Summary of the day: Russian forces launched a series of strikes, including two Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting civilian infrastructure and a military educational facility in Poltava City, resulting in significant casualties. Russian troops made advances near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City. Meanwhile, the full impact of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast remains uncertain, with experts cautioning against premature assessments of its effects on the conflict’s trajectory or potential peace negotiations.
Picture of the day:
Medical workers and psychologists help and support local residents and victims in the neighborhood where a military educational facility was hit by Russian missiles in Poltava. At least 51 people were killed and hundreds wounded in one of the single deadliest strikes of the two-and-a-half-year war. (Patryk Jaraccz / AFP via Getty Images)
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia, an International Criminal Court (ICC) member, despite an existing ICC arrest warrant against him for forcibly transferring Ukrainian children. Russian officials attempted to divert attention from this warrant, with Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson making baseless claims about Ukraine seeking exemption from ICC jurisdiction. Mongolia, an ICC signatory, did not arrest Putin as required, citing its critical energy dependence on Russia and emphasizing its policy of neutrality. Ukraine warned of “consequences” for Mongolia’s inaction. Russia continues to reject the ICC’s authority, while Mongolia highlighted its reliance on Russian energy imports for its people’s survival.
Russia is expanding its media influence by opening a TASS news agency office in Myanmar. A Burmese political leader announced this, claiming it will provide “accurate” international coverage. The leader also mentioned potential Russian assistance with Myanmar’s 2025 elections and collaboration on legislation. This move is part of Russia’s efforts to increase its global media presence, with TASS reportedly operating in 57 countries.
Path Towards Peace
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, part of Ukraine’s “victory plan” to bring Russia to negotiations, has caused operational impacts on the Russian military. President Zelensky claims Russia has diverted about 60,000 troops in response, with Ukraine reportedly controlling over 1,290 square kilometers and 100 settlements. This action demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to conduct significant operations, reminiscent of its successful counteroffensives in Fall 2022, and challenges the notion of a stalemate. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine doesn’t intend to keep the land permanently and plans to present this strategy to the U.S. in September. Meanwhile, Russia has redeployed about 30,000 troops to Kursk while intensifying its push towards Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine claims to have taken 600 Russian captives, though this information couldn’t be independently verified. However, analysts caution against premature assessments of its full impact on the war’s trajectory or Russia’s willingness to negotiate, believing that Russian President Putin likely still thinks Russia can achieve its goals through a prolonged war of attrition and by outlasting Western support.
Delays in Western aid have hindered Ukraine’s military efforts, allowing Russian advances in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Analysts emphasize that consistent Western support remains crucial for Ukraine’s future counteroffensive capabilities. Russia is likely to continue its aggressive stance unless it faces significant military defeats and strong Western opposition. Current Russian leadership, and likely any successors, remain resistant to fair peace negotiations. Analysts warn that a ceasefire under present conditions would primarily benefit Russia, allowing it to regroup for potential future attacks.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Chinese President Xi Jinping released a joint statement supporting China and Brazil’s proposal for resolving the Ukraine conflict, as well as the African Union’s peace efforts. They called for dialogue and negotiations, emphasizing three principles that appear to favor Russia: avoiding battlefield expansion, preventing escalation, and refraining from provocations. Analysts note that China’s peace plan is seen as favorable to Russia, while some African states are trying to maintain relationships with both Russia and Ukraine without explicitly supporting Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Ukraine
Russian sources report ongoing Ukrainian ground attacks in Kursk Oblast targeting areas near Komarovka, Korenevo, Olgovka, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Borki. While no Ukrainian advances were claimed, Russian milbloggers suggest that Ukrainian forces are consolidating positions in the region. Olgovka is reportedly contested. Russian forces are said to be counterattacking near Aleksandrovka.
