Summary of the day: Ukraine continued its offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, though no significant advances were reported by either side. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the objectives of this operation. The incursion has not halted prisoner of war exchanges, as Ukraine and Russia conducted their first such exchange since the operation began. Meanwhile, Russian forces made advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian military targets within Russia remains a topic of debate. While some US officials argue that such strikes would be ineffective due to the redeployment of Russian air assets, others contend that these strikes are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities across the theater. The lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons, such as ATACMS, could allow Ukrainian forces to target a wide range of significant Russian military infrastructure beyond just airfields.
In response to the Ukrainian incursion, Kursk Oblast officials announced the creation of the BARS-Kursk volunteer detachment, which will focus on defending the region. Some US officials assess that Russia may need to redeploy significant forces from Ukraine or operational reserves to counter Ukrainian forces in Russian territory.
Picture of the day:
Aftermath of Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Internal Affairs Ministry/Facebook)
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Path To Peace
Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko denied reports of indirect negotiations with Russia to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. This contradicts a Washington Post report suggesting Qatar-facilitated talks were planned but disrupted by Ukraine’s incursion into Russia. Russia’s Foreign Ministry also denied these reports. An online summit on energy security was held with 40 countries, resulting in a communiqué condemning attacks on civilian power grids. Russia has been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, while Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil facilities. The situation remains tense, with no confirmed diplomatic progress on halting energy-related attacks.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian targets in Russia are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities. While a senior Biden administration official claims such strikes would be ineffective due to Russia relocating military aircraft, this overlooks other valuable infrastructure supporting operations. Politico reports 90% of aircraft conducting glide bomb strikes have been moved out of range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles. However, of the 250 military and paramilitary objects within ATACMS range, only 17 are airfields, indicating numerous other potential targets. The remaining 233 include bases, communications stations, logistics centers, and headquarters that are difficult to relocate or fortify quickly. Currently, the US restricts Ukraine to using HIMARS with GMLRS, limiting strikes to just 20 of these 250 objects.
Lifting Western restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range weapons could force Russia to make difficult decisions and reconfigure assets in its rear areas. This could disrupt Russian operations, similar to how HIMARS strikes in 2022 forced Russia to disperse assets in occupied Ukraine, slowing their advance. Russia has adapted by moving some logistics to facilities in Russia, out of HIMARS range. Allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia could compel further disruptions and force difficult decisions about allocating limited air defense and electronic warfare assets over a larger area.
Ukraine’s drone strikes have exposed poor air defense coverage in many Russian rear areas. To protect these areas, Russia might have to redeploy assets from the frontline, potentially allowing Ukraine to increase its aviation operations there. This situation would compel Putin and Russian military command to reconsider their allocation of limited resources and logistics systems across the entire theater of operations.
Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to strike Russian targets within ATACMS range using domestically produced weapons. Recent successful strikes include a drone attack on a Russian ammunition depot near Ostrogozhsk, Voronezh Oblast, on August 24, and the debut of the “Palyanytsia missile-drone” against an unspecified Russian military facility in occupied Ukraine. These strikes show Ukraine’s evolving deep-strike capabilities, which have previously pushed the Black Sea Fleet out of the western Black Sea and prompted negotiations over energy infrastructure attacks.
US officials assess that Russia may need to redeploy significant forces to counter Ukrainian incursions in Kursk Oblast. The New York Times reports that US officials estimate Russia needs 15-20 brigades (at least 50,000 troops) to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. This could require redeploying troops from Ukraine or using reserves planned for a 2024 offensive. The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia had already moved about 5,000 personnel to Kursk Oblast by August 14, with estimates suggesting over 20,000 trained troops may be needed to retake the area.
Ukraine and Russia conducted their 55th prisoner of war (POW) exchange, the first since Ukraine’s recent operation in Kursk Oblast. Each side returned 115 POWs in a UAE-mediated swap at a Belarus border checkpoint. The Ukrainian group included Azovstal defenders, soldiers from various military branches, and those captured during Mariupol battles. Russian POWs were reportedly conscripts captured during the recent Kursk incursion. President Zelensky announced the return, noting that this exchange brings the total number of returned Ukrainian POWs to 3,520. Many of the returned prisoners reportedly have serious health issues.
Kursk Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, Russia, with no significant advances reported by either side. Fighting was reported near several settlements including Borki, Spalnoye, Krupets, Kamyshnoye, Olgovka, Komarovka, Snagost, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Russkaya Konopelka. Russian forces are reportedly defending Martynovka from Ukrainian attacks. A Russian source claimed repelling a Ukrainian reconnaissance group near Kamyshevka.
Russian forces are quickly building defensive trenches near Kurchatov, west of Kursk City. Satellite images from August 14-18 show rapid development of these fortifications near Dolgiy. The defenses may be extended into windbreaks to hide them from satellite view.
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that a recent Ukrainian operation into Russia’s Kursk Oblast was a preventive strike. It reportedly stopped Russian forces from attempting to encircle part of Sumy Oblast and capture Sumy City. This move disrupted potential Russian plans to stretch Ukrainian defenses across multiple fronts.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative None
Fighting continues north and northeast of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk, with no significant changes to the frontline. Russian sources claim to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Hatyshche and Ohirtseve. Russian forces near Hlyboke have increased drone reconnaissance and reinforced positions.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked multiple locations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. Key areas of conflict include Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kurylivka, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Terny, and Torske. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Novovodyane and claiming a 2-kilometer advance.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk focusing on Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Spirne. No confirmed frontline changes were reported.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar. They claimed advances near Kalynivka and in Zhovtnevyi Microraion, but these are unconfirmed. Fighting also occurred near Ivanivske and Stupochky.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Toretsk. They also attacked near Dyliivka, Nelipivka, and Niu York.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, gaining ground in eastern Karlivka, northeast of Mykolaivka, and southeastern Novohrodivka. They claim to have seized Novohrodivka’s city center and Krasnyi Yar, but this is unconfirmed. Attacks continue in several nearby settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, and Ptyche.
