolocated footage from July 29 shows Russian forces advancing northwest of Robotyne. Battles continued near Robotyne and northeast near Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional fighting continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, including the islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an unspecified missile.
The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces warned that Russian actors and the FSB are increasingly trying to recruit Ukrainian citizens for spying and sabotage. Russian milbloggers shared footage of vehicles belonging to Ukrainian recruiting officials being set on fire, particularly in Odesa. The Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that Russian darknet sites are offering $1,500 to $2,000 for sabotage jobs to burn Ukrainian military vehicles. The Kremlin has been working to incite violent protests and anti-government activities in Ukraine through these efforts.
Ukraine might face minimal power outages in the next three months if Russia doesn’t attack its energy infrastructure again, said Yurii Boiko, advisor to the prime minister on energy issues. Russia’s spring attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused severe deficits and rolling blackouts. Boiko noted that increased electricity generation due to cooler weather and repaired facilities has balanced the energy situation. However, he stressed the need for more air defense systems to protect these facilities from future attacks. Earlier, Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytskyi mentioned that Ukraine’s energy supply is improving after a difficult period of heatwaves and repairs. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, lost nearly 90% of its generating capacity but aims to recover 60-70% by October.
Ukraine will likely need an additional $12-15 billion in foreign financial support next year as the war with Russia is expected to continue into 2025, Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said in an interview with RBC Ukraine. Foreign aid is crucial due to the economic pressure from the invasion. Marchenko mentioned ongoing discussions with international partners, including the IMF, for additional financial support. The IMF has allocated $15.6 billion to Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility, with disbursements until 2027. Ukraine received $42.5 billion in external financing last year and will need a similar amount this year. The government is also seeking new domestic revenue sources, including a proposed tax hike.
Ukraine needs to boost nuclear power to address electricity shortages caused by Russian attacks, said U.S. special representative Penny Pritzker during her Kyiv visit. Russia’s assaults have caused over $1 billion in grid damage. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains under Russian control. Ukraine is building new reactors at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant to increase capacity. DTEK warned of potential 6–7-hour daily electricity availability this winter, with up to 20-hour blackouts in a worst-case scenario.
In 2023, Ukraine’s top ten manufacturing companies earned a total of Hr.317.53 billion ($8.3 billion) in profits, according to Opendatabot. Zaporizhstal led with Hr.56.4 billion ($1.5 billion) in profits. Despite increased profits, some companies, like those owned by Rinat Akhmetov, faced net losses. Akhmetov’s enterprise reported a Hr.3.7 billion ($95.6 million) loss. Kamet Steel, another Akhmetov holding, had a net loss of less than Hr.1 billion ($26.2 million). ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih reported a Hr.12.2 billion ($319.3 million) loss but reduced its losses from the previous year. Interpipe earned Hr.20.5 billion ($538 million), and Zaporizhzhia Coke Plant made Hr.15.87 billion ($415.5 million). Ukrainian Armor’s revenue increased to Hr.32.42 billion ($1 billion). In the food industry, Roshen earned Hr.32.9 billion ($834 million), and Coca-Cola’s net revenue grew from Hr.43.5 million to Hr.1.6 billion. Agricultural sector leader Vinnytsia Poultry Farm earned Hr.39.25 billion ($1.1 billion), while Katerynopil Elevator earned Hr.22.32 billion ($584.5 million). Despite losses, these companies continue to operate and contribute significantly to Ukraine’s economy.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 14
- In Donetsk Oblast, a Russian attack on Toretsk killed three civilians and injured three others, reported Governor Vadym Filashkin. Another person was killed in Hrodivka, and two were injured in Siversk and Rih.