A drone attack reportedly targeted Migalovo military Air Base near Tver City, Russia. Russian sources shared footage claiming to show air defenses intercepting Ukrainian drones and smoke over Kalininskyi Raion. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials have confirmed the incident.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, with no confirmed frontline changes. Ukrainian reports indicate Russian engineering units arrived near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv, while other Russian forces rotated positions near Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. They attacked multiple settlements including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Nevske, and areas near Kreminna. A Russian expert claimed recent advances in Nevske and Hrekivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk targeting Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Spirne, and Ivano-Darivka. A Russian blogger claimed advances near Pereizne, but this is unconfirmed. Russian airborne drone operators are reportedly active in the area. No confirmed frontline changes were reported.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar targeting Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. No confirmed frontline changes were reported. A Ukrainian spokesperson noted Russian infantry attacks in small groups and reduced use of glide bombs. Russian forces reportedly have a 2:1 artillery advantage in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces made a small advance in northwestern Druzhba, northeast of Toretsk. A Russian blogger claimed they fully captured Druzhba, but this is unconfirmed. Russian attacks continued near Toretsk and Nelipivka. No other significant changes to the frontline were reported in this area.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk likely capturing Halytsynivka and Novohrodivka. They are reportedly about 8 kilometers from Pokrovsk. Russian attacks continued east and southeast of Pokrovsk, targeting multiple settlements including Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, and Selydove. A Ukrainian observer noted Russian forces are using small groups with drone support for reconnaissance, avoiding armored assaults, but suffering significant losses.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Donetsk City. A Russian source claimed they seized a windbreak in western Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian forces reported repelling a Russian mechanized assault near Kurakhove. Fighting continued near Heorhiivka and Maksymilyanivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly made small advances near Vuhledar, southwest of Donetsk City. Claims suggest they advanced towards and into Prechystivka from Pavlivka, and east of Vodyane. Russian sources say these moves aim to encircle Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar. Attacks continued near Kostyantynivka, Vuhledar, and Vodyane. Russian artillery units are reportedly active in the area. However, visual confirmation of these advances is lacking.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
No fighting was reported in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting continued near Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed advances north of Robotyne, but this is unverified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Limited fighting continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of strikes across Ukraine, including two Iskander-M ballistic missiles that hit Poltava City. The attack targeted civilian infrastructure and a military educational facility, resulting in at least 51 deaths and 271 injuries. Ukrainian forces intercepted 27 Shahed drones over various oblasts. President Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s need for advanced air defense systems, particularly Patriot and SAMP/T, to counter such attacks.
The head of Ukraine’s state energy grid operator Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, was dismissed on Sept. 2, prompting resignations from two independent board members who called the decision politically motivated. The dismissal, allegedly due to failure to protect energy infrastructure from Russian attacks, has raised concerns among international partners. Energy experts worry this could jeopardize foreign investment crucial for repairing Ukraine’s power grid, especially as winter approaches. The decision comes amid ongoing Russian missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing regular power outages. Oleksiy Brekht has been appointed as interim head of Ukrenergo while the company faces challenges in maintaining the country’s power supply during wartime.
Five Ukrainian ministers and the head of the State Property Fund submitted their resignations to parliament. These include Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska, Ecology Minister Ruslan Strilets, and two deputy prime ministers. Parliament Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk said the resignations will be considered at an upcoming session. The head of the Servant of the People’s party, David Arakhamia, indicated that over half of the government’s staff would be affected by this reshuffle. This follows months of speculation about potential ministerial changes and comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky’s previous government shake-ups earlier this year.
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Rostyslav Shurma, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. Zelensky mentioned the need to strengthen government sectors but didn’t specify reasons for Shurma’s dismissal. Shurma, who was in charge of the economic sector since 2021, had recently been implicated in a controversy involving renewable energy subsidies to his brother’s company operating in Russian-occupied territories.
Gizo Uglava, the first deputy chief of Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), was fired by NABU head Semen Kryvonos. The dismissal followed a probe into Uglava’s alleged pressure on a whistleblower who had revealed potential information leaks to corruption suspects. A disciplinary commission had recommended Uglava’s firing on Aug. 28. Uglava, who had served as NABU’s second-in-command for nine years, denied wrongdoing and accused Kryvonos of having a conflict of interest in the decision. The case has raised concerns about NABU’s integrity and independence, crucial elements of Ukraine’s anti-corruption efforts established after the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution.
