Summary of the Day:
Russia launched a significant missile strike against Ukraine using its new Oreshnik ballistic missile system, targeting Dnipro City’s industrial facilities, medical centers, and residential areas. The attack included multiple types of missiles fired from Tambov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan Oblasts. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted six cruise missiles, limiting the overall damage.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced north of Vuhledar, while Russian forces gained ground in several locations, including northwest of Kreminna, southeast of Chasiv Yar, in Toretsk, southeast of Kurakhove, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, Russian forces made marginal advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Sudzha.
In a concerning development, South Korean intelligence confirmed North Korean troops are training with Russian naval infantry and airborne units, with some already engaged in combat in Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, the Russian State Duma approved a record defense budget for 2025-2027, signaling continued long-term military commitment.
Following the missile strikes, Putin threatened Western nations supporting Ukraine with retaliation, particularly those enabling long-range strikes into Russia. However, Western intelligence officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, maintain these threats are primarily rhetorical and shouldn’t deter continued support for Ukraine. Leaked Russian documents suggest Moscow’s ultimate goal remains the complete dismantling of Ukrainian sovereignty, despite public posturing about peace negotiations.
Picture of the Day:
A view of the interior of a heavily damaged apartment in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, with debris from a shattered window and broken furniture strewn across the room, as the destruction of a nearby building is seen through the open window frame on. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Putin’s recent threats to Western nations supporting Ukraine, particularly regarding potential attacks on military facilities of countries assisting with deep strikes into Russia, represent his continued pattern of nuclear-related deterrence threats, though CIA Director Bill Burns advises Western leaders not to be intimidated by what he characterizes as typical bullying behavior. Following a missile strike on Dnipro City that injured two people and damaged buildings, Putin announced Russia’s use of a new ballistic missile system (Oreshnik) and framed the attack as retaliation against Ukrainian strikes and NATO actions, though experts note that while the missile’s visible reentry vehicles appeared designed to create spectacle and imply nuclear threats, Russia regularly uses various nuclear-capable missiles against Ukraine, and previous strikes on Dnipro have caused more damage.
While EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano views the potential use of an ICBM against Dnipro as a serious escalation and “nuclear gamble” with worldwide implications, particularly following the U.S. allowing Ukraine to conduct strikes in Russia and Russia’s updated nuclear deterrence policy, Western officials dispute Ukraine’s “95%” certainty about ICBM use, and Putin’s pattern suggests these may be empty threats – he has repeatedly threatened severe consequences over Western military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, aircraft, and artillery, but has consistently failed to follow through when these “red lines” were crossed, even as Ukraine has been conducting strikes into claimed Russian territory like Crimea using Western-provided missiles since April 2023.
Hungary is deploying air defense systems near its Ukrainian border following increased military tensions. This move comes after Ukraine was permitted to use Western-supplied long-range weapons, including ATACMS missiles, within Russian territory. The situation escalated after two Russian missiles were intercepted over Zakarpattia Oblast, which borders Hungary and hosts 75,000 ethnic Hungarians. Recent strikes include attacks on a Russian military arsenal in Bryansk Oblast. While the U.S. has explicitly allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles inside Russia, and France is considering similar permissions for their weapons, other nations like Italy are taking a more cautious approach, focusing instead on defensive support. Hungarian Defense Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky warns that the war has entered “its most dangerous phase,” highlighting growing concerns about potential escalation and broader implications for regional stability and world peace.
The integration of North Korean troops into Russian military operations may have unexpected consequences for both nations and global stability. While North Korea likely aims to gain combat experience from this partnership, Russia’s current military approach of using all troops – regardless of specialization – in high-casualty frontal assaults could significantly undermine these goals. Russian forces, including elite units, are now primarily functioning as basic infantry due to heavy losses, with minimal specialized training. If North Korean troops face similar high casualty rates, this could not only diminish North Korea’s ability to learn from the conflict but also potentially escalate tensions between these nuclear-armed nations and their adversaries, further destabilizing international peace.