- A 71-year-old man was injured in a Russian attack on Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast
- Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast injured eight people and damaged critical infrastructure, port facilities, high-rise buildings, houses, and gas pipelines.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast. (Governor Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that Ukraine signed two contracts worth $121 million with domestic defense companies. Describing the deals as “critically important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Umerov emphasized the strengthening of the domestic defense industry and its contribution to the economy. The contracts were signed during a trip to Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts with President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 29. While specific companies and equipment were not disclosed, Umerov was shown inspecting mortar rounds and a truck-mounted machine gun. Ukraine is increasing domestic weapons production amid uncertainty about foreign supply. Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin noted that Ukraine’s defense industry has a capacity of $20 billion, but only up to $10 billion is available for purchases. Germany’s Rheinmetall plans to build four factories in Ukraine for military production. Ukraine aims to attract $10 billion in foreign investment for weapons production in 2024 under the “Manufacturing Freedom” campaign. President Zelensky stated that domestic production of equipment and weapons tripled in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. will arm dozens of F-16 jet fighters being sent to Ukraine with American-made missiles and other weapons, according to the Wall Street Journal. Ukraine is expecting at least 79 F-16s from the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway, with up to 20 arriving this year. Despite limited stocks, the Pentagon will provide air-to-ground munitions, precision-guidance kits for bombs, and advanced air-to-air missiles to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs. Weapons include AGM-88 HARM missiles, JDAM munitions, and GLSDB precision-guided munitions.
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, defense manufacturing in the West decreased, leading to reduced artillery training and wear on gun barrels, which typically last 1,500-2,000 rounds. However, the intense artillery war in Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion has depleted the UK’s stockpile of spare barrels for the AS 90 and L119 howitzers donated to Ukraine. To address this, the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) partnered with Sheffield Forgemasters to produce gun barrels. This will help maintain and repair critical artillery systems. The MoD announced a defense aid package for Ukraine, including 32 AS-90 barrels, 10 AS-90s, 90 Brimstone missiles, and 250,000 rounds of 50-caliber ammunition. Sheffield Forgemasters, nationalized in 2021, will also build a new large machining facility to boost industrial production for the UK and AUKUS defense programs.
The Czech government is considering involvement with the Ukrainian Legion in Poland, a volunteer unit of Ukrainians trained by the Polish military. They are gathering information before deciding. Czechia has trained over 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year. There are 570,000 Ukrainians in Czechia, including 380,000 refugees. The Ukrainian Legion recruits through consulates, with several thousand volunteers already signed up.
EU ambassadors are not supportive of Hungary’s and Slovakia’s complaints about Kyiv blocking Russian pipeline oil, Politico reported on July 29. Ukrainian sanctions halted supplies from Russia’s Lukoil to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline. Both countries accused Kyiv of violating its EU association agreement and threatened to block EU defense funds or halt their own energy supplies. EU diplomats expressed frustration privately, noting Hungary and Slovakia’s failure to reduce reliance on Russian oil, unlike other member states. Hungary has increased oil and gas trade with Russia, with Lukoil supplying 33% of Hungary’s and 40-45% of Slovakia’s crude oil imports. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto discussed the issue with Russian and Slovak counterparts, claiming Ukraine endangers energy security. Ukraine’s president’s office stated the ban aligns with sanctions against Lukoil.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Times reported that Russian authorities are indoctrinating deported Ukrainian children through military-patriotic education programs. The report stated that hundreds of Ukrainian children have been taken to Russia and are being taught military skills at Kremlin-backed camps. Over 330 children from occupied Ukraine are at a camp in Volgograd Oblast, learning to assemble and shoot rifles, fly drones, and perform other military tasks. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said these programs aim to instill hatred and violence against Ukraine in the children. This practice potentially violates international law.
Russian occupation officials are imposing movement restrictions in occupied Ukraine to force residents into obtaining Russian passports. Starting August 1, Kherson Oblast residents without Russian citizenship must apply for a pass to access areas within 15 kilometers of the Dnipro River. This requirement creates a disparity, giving Russian passport holders more freedom of movement. The restriction is likely aimed at pressuring residents to get Russian passports, especially if they have family in the restricted zone. Additionally, the pass application process allows occupation authorities to collect personal data on non-Russian citizens.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces struck the Logistics Center №43 oil depot in Vozy, Kursk Oblast causing a fire, the General Staff reported. Governor Alexei Smirnov said a Ukrainian drone strike hit three fuel tanks and that Russian forces intercepted four Ukrainian missiles over the Kurchatovsky and Oktyabrsky districts. Russian reports indicated that the drone attack on the oil depot and other targets near Ukraine’s northern border caused no injuries. The explosion at the oil depot led to a fire in three tanks, with social media reporting additional blasts near the airport. The attack was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) with the Armed Forces, and details on the damage are still being clarified.
