Summary of the day:
Russian forces are continuing their slow and steady advancement towards Pokrovsk, benefitting from terrain advantages and Ukrainian manpower shortages. However, this progress is expected to slow as they approach more densely populated urban areas. In response to changing tactical situations, Russia’s Central Grouping of Forces has shown increased flexibility and speed in redeploying resources across its expanded operational zone in Donetsk Oblast. On the international stage, a significant prisoner exchange involved multiple countries including the US, Germany, and Russia. Meanwhile, despite new military assets like F-16 jets arriving in Ukraine, operational readiness will take months, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reaffirmed his stance against compromising on sovereignty for peace.
Picture of the day:
Former prisoner held by Russia US journalist Evan Gershkovich is welcomed by US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as he arrives at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
A significant international prisoner swap took place in Ankara, facilitated by Turkey, involving 26 individuals from multiple countries including Russia, Belarus, the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, and Turkey. The exchange resulted in high-profile releases such as U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, RFE/RL journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, and Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza, alongside seven Russian political prisoners and five Germans. Ten prisoners were transferred to Russia, 13 to Germany, and three to the U.S. Presidents of Russia and Belarus issued pardons for those released from their respective countries, and in return, the U.S., Germany, Poland, Norway, and Slovenia freed eight Russian prisoners, including notable figures like FSB operative Vadim Krasikov. The returned Russian prisoners were received by President Putin in Moscow, who proposed state awards for them. This event marks one of the most extensive prisoner exchanges in recent years, involving several of the released individuals who had been held on politically motivated charges, following extensive international negotiations. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan clarified that recent U.S.-Russia prisoner swap talks are separate from discussions about ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, condemned the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov had earlier accused Israel of carrying out the airstrike that resulted in Haniyeh’s death. While the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the assassination, they did not explicitly blame Israel.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a pause on a $95 million aid program to Georgia due to the country’s recent adoption of a “foreign agents” law, which has sparked widespread protests and criticism for stifling dissent. This law requires certain NGOs and media funded significantly from abroad to register as “organizations promoting foreign interests.” Despite ongoing support for the Georgian people, this suspension marks a significant shift in U.S.-Georgia relations, particularly affecting Georgia’s aspirations towards EU membership. The controversial law and its implications have also led to a halt in Georgia’s EU accession process.
Russian officials and milbloggers criticized Moldova for its “anti-Russian” stance, reacting strongly to Moldova’s expulsion of a Russian diplomat and threatening retaliation. This criticism followed Moldova’s recent arrest of Ion Creanga, head of the Moldovan Parliament’s Legal Department, on July 30 for allegedly passing information to a Russian embassy employee. Additionally, Russian milbloggers condemned Moldova’s military cooperation with NATO.
Russian troops withdrew from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport on July 31, ending a 32-year presence since Armenia’s independence. The decision, driven by Armenia’s changing security and diplomatic needs, marked a shift in relations with Russia, who criticized the move as potentially harmful. While Russian forces still guard Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran and maintain a base in Gyumri, Armenia is increasingly engaging with Western partners, evidenced by new EU dialogues and military aid agreements.
Georgia’s controversial foreign agents law took effect mandating organizations receiving foreign funds to register with the Justice Ministry by September 1 or face fines of approximately $9,200. Initially abandoned in March 2023 after protests, the law was revived and passed by the ruling Georgian Dream party in April 2024, sparking further protests and international criticism. This has led to strained relations with Western allies, resulting in the U.S. and EU imposing sanctions and halting military and financial assistance to Georgia.
The European Commission is investigating the impact on Hungary and Slovakia after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian Lukoil oil through its territory in June to cut off Kremlin funding. Although the ban has disrupted oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, the Commission has found no immediate risk to supply security and is awaiting further details from Hungary and Slovakia. The EU has not expressed urgency in addressing the complaints from the two countries, which have been criticized for not reducing their dependence on Russian oil. Ukraine denies violating its EU association agreement, with Prime Minister Shmyhal labeling the reaction from Hungary and Slovakia as politicized and stressing that Russia, not Ukraine, poses a threat to their energy security.
