As Ukraine regains footing in Kursk, Russia leverages claims of encirclement while talks with Washington hang in precarious balance
Summary of the Day – March 15, 2025
The diplomatic chess match intensified on March 14 as a high-stakes American peace initiative teetered between tentative progress and potential collapse. President Volodymyr Zelensky declared the Kursk operation had “completed its task” while Ukrainian forces regroup, even as Putin and Trump traded dramatic claims about encircled troops that Kyiv flatly denied. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones struck deep into Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure as European allies rallied with fresh military support amid fears that Putin remains fixated on his ultimate goal: control over Ukraine.
Disputed Narratives: The Phantom Encirclement of Kursk
The Ukrainian General Staff issued a pointed denial on March 14 of Russian claims that its forces were surrounded in Kursk Oblast, dismissing the assertions as politically motivated pressure tactics. “The units have regrouped, moved to more favorable defense lines and are completing their assigned tasks in Kursk Oblast,” the statement read, directly contradicting both Trump and Putin’s dramatic declarations.
The presidential war of words began when Trump claimed his administration held “productive discussions” with Putin, during which he urged the Russian leader to “spare” Ukrainian troops. “At this very moment, thousands of Ukrainian troops are completely surrounded by the Russian military, and in a very bad and vulnerable position,” Trump wrote without providing evidence.
Putin seized the narrative during a Security Council meeting, claiming some Ukrainian troops “are blocked” in the embattled Russian region and demanding their surrender. “In order to effectively implement the U.S. president’s call, an appropriate order from Ukraine’s military and political leadership to its military units is necessary,” Putin declared, promising “life and decent treatment” to captured soldiers—a claim contradicted by documented Russian war crimes against prisoners.
Independent analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported “no geolocated evidence” supporting the encirclement claims, noting that Russian military bloggers themselves published maps acknowledging Ukrainian forces still have viable escape routes to Sumy Oblast. The ISW assessment suggests Putin may be attempting to distract from his rejection of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal and generate a new narrative portraying himself as reasonable and merciful.
President Zelensky later told journalists that the Kursk operation “has completed its task” and had successfully stabilized the situation near Pokrovsk as well—suggesting a strategic withdrawal rather than an encirclement.
Diplomatic Tightrope: Putin’s Conditional Ceasefire
The day’s tense exchanges followed Putin’s dramatic response to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal. While claiming to accept the truce “in principle,” the Russian leader attached demands that Ukraine halt mobilization, military training, and cease receiving Western military aid during the ceasefire—conditions that would essentially freeze Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a joint press conference at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Russia (Contributor/Getty Images)
“Is the ceasefire going to be used to continue forced mobilization, to continue rearming, to continue supplies of weaponry, to allow military units to regroup?” Putin asked rhetorically, recasting his rejection as reasoned caution.
Zelensky’s skepticism extended beyond his public remarks on the situation in Kursk Oblast. In his evening address on March 13, he had already dismissed Putin’s initial response to the ceasefire proposal as “manipulative,” warning that Russia was preparing to reject the deal.
“Now we have all heard very predictable, very manipulative words from Putin in response to the idea of silence at the front — he is, in fact, preparing to reject it as of now,” Zelensky said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a carefully calibrated response following the Moscow meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, confirming that Putin had sent “additional signals” to Trump. “When Mr. Witkoff brings all the information to President Trump, we will determine the timing of a conversation,” Peskov said, adding there are “reasons to be cautiously optimistic.”
The diplomatic dance continued as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a measured tone: “There is reason to be cautiously optimistic, but by the same token, we continue to recognize this is a difficult and complex situation. It will not be easy. It will not be simple. But we certainly feel like we’re at least some steps closer to ending this war and bringing peace.”
Trump’s statement came as U.S. diplomatic efforts intensified through other channels.
The Shadow Game: Intelligence Assessments of Putin’s Intentions
Despite diplomatic overtures, classified US intelligence assessments paint a darker picture of Putin’s ultimate goals. According to Washington Post reporting on March 13, intelligence sources believe Putin has not abandoned his maximalist objective of controlling Ukraine, despite US peace efforts.
The assessment, circulated among Trump’s administration on March 6, suggests Putin maintains a “long-standing desire to restore ‘Mother Russia'” and remains determined to assert power over Kyiv. Some officials believe that even if Russia agrees to a temporary truce, Moscow will use the pause to rearm, violate the agreement, and fabricate provocations to blame on Ukraine.
European intelligence officials further warned that Moscow views Trump as weak, lacking principles, and potentially open to manipulation. If a permanent ceasefire is reached, Russia would likely revert to the “hybrid” or non-military tactics it used to undermine Ukraine before its 2022 full-scale invasion.
These assessments align with ISW’s long-term analysis that Putin remains committed to his goals in Ukraine and unwilling to negotiate in good faith. Leaked documents from a think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service reportedly state the Kremlin is unwilling to accept a ceasefire before 2026, suggesting current Russian diplomatic maneuvers may be stalling tactics.
