Summary of the day: The Kremlin launched a complex messaging campaign to justify prioritizing initiatives in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. This strategy appears to be Putin’s attempt to defeat Ukraine’s incursion without compromising regime stability or reshuffling his loyal but incompetent leadership. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations in the Kursk Oblast salient, making marginal advances. In a likely effort to divert attention from the Kursk situation, Putin visited Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. Recent US intelligence assessments highlighted Ukraine’s efforts to develop alternative capabilities while remaining dependent on Western aid. Russian forces made advances in several areas, including southeast of Pokrovsk, southwest of Donetsk City, and northeast of Robotyne. Additionally, Russian authorities reportedly attempted to block non-Russian internet communication services and are considering a bill to penalize Russian citizens who violate Russian law while abroad.
Picture of the day:
People displaced by war arrive with their belongings to board an evacuation train at an undisclosed location in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian civilians fled areas close to the front line as Russian troops steadily seized more territory across the eastern Donetsk region. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating Americans working with Russian state media to prevent election interference. FBI raids were conducted on the homes of Scott Ritter and Dimitri Simes, both linked to Russian media. The probe aims to counter potential Russian influence in the upcoming November presidential election. U.S. intelligence warned of Russian plans for information campaigns targeting voters. No charges have been filed yet, but more raids and possible criminal charges are expected.
Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party announced plans to declare its main opposition, the United National Movement (UNM), unconstitutional if it wins a majority in upcoming elections. The party also aims to pass anti-LGBTQ legislation and claims it will peacefully restore Georgia’s territorial integrity. This move has been criticized as authoritarian by opposition groups. The announcement comes amid deteriorating relations between Georgia and the West, partly due to the controversial foreign agents law. Parliamentary elections, seen as crucial for the country’s future, are scheduled for October.
The Path to Peace
Russian officials are using the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region to push their narrative that Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate peace. They claim this incident proves Russia should only negotiate after fully defeating Ukraine. This aligns with Russia’s longstanding position of seeking Ukraine’s complete surrender, despite claims of openness to legitimate peace talks.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Kremlin is attempting to repel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast without compromising regime stability, halting the eastern Ukraine offensive, or replacing key military leaders. Putin is reluctant to declare general mobilization due to labor shortages and regime stability concerns. Instead, the Kremlin may increase the use of conscripts in Kursk Oblast. Despite the ongoing crisis, there are no current plans to remove General Gerasimov from his position. This approach aligns with Putin’s tendency to avoid major changes during active crises and prioritize the offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Recent US intelligence assessments highlight Ukraine’s efforts to develop alternative capabilities to counter Russian advantages in manpower and equipment. The reports also emphasize Ukraine’s ongoing reliance on Western security assistance. While these assessments align with observable trends, they may not fully account for the dynamic nature of the battlefield situation.
Recent US intelligence reports suggest that current US military aid to Ukraine is insufficient to match Russia’s artillery advantage, estimated at 10,000 rounds fired daily. Ukrainian forces have expressed concerns about artillery shortages, which affect their defensive and offensive capabilities. However, Ukraine has been developing alternative strategies, such as using drones and long-range strikes, to partially counter Russia’s artillery advantage and defend against attacks. While these asymmetric methods have shown some success, they cannot fully replace conventional artillery. The US and its Western allies still have the capability to address Ukraine’s constraints caused by delays in security assistance.
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports that Ukraine can maintain defensive operations but likely cannot conduct large-scale counteroffensives for at least six months. However, Ukraine has shown capability in smaller-scale counterattacks and localized operations, such as in northern Kharkiv Oblast and Kursk Oblast. These efforts aim to contest tactical initiative and draw Russian forces from other areas. With timely Western aid, Ukraine could potentially set conditions for both limited and large-scale counteroffensives. The US and its allies’ decisions on Ukraine’s resources and engagement rules significantly influence the war’s trajectory.
Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Kursk Oblast salient making marginal advances. They struck Russian pontoon bridges and staging areas along the Seim River. Ukrainian troops have likely advanced into Vishnevka and hold positions east of Aleksandrovka. Russian forces are reportedly holding positions along the 38H-564 road east of Zhuravli. Ukrainian forces are reportedly advancing north of Sudzha and potentially encircling Russian forces in Martynovka. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces have advanced into southern Russkaya Konopelka.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continues in northern Kharkiv Oblast with no major frontline changes. Russian forces have reduced airstrikes in the area. Some Russian troops remain trapped in a plant in Vovchansk, unable to break out due to Ukrainian control of supply routes. Clashes persist north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and Hlyboke, and around Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Limited fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but there were no major changes to the frontline.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted limited attacks southeast of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka, as well as south of Siversk near Pereizne but there were no major changes to the frontline.
Chasiv Yar
In the Chasiv Yar area, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Predtechyne, but did not achieve any confirmed advances. The frontline around Chasiv Yar remained unchanged.