Russia is strengthening its military ties with Belarus, transferring air defense systems near Minsk and emphasizing its commitment to defend Belarus under their Union State Treaty. A Russian defense official noted that Russia’s nuclear doctrine specifically includes defending Belarus against Western threats. The deepening military integration between Russia and Belarus, including joint industrial projects, signals an expanding military alliance that could increase tensions with neighboring NATO countries and potentially destabilize regional security in Eastern Europe.
A former Belarusian soldier, Vasil Verameichyk, who fought for Ukraine against Russia, was extradited from Vietnam to Belarus last week, facing likely imprisonment. Verameichyk served in the Kalinouski Regiment, a Ukrainian military unit of Belarusian volunteers, which Belarus recently labeled as a terrorist organization. This development highlights the growing tensions as Belarus, under dictator Alexander Lukashenko, continues to support Russia’s war in Ukraine while cracking down on its own citizens who back Kyiv. The incident raises concerns about international peace and cooperation, particularly as Belarus intensifies its suppression of dissent and further aligns with Russia’s military actions. The case also demonstrates how the conflict’s impact extends beyond Ukraine’s borders, affecting regional stability and individual freedoms in neighboring countries.
British military leadership has declared readiness to defend NATO’s eastern flank against potential Russian aggression, with Deputy Defense Chief Rob Magowan confirming the UK would immediately engage if Russia invaded Eastern Europe. This stance comes amid growing concerns about European security, particularly following Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and uncertainty about future U.S. support for NATO under a potential Trump presidency. While the UK recently tested its Archer mobile howitzer system during NATO exercises in Finland, there are concerns about British military readiness, as the army is at its smallest size since the 1700s. This situation highlights increasing tensions between NATO and Russia, raising significant concerns about maintaining peace in Europe and the potential for broader military conflict.
Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has criticized Donald Trump’s nomination of Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, citing concerns over Gabbard’s pro-Russian stance and skepticism toward Ukraine. Of particular concern are Gabbard’s claims that NATO expansion provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, her suggestion that pressuring Putin could trigger nuclear war, and her characterization of the conflict as a potential “forever war.” Haley highlighted Gabbard’s appearances on Russian and Chinese media and her past meeting with Syria’s Assad as evidence of sympathies toward authoritarian regimes. The nomination has raised alarms in Kyiv and among U.S. allies, as the position would give Gabbard significant influence over U.S. intelligence and foreign policy decisions, potentially affecting global stability and peace efforts in Ukraine.
The Path to Peace
According to Ukrainian intelligence sources reported by Interfax Ukraine on November 20, Russia’s Defense Ministry has drafted a document outlining plans through 2045 that would effectively destroy Ukraine’s independence by dividing it into three parts: annexed territories under direct Russian control (including Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson oblasts, and Crimea), a Russian-controlled puppet state or “pro-Russian state entity” centered in Kyiv, and western “disputed territories” to be divided among neighboring countries through negotiations. While the document’s existence cannot be independently verified, it aligns with assessments that Russia’s goal remains the complete dismantling of Ukrainian sovereignty despite Putin’s public posturing about peace negotiations, and the Kremlin’s document also outlines four global scenarios, with Russia favoring either a multipolar world with divided spheres of influence or a weakened global order, with the plan reportedly intended to be shared with the new US administration.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian state media reported that their forces intercepted a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile near Sevastopol, Crimea.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces made a small advance near Sudzha in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. They moved forward west of Spalnoye, as confirmed by video evidence. Russian forces are reportedly engaging Ukrainian positions around several settlements including Olgovka, Darino, and Martynovka.
Russian forces are suspected of executing Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets on November 20. Drone footage reportedly shows armed men shooting 10 unarmed people lying on the ground. A separate shooting of Ukrainian POWs was also reported in the Pokrovsk area. Ukrainian authorities say Russia has executed at least 124 POWs since 2022, with 177 additional prisoners dying in Russian captivity. These actions violate the Geneva Convention on treatment of prisoners of war.
Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russia’s Rostov and Voronezh regions with one drone hitting an industrial facility in Rostov’s Konstantinovsky district, causing a fire. Another drone was reportedly downed in Rostov’s Myasnikovsky district. The attacks prompted Volgograd airport to temporarily suspend operations.
Russian officials report they stopped Ukrainian drone attacks near Akhtubinsk in Russia’s Astrakhan region. A Russian source suggests the drones may have been targeting the Kasputin Yar missile facility.
According to Western officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post near the Baryatinsky estate in Mar’ino, Kursk Oblast reportedly wounded a senior North Korean general and while Russian President Putin acknowledged the attack and admitted to Russian casualties, he denied any commanders were hurt, though a Russian source claims the strike killed 18 Russian soldiers and wounded 33 others, including three North Koreans, with the status of Russian Lieutenant General Valery Solodchuk, who was reportedly present, remaining unknown. North Korea has sent 10,000 troops to Russia, mostly deployed in western Kursk Oblast, as part of a 50,000-soldier Russian counter-offensive force being assembled in the region, potentially to replace Russian casualties.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk and Starytsya northeast of Kharkiv City with no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed progress near Vovchansk and repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Hlyboke, these claims remain unverified. A Ukrainian military spokesperson noted that weather conditions are hampering Russian operations, as fallen leaves and expected snow make it harder for their forces to move undetected.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced in Terny, northwest of Kreminna, as confirmed by video evidence. Russian sources claim advances near Kupyansk and Svatove, including areas near Hlushkivka and Stelmakhivka. Ukrainian officials report Russian attacks across multiple settlements including Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, and areas near the Serebryanske forest. Russian forces reportedly struck a Ukrainian pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River near Lyman and conducted airstrikes around Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces near Siversk face challenges due to weather conditions. Muddy terrain is making it difficult for Russian infantry to move effectively, leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks. Recent footage shows Russian forces, with drone support, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions near Pereizne, south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have advanced near Chasiv Yar, with troops crossing the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal west of Klishchiivka. Fighting continues around Chasiv Yar and Stupochky, with Russian forces reportedly making tactical advances toward Slovyansk.
Toretsk
Russian forces have advanced in central Toretsk, with footage confirming their progress. They are attacking Toretsk and nearby Shcherbynivka with air support. Russian sources claim they now control over half of Toretsk, including areas near Hrushevskoho Street and Avanhard Stadium, with intense fighting continuing near Nelipivka and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces conducted multiple assaults in the Pokrovsk area but made no advances. They attempted to push along the railway near Petrivka, Pustynka, and Novooleksiivka. Russian forces also attacked numerous settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Dachenske, Yurivka, Hryhorivka, Pushkine, Zhovte, Chumatske, and Ukrainka.
Kurakhove
Russian forces have advanced near Kurakhove, capturing Dalne and making progress in Sontsivka. They’ve cleared the northern shore of Kurakhivske Reservoir and advanced near central Kurakhove’s grain elevator and south of Maksymilyanivka. Multiple Russian units are involved. Attacks continue in several areas including Zorya, Berestky, and Maksymilyanivka, though weather conditions are reportedly slowing their advance.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Recent fighting near Vuhledar shows mixed results, with Ukrainian forces advancing north of Bohoyavlenka while Russian forces gained ground near Antonivka. Russian forces attempted a mechanized assault east of Bohoyavlenka without success. Fighting continues around multiple settlements including Trudove, Kostiantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Katerynivka, and Yelyzavetivka, with Russia focusing on advancing along the C051104 highway.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces made advances near Velyka Novosilka with military units reaching the outskirts of Rozdolne. Russian forces also progressed along the Kurakhove-Velyka Novosilka highway and near Blahodatne. Additional advances were reported near Novodonetske and Rivnopil. The Russians are conducting mechanized assaults from Shakhtarske toward Rozdolne and Velyka Novosilka, possibly attempting to flank Ukrainian positions from the east. Their apparent goal is to pressure Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Velyka Novosilka, which would allow Russia to advance toward the Donetsk Oblast border.