In response, Trump had described Putin’s statements as “very promising” but “wasn’t complete”—despite previously warning of “devastating” financial consequences for Russia if the war continues.
These assessments cast a shadow over the tentative diplomatic progress initiated by Ukraine’s acceptance of the proposed truce during Jeddah talks on March 11, which had led Washington to resume military and intelligence support for Kyiv.
Ukraine’s Pragmatic Diplomacy: Preparing While Remaining Vigilant
Even as Kyiv openly questions Putin’s sincerity, Ukraine has begun assembling a team to develop monitoring mechanisms for the proposed ceasefire. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced the initiative on March 14, citing the challenge of enforcing a truce along the 1,300-kilometer front line.
“We have already started forming a national team to develop appropriate processes to properly control a possible ceasefire. This is an extremely complex process,” Sybiha explained during a press conference with Austrian Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Justice Department in Washington, DC. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Trump appeared to support this development, telling a Justice Department audience that he’d received “some pretty good news” regarding ceasefire negotiations. “We’ve had some very good calls today with Russia and with Ukraine,” Trump said. “They’ve agreed for a ceasefire if we can get it with Russia, and it’s not easy. It’s a tough one. But I think we’re doing it… I think we’ve had some very good results.” Despite his optimism, he acknowledged “a long way to go” before a deal could be finalized.
Ukraine remains wary of Russian violations, citing its experience with the Minsk agreements, which Russia breached 25 times. “So now everything will be aimed at ensuring that the Ukrainian side is ready with the appropriate teams, developments, and modalities,” Sybiha said.
During US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, the sensitive topic of Enerhodar and control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant emerged as a particularly complex issue.
“The American side goes into details. For example, the city of Enerhodar… You can’t just say: here’s the Plant, and the city is separate. I believe that the issue of territories is the most difficult one after the issue of establishing a ceasefire,” Zelensky explained.
Fiery Dawn: Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Energy Infrastructure
As diplomatic wrangling continued, Ukrainian forces demonstrated their long-range strike capabilities, hitting critical Russian infrastructure overnight. Ukrainian drones struck the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, setting fire to a gasoline storage tank in an area exceeding 1,000 square meters, according to regional Governor Veniamin Kondratiev.
The Tuapse facility, with an annual processing capacity of 12 million tons, plays a key role in supplying fuel to the Russian military. The strike forced an emergency shutdown, following a previous attack in May 2024.
A Ukrainian intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent that Security Service (SBU) drones had executed a broader operation, targeting two gas compressor stations in Russia’s Tambov and Saratov oblasts, along with a warehouse storing missiles for Russia’s S-300/S-400 air defense systems near Radkovka in Belgorod Oblast. The missile depot strike reportedly triggered detonations of stored ammunition.
“The SBU conducted another successful special operation on enemy territory, causing significant damage to Russia’s budget and reducing its ability to finance and sustain the war,” the source claimed.
Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko suggested these strikes revealed vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defenses, noting that Moscow had concentrated protection around the capital at the expense of other regions. Ukrainian drone strikes have reportedly destroyed significant numbers of air defense systems and radars along the front line and in occupied territories, degrading Russia’s ability to defend strategic assets in its rear areas.
European Solidarity: G7 and European Nations Rally Support
While American diplomacy dominated headlines, European allies continued strengthening their support for Ukraine. G7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty despite tensions with the Trump administration over trade policies. The group’s communiqué, released on March 14, affirmed Ukraine’s “territorial integrity and right to exist,” while condemning Russian “acts of aggression”—though in notably softer language than previous statements.
During the meeting in La Malbaie, Quebec, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio faced pressure from allies to clarify Washington’s position on Ukraine. While avoiding direct confrontation, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. and its partners would “not let things that we don’t agree on stop us from agreeing on other things.”
In another significant European development, EU member states agreed on March 14 to prolong sanctions on more than 2,400 individuals and entities over Russia’s war on Ukraine after a delay from Hungary—the EU’s most Russia-friendly member. Budapest finally agreed to renew the sanctions for a further six months after four people were removed from the list. “Our determination to support Ukraine is decisive,” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen posted after the extension was agreed.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced plans to host French President Emmanuel Macron next week for talks on Ukraine ahead of a crucial EU summit. “European political topics will naturally form the focus of the discussion… but certainly the distressing international issues affecting us all will also play a role, particularly the developments in Ukraine,” government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told a press conference in Berlin. The meeting will serve as preparation for the European Union summit in Brussels as European leaders scramble to present a united position in response to Trump’s policy shifts.
On the military aid front, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson announced on March 13 an artillery package worth approximately $300 million, including 18 additional Archer artillery systems, five ARTHUR counter-battery radar systems, and financial support for Ukrainian shell production initiatives.