Toretsk
According to Russian Defense Minister Belousov, Russian forces seized the town of Niu York south of Toretsk, but Ukrainian sources say Ukrainian forces still control around 20% of the settlement. Russian forces also reportedly advanced near Druzhba, Pivnichne, and Toretsk itself, but the frontline around Toretsk remained largely unchanged. Fighting continued in several areas around Toretsk, including southeast near Zalizne, south near Nelipivka and Niu York, and southwest near Panteleymonivka.
Pokrovsk
According to reports, Russian forces have advanced southeast of Pokrovsk, taking control of the northwestern part of Zhuravka. They have also claimed advances near Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Mykolaivka, Ptyche and Komyshivka, southeast of Pokrovsk, although these claims have not been confirmed. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces seized Zhelanne around August 18. Fighting continued in several areas east and southeast of Pokrovsk.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area.
According to reports, Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City, making gains north of Kostyantynivka and southeast of Vodyane, northeast of Vuhledar. Russian forces also continued offensive operations near Pobieda. While Russian forces have reached the O-0532 highway, cutting the Ukrainian ground line of communication between Vuhledar and Kostyantynivka, these advances have not significantly impacted operations in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
No ground attacks reported along Donetsk-Zaporizhia border by either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Zaporizhia Line
Recent footage shows Russian forces advancing to the southern outskirts of Luhivske, northeast of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked near Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka. Russian sources deny claims of major Ukrainian operations in the area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked east bank Kherson Oblast without success. They also struck civilian targets on the west bank with drones, artillery, and air strikes.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine overnight. They fired missiles and 69 Shahed drones from various locations. Ukrainian forces intercepted 50 drones and one missile across multiple regions, including Kyiv. Air defenses were active in 14 oblasts, with some drones falling due to electronic warfare. One drone reportedly entered Russian airspace via Belarus. Ukrainian officials claim to have destroyed about 12 drones near Kyiv.
UNHCR to provide $30 million for Ukraine’s front-line areas this winter. The aid will support residents in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv regions. Eligible households within 10 km of the contact line or Russian border will receive one-time payments of 21,000 hryvnias ($508) for solid fuel. This comes as Ukraine faces potential energy challenges due to Russian attacks on infrastructure.
Ukraine blocked Russian Lukoil oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline as part of sanctions against Russia. Hungary, affected by this move, is finalizing talks for alternative oil supplies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto called the situation challenging but assured that Hungary’s energy supply remains secure. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal defended the ban, denying it violates the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Hungary and Slovakia have complained to the EU about the ban, but EU ambassadors have shown little sympathy for their position.
Ukraine’s parliament ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) with 281 votes in favor. The ratification will take effect in 60 days, with a seven-year exception for Ukrainian citizens in war crimes cases. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called it a commitment to international justice and a step toward EU membership. The ICC has already issued arrest warrants for Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 31
- Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast killed one resident in Kostiantynivka and wounded four others across the region.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian drone attack on a car in Kozacha Lopan killed a 65-year-old driver and injured a 61-year-old man. Russian shelling in Kupiansk wounded a 59-year-old woman. Multiple other locations in the oblast suffered damage to civilian infrastructure from Russian attacks.
- In Sumy Oblast, Russian guided bomb strikes killed one resident and wounded another in the Yunakivska community. Numerous other Russian attacks across the oblast caused damage but no additional casualties.
- The casualty count was increased on a Russian strike on a children’s café yesterday in Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, killed a 14-year-old boy and injured nine people, including six children. Russian attacks damaged 12 other settlements today in the oblast, but no casualties occurred.
- Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast killed one person and injured 15, including four children. The strikes damaged various civilian structures, including schools, hospitals, homes, and energy facilities.
The aftermath of a Russian strike on a children’s cafe in the village of Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on Aug. 20, 2024. The number of casualties from the attack rose to one killed and nine injured. (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration / Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with 51 mobile radars to detect drones, expected to be delivered in 2024. These systems, purchased from Robin Radar Systems, can differentiate between small drones and birds. The mobile nature of the radars makes them harder for enemies to locate and neutralize. This support comes as Ukraine faces frequent Russian drone attacks, with nearly 14,000 launched since the full-scale invasion began. The Netherlands has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, also pledging funds for FPV drones.
Canada pledges $7.3 million to help return and reintegrate Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. At least 19,500 children have been confirmed as abducted since the invasion began. The funds will go to UNICEF in Ukraine. Canada is also providing additional aid for children’s welfare, including support for the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, which was struck by a Russian missile on July 8. Canada co-chairs the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children, which now includes 40 countries. Ukraine has already brought back around 800 abducted children.
NATO countries are falling short on air defense pledges to Ukraine. At least five systems promised at the recent NATO Summit haven’t been delivered. President Zelensky urged the U.S., U.K., and France to speed up weapon deliveries. Germany recently provided an IRIS-T system and plans to send four more by year-end. Spain will deliver a Hawk battery in September. Ukraine seeks more air defense as Russian strikes continue and winter approaches.