Romania’s Defense Ministry reported finding drone fragments near Ceatalchioi village, close to the Ukrainian border, following a Russian drone attack on Ukraine on July 25. The attack involved 38 drones targeting Odesa’s port facilities, with three crossing into Romanian territory. No damage to Romanian people or infrastructure was reported. The discovery marks another instance of drone debris landing in NATO-member Romania, amidst ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube port infrastructure. Romania continues to enhance border security, including building air raid shelters and deploying drone defense systems.
Social media reports and a video from Alertas Noticia on X suggest that soldiers wearing Wagner patches, a known Russian private military company, were seen among Venezuelan troops. This sighting aligns with the growing military ties between Venezuela and Russia, especially as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro continues to face political challenges and widespread protests following recent elections deemed fraudulent by many.
The Road To Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky affirmed that Ukraine will not trade its sovereignty or territory for a diplomatic end to Russia’s invasion. In an interview with French media, he stressed that any territorial decisions would require a referendum, reflecting the will of the Ukrainian people, despite no current plans for such a vote. Zelensky also highlighted ongoing preparations for a second Global Peace Summit by November 2024, which has broad international backing. Meanwhile, Kremlin officials demand Ukraine’s full surrender and an end to its NATO ambitions, framing Ukraine’s stance on sovereignty as unreasonable.
Russian officials are maintaining strict conditions for any diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, with Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko affirming that Russia will not relinquish control over the annexed regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, claiming them as permanent parts of Russia. This stance echoes President Vladimir Putin’s previous demands for peace negotiations, which include international recognition of these annexations and Ukrainian withdrawal from contested areas within these regions.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
After a failed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, Russia has shifted its focus to the Pokrovsk direction in eastern Ukraine, deploying substantial forces and making some territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast, as reported by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Zelensky highlighted the challenges in halting these advances, stressing the need for quicker international aid and better-equipped Ukrainian brigades, while advocating for fewer restrictions on using Western-supplied arms for deeper strikes into Russia to counter Russian artillery and aerial bombardments effectively. Syrskyi noted that despite heavy losses, Russian forces have achieved minor gains, particularly in the Pokrovsk sector with experienced assault units aiming to break through defenses towards Zhelanne, Novohrodivka, and Pokrovsk. He also mentioned ongoing intense fighting in the Kupiansk sector and around Chasiv Yar, with advancements stalled near Hlyboke and Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. The Siversk sector remains difficult due to persistent Russian artillery and assaults, but no significant territorial changes have been reported. Additionally, Ukrainian National Police and SBU units are actively countering Russian sabotage in the Toretsk sector.
The Central Grouping of Forces in Ukraine has developed a potentially more adaptable command and control system, which enables quicker responses to Ukrainian tactical vulnerabilities. This flexibility facilitates faster redeployment of forces across different operational directions within their expanded area of responsibility. This strategy, not commonly seen in other Russian military groupings, aims to swiftly exploit emerging tactical opportunities along a broader front. Established following the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024, the grouping is designed to maximize tactical gains by rapidly adjusting to battlefield dynamics. Concurrently, the Russian military is conducting offensive operations across eastern and northeastern Ukraine to stretch and weaken Ukrainian defenses, yet these efforts have not achieved significant tactical or operational gains. The Central Grouping of Forces, with its flexible command and control structure, is better positioned to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities across a wider front in Donetsk Oblast, a capability less evident in other Russian force groupings.