Two Tu-22M3 bombers were damaged in a July 25 strike on the Olenya airfield in Russia’s Murmansk Oblast, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrii Yusov told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The airfield is about 1,800 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border. The strikes also targeted airfields in Engels and Diagilevo on July 25 at around 4 p.m. local time. Yusov noted that repairing the damaged aircraft may take months and that the air raid alarm did not work during the attack. Despite satellite images showing no visible damage, Yusov insisted multiple sources confirm the strike. Ukraine’s military intelligence did not confirm or deny involvement in the attack. Ukraine frequently uses domestically-produced drones to target Russian oil refineries and airfields, aiming to disrupt Russia’s economy and military capabilities.
A Russian court sentenced a Krasnodar Krai resident to 14 years for planning to sabotage railway relay cabinets and for ties to the anti-Kremlin Freedom of Russia Legion, the court announced. Artem Sanzharaev was accused of preparing Molotov cocktails but was detained by the FSB. The Russian judicial system is often criticized for unfair practices and forced confessions.
Russia passed a law allowing businesses to use cryptocurrencies for international trade, aiming to bypass Western sanctions. Sanctions have targeted Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. Trade with China has surged, but Chinese banks reject 80% of Russian yuan payments. The new law, effective in September, excludes domestic cryptocurrency transactions.
Between January and June 2023, nearly 150 data leaks in Russia compromised 140 million mobile numbers and 46 million email addresses, according to a report by Russia’s data leak intelligence and darknet monitoring service (DLBI). The annual rate of identity theft in Russia has grown by about 40 percent since 2019. Roskomnadzor reported 70 personal data leaks in 2024, down from 110 last year, but 600 million records were exposed compared to 200 million in the previous year. Most leaks came from e-commerce, retail, and online activities, with the financial sector being the most affected. The President of Russia’s Association of Internet Trading Companies (AKIT), Artem Sokolov, said that many online traders have invested in high-level security systems to protect personal data. Roskomnadzor is working on legislation to enforce mandatory data security standards, but Sokolov suggests it might be too late for Russia’s 258 million mobile phone users.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Authorities in St. Petersburg and other Russian regions are increasing financial incentives for military recruits. On July 29, St. Petersburg’s Krasnogvardeisky District announced that the one-time payment for signing a military contract has risen from 1.3 million rubles ($15,160) to 1.8 million rubles ($21,000), highlighting those recruits from St. Petersburg receive the highest first-year salaries in Russia. Similarly, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Head Vladislav Kuznetsov stated that their one-time payment for contract servicemembers increased from 400,000 rubles ($4,700) to 500,000 rubles ($5,830). Other regions, including Rostov, Voronezh, Yaroslavl, and several others, have also recently increased their one-time contract service payments.
Russian forces continue to struggle with integrating drones into ground assault operations despite prioritizing unmanned systems manufacturing. A Russian milblogger surveyed combat troops on July 25 about drone use in ground assaults and reported on July 29 that 52% of respondents had never used drones for reconnaissance during assaults. Another 34% reported occasional drone use, likely due to proactive field commanders. A former Storm-Z unit instructor highlighted challenges in systematizing drone use and noted shortages of reconnaissance drones. Despite Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s claim that Russia produces up to 4,000 drones daily, the integration of these technologies into operations remains problematic.
Sergey Chemezov, head of Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, announced that Russian forces are testing a wheeled robotic vehicle to deliver ammunition to frontline troops. He also stated that Russian forces are using a kamikaze version of SuperCam reconnaissance drones in Ukraine.