West of Donetsk City
Fighting continued near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, west of Donetsk City. No changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Katerynivka, and Vuhledar, southwest of Donetsk City. A claimed advance in Kostyantynivka is unconfirmed. No changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly paused ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region. However, elements of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense Army continue to operate near Razliv, north of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly near Novoandriivka and Shcherbaky, northwest of Robotyne. No significant changes to the frontline were reported.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
No fighting was reported in the Kherson direction by either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched limited missile strikes on southern Ukraine overnight. Four Kh-22 cruise missiles targeted Snake Island in the Black Sea. An unconfirmed report suggests Onyx missiles may have struck Odesa Oblast.
Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a speech on Ukraine’s 33rd Independence Day, 913 days into the war with Russia. He emphasized Ukraine’s resilience and determination to defend its independence. Zelensky mentioned ongoing battles in various regions, including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. He warned Russia that Ukraine would retaliate for attacks on its territory, hinting at potential long-range strikes within Russia. The president also highlighted Ukraine’s growing international support and its commitment to regaining control over all its territories, including those currently occupied by Russian forces.
President Zelensky signed a bill banning religious organizations connected to Russia. This could prohibit activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), which is legally under the Russian Orthodox Church. The law comes after investigations revealed pro-Kremlin propaganda and Russian passports at UOC-MP premises. Over 100 UOC-MP clergy are under criminal investigation for alleged collaboration with Russia. The law gives UOC-MP communities nine months to break ties with the Russian church. Despite UOC-MP claims of severing ties with Moscow, many in Ukraine dispute this. The move is not a general persecution of Orthodox Christianity, which remains widely practiced in Ukraine.
A Russian strike on Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, destroyed the historic house and museum of Ukrainian anarchist Nestor Makhno. This occurred during overnight attacks on nine front-line settlements, involving 306 strikes using various weapons. The attack also damaged local infrastructure, but no civilians were harmed. Makhno, a revolutionary leader from 1918-1921, fought against multiple factions during Ukraine’s War of Independence. This destruction adds to the approximately 1,000 Ukrainian cultural heritage sites damaged by Russia since the full-scale invasion began. (Russian Cultural Genocide)
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 12
- Russian forces attacked Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing five civilians (three men and two women) and injuring five others (one man and four women). The attack, likely carried out with artillery, is under investigation by local authorities.
- Russian forces launched two missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Sumy, the regional center of Sumy Oblast. The attacks injured seven people, with two in serious condition. Local authorities are still assessing the damage and providing medical assistance to the victims.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky announced the successful first combat use of Ukraine’s new “Palianytsia” missile-drone. He emphasized the importance of developing new weapons amid delays in international support. Zelensky urged allies to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russian military targets inside Russia. Currently, the U.S. and U.K. allow Ukraine to use certain weapons near the border but prohibit the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles for strikes deeper into Russia.
Ukraine’s Allies
On Ukraine’s Independence Day, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte joined President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Both leaders expressed strong support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Simonyte announced Lithuania’s commitment to surpass 0.25% of GDP in aid to Ukraine. Poland, a key ally, has allocated 4.3 billion euros in support. Both leaders emphasized Ukraine’s resilience and their belief in its eventual victory over Russia.
Latvia has pledged €112 million ($126 million) in military support to Ukraine for 2024. Defense Ministers Rustem Umerov and Andris Spruds discussed expanding the Drone Coalition, which now includes nearly 20 countries. Latvia will provide thousands of drones, with the latest shipment consisting of 1,400 units. The country is investing about €20 million ($22 million) in the coalition this year. Latvia and the UK lead this initiative, which aims to supply Ukraine with crucial UAV capabilities.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte announced a new aid package for Ukraine, including air defense missiles, anti-drone systems, and 5,000 drones. Lithuania will also allocate €35 million ($39.2 million) for radars and demining equipment. The country aims to spend 0.25% of its GDP on assistance to Ukraine by the end of 2024. To date, Lithuania has provided €501 million ($560 million) in support to Ukraine.
U.S. maintains restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons against Russian territory, citing potential future relations with Moscow. Some officials hint at possible changes before the election. Ukraine argues these restrictions hinder its war efforts, especially after the recent Kursk incursion. The U.S. allows strikes on Russian military targets near the border but bans attacks deep inside Russia with weapons like ATACMS.
Russia News
Ukrainian military intelligence hackers launched a major cyberattack on Russian internet providers and industrial facilities. The attack affected 33 servers, 283 computers, and 21 websites across various Russian companies, including Rostelecom, MTC, Beeline, and Yandex. Targeted facilities included those supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex. The hackers also left pro-Ukrainian messages on affected platforms. This follows previous cyberattacks by Ukraine, including one in June that disrupted communications in occupied Crimea and another in July that targeted Russian banks.
Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested at Le Bourget airport near Paris. French authorities reportedly detained him due to concerns about Telegram’s lack of moderation, which they believe enables criminal activities. Durov, worth an estimated $15.5 billion, left Russia in 2014 after refusing to shut down opposition groups on his previous platform, VK. He maintains that Telegram should remain neutral, despite government pressures. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov noted both risks and benefits of Telegram’s open platform.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials in Kursk Oblast announced the formation of BARS-Kursk, a new volunteer unit. The unit will operate only within Kursk Oblast. Recruits are offered six-month contracts with salaries comparable to those serving in Ukraine. This move likely aims to boost local recruitment and reduce the need to redeploy forces from other areas to defend Kursk Oblast following a recent Ukrainian incursion.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com