Ukraine has begun receiving a limited number of F-16 fighter jets, confirmed by Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis on July 31, with the first six arriving from the Netherlands as part of a broader commitment of 79 jets from several European countries. Additional jets are anticipated soon, with Denmark scheduled to deliver next. Although footage of an F-16 in Ukrainian airspace has been circulated, Ukrainian officials have refrained from discussing the operational status of these jets. The jets are essential to enhancing Ukraine’s air defenses against Russian forces, yet they will not be deployed in routine defense or strike missions until a sufficient number are received. President Zelensky has stressed the importance of these jets for potential long-range strikes into Russia to ensure Ukraine’s survival, amid challenges in pilot training and jet operability.
The Kremlin warned that F-16 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine will be shot down and are unlikely to significantly affect the battlefield outcomes. Ukraine, having requested these US-made jets for over two years, aims to enhance its air defense against recent intense Russian air assaults. Despite Ukraine’s President Zelensky stating the need for about 130 jets for parity with Russian forces, less than 100 have been promised by Western allies, with delivery and operational capability expected to span several years due to extensive pilot training.
Russian forces are attempting to capture and repurpose Ukrainian drones along the Svatove-Kreminna line, with claims that up to 25% of their drone arsenal in this area consists of refurbished Ukrainian models. Additionally, tactics to attract and down these drones include creating false heat signatures using burning bread and trench candles to lure them into traps where they are targeted with small arms fire.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting persisted north and northeast of Kharkiv City, around Hlyboke and Vovchansk with no significant changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers reported minor territorial gains in central Vovchansk and claimed Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Hlyboke.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made tactical advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, particularly southwest of Svatove and near areas such as Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, and Novoserhiivka. Geolocated footage confirmed an advance east of Nadiya, while unverified claims suggest movements southeast of Synkivka. Additionally, Russian military actions included striking a Ukrainian river crossing near Osynove with a Kh-38 missile, as part of efforts to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and consolidate positions in the region.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russia’s Central Grouping of Forces is dynamically redeploying troops across its expanded operational zone in Donetsk Oblast, encompassing the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division initiated offensive operations in Toretsk in June 2024, while maintaining pressure in Pokrovsk. On July 24, the 41st Combined Arms Army’s 90th Tank Division executed a mechanized assault southwest of Donetsk City, with other elements active west of Avdiivka. This restructuring aligns three motorized rifle brigades with the Toretsk front and tasks the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division with operations in Pokrovsk, aiming to achieve tactical gains and encirclements in these regions.
A Ukrainian drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 military helicopter near Donetsk as it was taking off for a mission. This incident marks a significant milestone as it suggests the capability of Ukrainian drones to engage and destroy enemy aircraft even at considerable distances from the frontline. The downed helicopter, typically used for various military purposes including transport and medical evacuation, was destroyed while still close to the ground. The attack resulted in the deaths of the entire crew and potential passengers on board, highlighting the effectiveness and reach of Ukrainian drone operations.
Siversk
Russian forces encountered significant challenges in the Siversk direction due to effective Ukrainian drone operations, leading to high casualties and hampering their advance. Reports indicate unsuccessful Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske and southeast of Siversk, including Vyimka and Spirne.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made a marginal advance west of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, just north of Chasiv Yar, with geolocated footage confirming their movement across the canal. Heavy fighting in this area has been noted by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Despite claims by Russian milbloggers of consolidating positions on the outskirts of eastern Chasiv Yar, no visual proof has been verified. Reports also suggest that Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn from nearby Klishchiivka, with Russians fortifying positions there. Ongoing Russian attacks are reported near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Andriivka. Drone and special forces units from Russia continue to be active around Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces were reported to have advanced in the Toretsk direction, particularly near Zalizne and central Niu York south of Toretsk, capturing strategic positions including the Artema waste heap and several industrial sites. However, these claims remain unconfirmed as no visual evidence has been provided.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces are slowly advancing towards Pokrovsk, leveraging Ukrainian manpower shortages and favorable terrain, with these advances expected to slow as they encounter more urban areas. President Zelensky has indicated that delays in Western military support have exacerbated these vulnerabilities by hindering the equipping of Ukrainian forces, leaving units in the Pokrovsk area under-equipped and struggling to effectively counter the Russian advance. Simultaneously, Russian forces are making tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces near the T0511 highway by exploiting vulnerabilities along the Vovcha River. Geolocated footage recently revealed Russian forces have moved within 3.5 kilometers of Hrodivka, and further southward attacks near Vesele could intensify their encirclement efforts. Additionally, control of Timofiivka and significant advances across the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers have been reported, potentially setting the stage for a major breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction by the end of the month.
Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk but may slow as they approach larger, more urban towns like Novohrodivka and Hrodivka, which pose new tactical challenges compared to previous rural gains. These towns, previously home to about 16,000 residents combined, represent a shift from the open fields and small settlements Russian troops have recently traversed. Historically, Russian troops have faced difficulties in more urbanized areas, such as the five-month battle for Avdiivka. Despite current Ukrainian forces being more exhausted and attrited than before, the complexities of urban combat are likely to hinder the pace of Russian advances.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made slight advancements southwest and west of Donetsk City, capturing a house in northern Paraskoviivka and reportedly gaining control of northwestern Krasnohorivka. Continuous offensive operations by Russian forces were noted near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces escalated their offensive along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, engaging in ground attacks near Velyka Novosilka and its surrounding areas, including Neskuchne and Novodonetske. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking south of Velyka Novosilka. Increased Russian aviation activities have been observed over occupied Mariupol, particularly towards Volnovakha Raion. Russian opposition media highlight challenges faced by Russian soldiers in Staromayorske, including heavy losses and food shortages.
Russian milbloggers disputed reports that a Ukrainian drone downed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Donetsk City on July 31, with some suggesting that missiles or rockets were used instead.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued offensive operations east and northeast of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger reported that Russian troops advanced up to 800 meters deep in a four-kilometer-wide area northwest and west of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces carried out ground assaults in east Kherson Oblast and on islands in the Dnipro River delta, with no changes reported to the frontline.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast and occupied Crimea, along with seven Shahed-136/131 drones from Crimea and Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully downed all seven drones over various regions including Kyiv, Poltava, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk. Debris from the drones caused injuries in Kyiv City, and missile strikes affected Bashtanka Raion in Mykolaiv Oblast.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a pending reshuffle of Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers during his address, following months of speculation about potential changes, including the dismissal of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Discussions have suggested Yulia Svyridenko or Oleksiy Chernyshov as possible replacements for Shmyhal. This announcement follows previous government changes, including the dismissals of the Infrastructure Minister and Agriculture Minister earlier in the year.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 29
- In Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, a man was killed and four others injured in Russian attacks. The strikes hit the village of Novoosinove and the Velykyi Burluk community, affecting a railroad station and damaging railway equipment. Among the wounded were a 10-year-old boy and a railway conductor.
- In Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, Russian forces attacked 21 settlements, resulting in one death and 10 injuries.
- In Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, Russian forces killed a man in Marynivka and injured three others, including two children, in Hannivka. Additionally, injuries were reported in Lyman, Predtechyne, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk, totaling five more people hurt.
- In Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine, a man and a woman were hospitalized after being injured by drone debris. Additionally, former anti-Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev was injured in an attack on the outskirts of Kyiv.
- In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, Russian forces attacked four communities in the Nikopol district, including Nikopol city, using drones and artillery. A 69-year-old man was injured in the strikes.
- Later, In Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Russian artillery attack killed a 40-year-old woman and her 72-year-old mother on her birthday. A 46-year-old man was injured as shells damaged buildings, schools, and buses
- In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, Russian forces launched 408 attacks on 10 settlements, injuring one person.
- In Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, a man was injured in a drone attack on the Nova Sloboda community.