The Nord Stream pipelines were damaged in 2022 explosions. Czech President Petr Pavel said they were a legitimate target during the war, even if Ukraine was involved, which Kyiv denies. German media reported an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor in connection with the blasts. Two other Ukrainian suspects were mentioned, but no evidence of Ukrainian government involvement was found.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian S-300 air defense system near Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast. The strike’s accuracy is being assessed. Russian officials claim they shot down a missile, with debris causing a fire at a local oil refinery. A pro-Kremlin blogger alleged it was Ukraine’s first ATACMS strike on Russian territory, but this remains unconfirmed. No casualties were reported. Ukraine’s military noted that Russia uses S-300 systems to attack Ukrainian cities. The attack appears to be part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to weaken Russian air defenses. The same night, Moscow reportedly faced a large-scale drone attack, with 10 drones allegedly shot down.
Ukraine reportedly conducted a long-range drone strike in Murmansk Oblast, Russia, nearly 2,000 km from Ukraine. Russian sources claim this is the fourth consecutive day of drone activity in the area. A drone was shot down over Vysokiy, near Olenya airfield, a base for Russian strategic bombers. Local airports temporarily restricted airspace. No impacts on the airfield have been confirmed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Chechnya on August 20, his first trip there in 13 years. He met with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, praising socio-economic developments and visiting Spetsnaz University. Kadyrov claimed Chechnya has sent 47,000 personnel to Ukraine and has thousands more in reserve. Putin emphasized Russian unity across ethnicities and religions, and commended soldiers fighting in Ukraine. This visit likely aimed to shift focus from the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and project stability, while also addressing concerns about Chechen forces in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast.
Russia’s Prosecutor’s Office seeks 16-24 years imprisonment for 23 Ukrainian Azov Brigade members. Charges include conspiracy and attempted assassination of public figures. The harshest sentence, 24 years, is sought for Oleh Tyshkul, a former Azov instructor. Some defendants were involved in Mariupol’s defense, including at Azovstal. Russia has opened criminal cases against 620 Ukrainian POWs. The Azov Brigade, known for defending Mariupol, has been controversial due to alleged far-right connections. (Russian War Crimes)
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian occupation authorities are establishing Cossack organizations in occupied Ukraine, particularly in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. This effort aims to bolster Russia’s military reserves and law enforcement in these areas. Registration of Cossack societies is planned to begin by late 2024. Officials claim thousands of Cossacks are already fighting in Ukraine, including in occupied Kherson and on the Kinburn Spit. Recent Russian laws have integrated Cossacks further into military structures.
Moscow is promoting its Military Service Consulting Center, which aids contract soldiers with various services. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin claims 43,000 Muscovites are fighting in Ukraine, with 23,000 more expected by year-end. However, a source suggests many recruits listed as Moscow residents actually come from other regions. This effort comes amid reports of recruitment challenges in the city.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, 48 high-ranking Russian military officials have reportedly left their positions. This includes 21 from the Defense Ministry, 13 from leadership roles in Ukraine, 8 military district commanders, and 5 from main commands. At least seven face criminal charges.
Russia continues to acquire US-made electronic components for its weapons and surveillance systems, despite international sanctions. These include programmable logic devices used in missile navigation, internet filtering, and facial recognition. Russian investigators report that export companies are often bypassing embargoes, allowing Russia to obtain crucial components for Iskander and Kalibr missiles.
Russia’s Allies
Russian President Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang met in Moscow to discuss strengthening economic ties. They agreed to expand cooperation, particularly in energy. Li also met with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, signing agreements on investment and other areas of collaboration between the two countries.
Controlling The Narrative and Russian Propaganda
The Kremlin has launched a messaging campaign to justify prioritizing eastern Ukraine over expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast, aiming to normalize the Ukrainian presence and manage public perception. Russian propaganda redirects attention to humanitarian efforts and maintains local elections, while state media downplays the incursion and emphasizes advances in the Pokrovsk direction. This strategy allows Russia to focus on its offensive in eastern Ukraine before addressing Kursk. Despite initial alarm, Russian officials now expect the Kursk battles to continue for months, with Putin reportedly setting an October 1 deadline to repel Ukrainian forces without redeploying troops from key frontlines. This approach contradicts Russia’s previous defensive war narrative, prioritizing tactical gains in Ukraine over quickly restoring territorial integrity in Kursk, and seeks to maintain domestic support despite the ongoing situation.
Russian and pro-Russian actors are running an information campaign to discourage Ukrainian refugees in the EU from returning home and to weaken their national identity. Ukraine’s military intelligence reports that pro-Russian journalists in Italy are spreading stories about alleged Ukrainian crimes against civilians in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russian internet users reported widespread outages of communication and streaming services. While state media claimed this was due to a repelled DDOS attack, experts suggest it may have been an attempt by authorities to block Telegram. Similar outages occurred during past protests and when Russia tested its “sovereign internet” system. This incident may be part of ongoing efforts to censor and control Russia’s internet access.
A proposed Russian bill would allow authorities to charge Russian citizens living abroad for violating Russian laws, including vague offenses like extremism and discrediting the military. This could expand the government’s ability to prosecute Russians for actions taken outside the country, particularly for social media posts.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
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