On August 30, Russia launched an attack on Kharkiv, killing at least seven people and injuring over 90. Among the victims was 18-year-old artist Veronika Kozhushko, known as Nika, who had just opened an exhibition the day before. Kozhushko was part of a generation of young Ukrainian artists who grew up during times of conflict with Russia. Her art often focused on themes related to Ukraine’s struggle for independence and the impact of war. Friends described her as a talented, passionate artist who was deeply involved in Kharkiv’s cultural scene. Kozhushko’s death highlights the ongoing threat to civilians and artists in Ukraine, with over 100 Ukrainian artists killed since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 58+ INJURIES: 319+
- Russian forces launched a missile attack on Poltava, Ukraine, killing at least 51 and injuring over 271 people. The strike hit a Military Institute of Communications and a nearby medical facility. The short time between the air raid alert and missile impact caught many people during evacuation. Rescue efforts are ongoing, with 25 people saved so far. President Zelensky has ordered an investigation into the attack, while the Defense Ministry urged calm and reliance on official information sources.
- A Russian airstrike hit a university building in Sumy injuring at least one person. A KAB guided bomb was used in the attack. Emergency services are working at the scene. Ukrainian media has reported additional explosions in the city following the initial strike.
- In Lviv, at least seven civilians were killed and 47 wounded, with children among the casualties. The attack damaged about 50 buildings, including schools and historic sites near the central railway station. Almost an entire family was killed, leaving only the father alive. Seven of the hospitalized victims are in critical condition.
The aftermath of the Russian missile strike on Poltava, Ukraine. (Red Cross Ukraine)
Air strike on Sumy University. (Suspilne Sumy)
The aftermath of a Russian attack on Lviv (President Volodymyr Zelensky/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A video emerged on Sept. 2 showing a drone dropping what appears to be molten thermite on soldiers in a tree line near Ukrainske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukraine’s 108th Territorial Defense Brigade reportedly deployed the drone, though this is unverified. Thermite weapons disperse molten metal at extremely high temperatures, capable of melting armored vehicles and causing severe injuries. This new drone innovation, if confirmed, represents another advancement in the ongoing drone warfare between Ukraine and Russia. Both sides have increasingly relied on various drone types throughout the conflict, including FPV drones, naval drones, and kamikaze drones like the Russian Lancet.
Ukraine’s Allies
Reuters reports that the US is considering providing Ukraine with long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), potentially to be announced in Fall 2024. These missiles, with ranges of 370-1,000 kilometers depending on the variant, could significantly expand Ukraine’s strike capabilities. However, their delivery is months away, and it’s unclear if Ukraine can fully utilize their range due to current US restrictions on striking targets within Russia. Analysts note that these limitations and slow weapon provision are hindering Ukraine’s offensive capabilities.
Norway has donated $53.3 million to the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) for purchasing drones and air defense systems for Ukraine.
Romania’s lower house of parliament approved a bill to transfer a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. The bill awaits President Klaus Iohannis’s signature before delivery can proceed. This follows Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s recent appeal for promised Patriots.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian attacks have damaged one of two power lines at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, raising concerns about potential emergencies if the second line is compromised. Energoatom warns that damage to the second line could lead to a loss of cooling for reactor cores and fuel pools. The International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Rafael Grossi, is visiting the plant to help prevent a nuclear accident. Meanwhile, recent reports of a drone strike near the facility and ongoing military activity have heightened tensions. Russia continues to spread claims about potential Ukrainian attacks on nuclear plants, while Ukraine has accused Russian forces of creating panic by setting fires at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Russia News
A Russian court in Rostov-on-Don has sentenced Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr Lyubas to 20 years in prison. Lyubas was reportedly captured during an attempted amphibious operation in occupied Crimea in late 2023. He was charged with illegal border crossing, arms smuggling, and preparing a terrorist act. Lyubas denied being a criminal or terrorist, stating he was following military orders and should be considered a prisoner of war under international law. This case is part of a broader trend of Ukrainian soldiers facing trial in Russia, where concerns about legal transparency and prisoner treatment persist. (Russian War Crime)
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian occupiers in Ukraine are trying to recruit civilians in occupied areas to join their military. The Kherson Oblast administration is offering significant financial incentives, including a large sign-on bonus and high monthly salary, to those who enlist. They’re also promising combat veteran status and associated benefits. This effort aims to bolster Russian forces using local recruits from occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russia’s Allies
Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his visit to Mongolia by signing agreements to strengthen economic ties with Mongolia and China. The deals focus on the Mongolia-Russia-China Economic Corridor, which aligns with each country’s development initiatives. Key points include the completion of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline, an invitation for Mongolia to join the BRICS Plus format, and agreements on Russian oil exports to Mongolia. Putin also announced Russian assistance in restoring a thermal power plant in Ulaanbaatar.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com