A residential building damaged in a Russian artillery strike. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency signed deals to buy ground-based kamikaze drones and ammunition from a domestic manufacturer, essential for targeting key Russian assets. These deals total over Hr 3.7 billion ($90 million). The drones have become crucial in Ukraine’s strategy against Russian forces, especially given Ukraine’s capacity to produce over 3 million drones yearly with adequate funding. In 2024, Ukrainian forces received six times more drones compared to last year.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Finance Minister and the World Bank’s Regional Director signed an agreement for a $3.9 billion tranche from the U.S., part of a total $7.8 billion aid for 2024 aimed at supporting salaries and social programs. This funding, channeled through the World Bank’s Peace in Ukraine project, will help mitigate economic strain from the ongoing Russian invasion. The project has amassed nearly $30 billion, largely from the U.S., to assist Ukraine amid increasing poverty due to the war.
Russia News
Ukraine’s intelligence reported that kamikaze drones targeted Russia’s Olenya airfield in the Arctic Circle, damaging a TU-22M3 strategic bomber. The attack occurred on July 25 but was reported on July 27 after verification. This airfield is strategically located near Murmansk and distances from Norway and Finland. Despite satellite images not showing explosion evidence, Ukrainian officials claim the drone carried a specialized warhead that caused fragment damage to the aircraft. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the operation, emphasizing its significance in enhancing Ukraine’s long-range capabilities and its impact on Russian military assets.
The Kremlin is escalating its anti-corruption efforts within the Russian Ministry of Defense. Recently, Vladimir Pavlov, the CEO of Voentorg, was detained on charges of embezzling approximately 400 million rubles ($4.7 million) through the sale of overpriced toiletries to the military. This case also involves the arrest of businessman Timur Isakov and is linked to the investigation of former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov, arrested on July 26 by the FSB for supplying low-quality food at inflated prices. Reports suggest Pavlov may have connections to an associate of former Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. This crackdown follows the dismissal of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov and has led to an increase in bribery-related criminal cases, particularly in the Southern Military District, with over 100 cases related to illegal service dismissals, affecting units in Ukraine and near the Sumy Oblast border.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may have exaggerated its recruitment figures, claiming to have enlisted about 640,000 contract soldiers between Fall 2022 and April 2024, while only issuing 426,000 one-time payments of 195,000 rubles ($2,300) each. This discrepancy could not be fully explained by the exclusion of volunteer units and private military companies, which do not receive these payments. Additionally, a source indicated that Russian recruitment centers only achieved 50-60% of their 2023 targets. There are also complaints from soldiers about not receiving their promised salaries and one-time payments, suggesting potential financial mismanagement within the MoD.
Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate a significant increase in bribery among Russian soldiers seeking to avoid military duty in Ukraine. In the first five months of 2024, criminal cases related to bribery in Russia’s Southern Military District tripled, involving illegal discharges and unauthorized leaves. The 8th and 58th Combined Arms Armies are notably implicated, with over a hundred cases recorded against military officials for bribery. This trend is seen as a sign of growing demoralization within Russian forces. Additionally, a high-ranking Russian defense official was recently detained on corruption charges related to defense contracting.
Russian forces are adapting anti-ship missile launchers for ground combat in Ukraine, mounting them on armored vehicle chassis like the MT-LB and T-72B tank due to a shortage of traditional MLRS systems. Recent Ukrainian drone footage captured a strike on one such modified “Smerch-2” launcher in the Kharkiv direction.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Users throughout Russia experienced difficulties accessing YouTube and viewing content, as reported by DownDetector and Downradar. This issue follows recent threats by a Russian lawmaker to slow down YouTube due to Google’s non-compliance with Russian demands. The outages, peaking with over 400 complaints after midnight and noted across various regions including Moscow, Leningrad, and Vladivostok, could stem from technical issues or deliberate interference. This incident aligns with Russia’s increased control over media and information, amidst indications of potential further restrictions on YouTube.
Russian state media highlighted criticism from a Ukrainian official directed at Ukrainian forces.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com