Zaporizhia Line
A Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces have cleared Ukrainian positions near Dorozhnyanka, south of Hulyaipole, though this claim remains unconfirmed.
Russian forces attacked several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast, including Orikhiv, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, and Pyatykhaty near Robotyne, but failed to make any advances.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but the frontline remained unchanged.
Ukraine News
Russia launched multiple missiles against Ukraine primarily targeting Dnipro City and Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in what appears to be the first use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the conflict, launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region. The complex attack involved various missile types, including a Kinzhal ballistic missile from Tambov Oblast and cruise missiles from Volgograd Oblast, with Russia notifying the U.S. 30 minutes before testing its new intermediate-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik,” which Putin confirmed was launched in retaliation for alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk regions using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles.
The strikes hit multiple targets, including an industrial facility (likely the Pivdenmash rocket factory), a medical facility, residential areas, and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities, injuring two people, though Ukrainian forces managed to intercept six cruise missiles. While Russia likely has few of these experimental missiles, which are possibly modified versions of the Rubezh missile system capable of carrying multiple warheads, experts suggest that Ukraine’s current air defense systems may need upgrading to effectively counter such weapons, and President Zelensky warned that Russia continues to seek new missiles from North Korea and Iran.
During a press briefing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova received a live phone call instructing her not to comment on Russia’s ballistic missile strikes against Dnipro, after Russia allegedly used a Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile in the attack. While Ukrainian President Zelensky noted that the missile’s characteristics suggested intercontinental ballistic capabilities and accused Putin of using Ukraine as a “testing ground,” and Ukrainian media cited law enforcement sources confirming it was a Rubezh missile, these claims remain under investigation, with the EU and France calling this a serious escalation.
The U.S. had previously warned Kyiv about possible Russian experimental missile tests, and Putin warned that Russia would respond to any country whose weapons are used against Russian targets. The attack came after the U.S. permitted Ukraine to conduct strikes within Russia using Western long-range missiles, and while Russia commonly uses shorter-range missiles against Ukraine, this intermediate-range ballistic missile represents a significant escalation as such weapons are typically designed for nuclear payloads and longer distances.
Ukraine marks the 11th anniversary of the Revolution of Dignity, which began in 2013 as peaceful protests on Kyiv’s Maidan Square and grew into a nationwide movement that overthrew a pro-Russian government. The revolution, which claimed the lives of over 100 people known as the ‘Heavenly Hundred,’ represented Ukraine’s push for democracy and European integration. These values continue to drive Ukraine’s current resistance against Russian aggression.
Ukraine is nearly ready to resume commercial flights by early 2025, with Lviv or Boryspil airports potential candidates for reopening, according to Communities Minister Oleksii Kuleba. The main hurdle remains passenger safety, particularly adequate air defense systems. While insurance companies are prepared to support the initiative, and several international airlines have shown interest, the decision depends heavily on the war situation. Lviv, which has experienced fewer attacks than cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odesa, could be the first to reopen. Ukraine has already presented a roadmap for partially reopening its airspace under martial law, marking a potential step toward normalizing international travel despite ongoing security challenges.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 28
Russian forces attacked Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injuring 26 people, with 10 requiring hospitalization. Two women were seriously wounded. The attack damaged several buildings, including residential structures, and vehicles. Some victims, including teenagers, needed hospital care, others received treatment at the scene.
Two people were injured in the ICBM missile attack on Dnipro.
A residential building damaged in a Russian attack against Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s parliament passed a law allowing soldiers who deserted or went AWOL for the first time to return to military service with their benefits and contracts intact. The move follows an August decision that decriminalized first-time desertion if soldiers returned to their units. Two military units, the 53rd and 57th mechanized brigades, have openly invited their absent soldiers to return. The legislation aims to address under manning in front-line units, with plans to draft 160,000 additional people to reach 85% of desired troop levels.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Biden has approved sending anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine, though experts caution the impact may be limited due to potential delays and technical challenges with aging ammunition. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin explained the decision was prompted by changes in Russian tactics, where infantry now leads attacks instead of mechanized forces. The mines will be “nonpersistent,” meaning they self-deactivate after a certain time to minimize civilian risks. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has noted that his country has become the “largest minefield in the world,” with 250,000 square kilometers contaminated by landmines and explosive remnants since Russia’s invasion.