Russia’s Allies
North Korea may be increasing the types and amounts of weapons it provides to Russia. A Ukrainian battalion reported that Russian forces near Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, are using a North Korean Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile system on a North Korean-M2010 APC. While several Russian military bloggers shared the report, they questioned its accuracy. If confirmed, this would mark an escalation in North Korean arms support to Russia. Satellite imagery indicates North Korea is ramping up anti-tank missile production, likely due to Russian demand. This increase is probably part of the strategic partnership agreement signed by Putin and Kim Jong Un in June 2024.
Hungary’s decision to relax entry requirements for Russians and Belarusians raises espionage and national security concerns, according to a letter from Manfred Weber, chair of the European People’s Party, reported by the Financial Times. The European People’s Party is the largest in the European Parliament. Hungary recently eased its National Card program, allowing Russians and Belarusians to enter with fewer security checks. This change has alarmed neighboring countries, as there is no special vetting for National Card holders at the European level. Weber’s letter warns that the new policy could enable espionage and allow Russians to move freely within the Schengen area, posing a security risk. After holding the National Card for three years, individuals can gain permanent residency in Hungary, leading to citizenship after eight years, which grants EU-wide travel and work rights. Hungary, seen as Kremlin-friendly, has often obstructed EU sanctions against Russia.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian officials and the Russian Orthodox Church are pushing to codify a state ideology that denies Ukraine’s sovereignty into federal law. At the Second All-Russian Forum of the “Russian World” in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on July 29, participants discussed recognizing and solidifying the doctrine that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are a single, inseparable people. This ideology, endorsed by President Putin and others, claims that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state. The forum proposed laws to reinforce this belief, aiming to define Ukrainians in occupied regions as Russians who need reunification with Russia. Implementing such an ideology would require amending the Russian Constitution, which currently forbids proclaiming a state ideology and supports ideological diversity.
Russian military bloggers, typically vocal about Russian military actions, have been unusually quiet regarding recent mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast. This silence followed significant operations on July 24, 29, and 30. One blogger reported high losses near Donetsk City on July 29, hinting at possible self-censorship to prevent demoralizing public sentiment and attracting stricter oversight by the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin. This subdued commentary likely results from both enforced and voluntary censorship, intensified since a noted rebellion by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023. The Russian government is pushing milbloggers towards greater loyalty, affecting their willingness to discuss sensitive military outcomes openly. A prominent, Kremlin-recognized blogger breaking the silence today may signal to others that it is now acceptable to comment on these operations.
The Kremlin is tightening control over social media, prompting backlash from Russian ultranationalist bloggers and opposition journalists. The Russian State Duma passed bills requiring social media account administrators with over 10,000 followers to submit personal identification to Roskomnadzor, and platforms with over 500,000 users to provide personal data to Roskomnadzor or the FSB by November 1. This aims to create a register of approved channels, restrict unregistered ones from advertising, and limit funding for bloggers. Critics worry about personal data security and increased censorship. The Kremlin is also pushing Russians to switch from YouTube to state-controlled platforms by slowing YouTube’s streaming speeds.
The Russian government is supporting educational programs focused on “information and hybrid warfare” to train Russians in conducting and countering information operations. An ultranationalist Russian milblogger promoted a six-month training course at the Alter Academy of Political Science in Moscow. This course aims to teach professionals how to defend against and conduct information and hybrid operations and includes instruction from military-focused journalists and former state security employees. These programs align with a Russian Presidential Decree to enhance scientific and technological development. Despite past issues with similar programs at Moscow State University, the government is likely to continue expanding these initiatives to build a skilled cadre capable of conducting information and hybrid operations.
Western officials remain concerned about Russian efforts to influence the US presidential election. On July 29, the Associated Press reported that an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) warned that Russian actors are using unwitting US citizens and Russian PR firms to spread election-related propaganda and disinformation. The official advised Americans to be cautious of online content, especially on social media, as it could be foreign propaganda. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied these claims of Russian influence operations targeting the election.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com