The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed new sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, targeting Gazprombank and over 50 other Russian banks, along with 40 securities registrars and 15 financial officials. This marks a significant shift as Gazprombank, Russia’s largest previously unsanctioned bank, had been spared earlier to allow European countries to pay for Russian gas. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated these actions will weaken Russia’s ability to fund its military operations in Ukraine. The sanctions will prevent Gazprombank from conducting dollar transactions, closing one of Russia’s few remaining channels for international banking. The bank had reportedly been used to purchase military equipment, pay soldiers, and compensate families of those killed in the war.
The U.K. government has frozen the assets of Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash, his wife Lada, and two other prominent international figures as part of a global anti-corruption effort. Firtash, a former associate of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, allegedly diverted millions from Ukraine into U.K. properties. Currently living in Austria while fighting U.S. extradition on racketeering and bribery charges, Firtash built his fortune through Russian gas trading. This action by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy represents a significant step in combating international financial corruption and its destabilizing effects on global security.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
According to Ukraine’s Energy Ministry, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is at risk of a blackout after Russian forces damaged one of two power lines connecting it to Ukraine’s power grid (while Ukraine reports this was due to Russian artillery fire, Russian media claims it was caused by an automatic control issue), leaving it connected by only one transmission line, which appears to be part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to disrupt Ukraine’s power infrastructure and follows a recent Russian aerial attack that forced three other nuclear plants – Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Southern Ukrainian – to reduce output on November 17, with the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming these attacks have increased nuclear safety risks and Greenpeace warning of potential catastrophic power grid failure.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1050 728300 |
Tanks +1 9399 |
Artillery +5 20736 |
Arm. VEH +13 19156 |
Aircraft  369 |
Heli 329 |
Ships 28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are pressuring people in Russia and occupied Ukraine to sign military service contracts to avoid another forced mobilization. In occupied Mariupol, recruiters are reportedly forcing young men to military enrollment offices to sign contracts. In Russia’s Bashkortostan region, officials are paying bounties of 50,000 rubles ($494) to those who bring in new recruits, with 2,300 applicants waiting for contracts. Ukrainian forces captured Russian prisoners who claimed they were coerced into signing contracts while in prison and sent to fight without weapons.
Russia’s parliament approved a three-year federal budget with significant military spending from 2025-2027. The budget allocates 13.5 trillion rubles ($133 billion) for defense in 2025, which combined with national security spending will comprise 41% of Russia’s total federal budget. The funding continues at similar levels through 2027, though experts note that increased defense spending may not directly translate to improved military capabilities, as much of it goes toward benefits for soldiers, veterans, and their families.
Russia has accumulated over 1,500 missiles, including 350 Iskander-M, 210 Iskander cruise missiles, 390 Kalibr, and 220 Kh-101 missiles, according to RBC-Ukraine. Monthly missile production has increased from 115-130 to approximately 170 units. Russia reportedly plans to use these stockpiles for renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Russia’s Allies
According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service on November 20, North Korean troops are actively training with Russian naval infantry and airborne units within Russia’s Eastern Military District (which includes the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades and the 11th and 83rd Airborne Brigades – units geographically close to North Korea), with some already engaged in combat and forming a “Special Buryat Battalion” within Russia’s 11th Airborne Brigade for operations in Kursk Oblast, where approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been deployed as of late October. Additionally, North Korea has sent artillery systems to Russia, including 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers, with the Financial Times noting that 50 howitzers and 20 rocket systems were delivered recently – this military support, which began with weapon supplies in 2023, has prompted the US to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons against Russia.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com