In a potentially game-changing development, Germany’s conservative Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached a breakthrough with the Greens on a sweeping spending plan that could unleash hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure. The agreement paves the way for up to €1 trillion ($1.088 trillion) in new spending, including €3 billion ($3.2 billion) in immediate military aid to Ukraine.
“Germany is back,” Merz declared on March 14. “Germany is making its large contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe.”
The package is expected to include three IRIS-T air defense systems, three Skyranger air defense systems, 10 howitzers, surface-to-air missiles, 20 protective vehicles, artillery shells, and drones—a substantial boost to Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov expanded the web of European support by signing a bilateral agreement with Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles to strengthen defense cooperation and support Ukrainian military training.
French President Emmanuel Macron added his voice to the chorus, calling on Russia to accept the proposed 30-day ceasefire. In conversations with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Zelensky, Macron discussed diplomatic efforts, the feasibility of a ceasefire, and the technical aspects of its oversight.
Long-Term Vision: NATO Chief Signals Eventual Normalization with Russia
In a striking departure from war-time rhetoric, NATO Chief Mark Rutte offered a glimpse of Europe’s long-term thinking in an interview with Bloomberg published on March 14, suggesting that relations between Europe and Russia would eventually normalize after the war in Ukraine. His comments revealed the alliance’s dual-track approach: maintaining pressure now while acknowledging geopolitical realities for the future.
“First of all, you have to maintain the pressure on the Russians to make sure that they do whatever is necessary. That’s why we have sanctions, and let’s not be naive about the Russians,” Rutte said. “But longer term, Russia is there. I mean, Russia will not go away.”
Rutte described peace as a gradual process, emphasizing that Europe and the U.S. would need to “step by step restore normal relations with the Russians” once the war ends, though he stressed, “we are absolutely not there yet.” The NATO chief also echoed Trump’s position that a peace deal needs to come first before details like security guarantees can be discussed.
“But to discuss how to keep a peace deal, if there is not yet a peace deal, is also a bit strange,” Rutte noted, adding that while troop deployment discussions initiated by the UK and France continue, “before you get into too much detail in terms of how to maintain the peace, you first need to have the deal. And it is a step by step approach, and one after the other. And there I think Trump is right.”
These calibrated comments suggest NATO is balancing the immediate needs of Ukraine’s defense with pragmatic acknowledgment that Russia will remain Europe’s neighbor regardless of the war’s outcome—a delicate balancing act aimed at sustaining support for Ukraine while not closing doors to eventual regional stability.
Human Cost: Violence Strikes Home Front
Away from diplomatic chambers and military headquarters, the brutal reality of war continued to devastate Ukrainian communities. Russian troops attacked a residential area in Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky’s hometown, with ballistic missiles, injuring at least 12 people including two boys aged 2 and 15.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack on the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
The strike damaged four apartment buildings and four houses along with numerous business facilities. Six people required hospitalization. This marked the second attack on the city in a week, following a hotel strike that killed six people and injured over 30 others, including children.
With approximately 660,000 residents, Kryvyi Rih remains a frequent target of Russian missile attacks despite being roughly 70 kilometers from the nearest front line. The continued strikes on civilian targets highlight the disconnect between Putin’s peace rhetoric and Russia’s ongoing targeting of Ukrainian population centers.
In a separate incident that sent shockwaves through Ukraine’s activist community, prominent Ukrainian activist Demyan Hanul was gunned down in central Odesa on March 14. Hours after the assassination, law enforcement detained a potential suspect—reportedly a 46-year-old deserter, according to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Law enforcement officers detained a man suspected of murdering Ukrainian activist Demyan Hanul in Odesa, Ukraine, on March 14, 2025. (Ihor Klymenko/Telegram)
Hanul, 31, was a well-known public figure, blogger, and founder of the Street Front NGO who had participated in the EuroMaidan Revolution and had been active in rallies supporting Ukraine, charity fundraisers for the military, and campaigns to dismantle Soviet monuments. The SBU did not rule out Russian involvement in the murder. Hanul had previously reported threats against his life, claiming in July 2024 that Russian sources had leaked personal information about his relatives and that a $10,000 bounty was offered for an attack on him.
President Zelensky responded swiftly to the killing, ordering a full investigation: “I have instructed the interior minister, the head of the Security Service, the acting prosecutor general to throw all the necessary forces and means to establish all the facts.”
Military Reshuffling: Ukraine’s Corps Structure Takes Shape
Amid battlefield pressures and diplomatic uncertainty, Ukraine continued its military restructuring efforts. The Ukrainian military reorganized the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade into the 3rd Army Corps on March 14, implementing organizational reforms announced by Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi in February.
The transition to a corps structure aims to create an intermediate echelon between Ukraine’s brigades and operational groups of forces, improving command and control while facilitating more effective operations. This transformation represents Ukraine’s adaptation to the evolving demands of modern warfare against a numerically superior adversary.
Justice in Finland: Russian Neo-Nazi Mercenary Sentenced
In a rare moment of accountability for Russian war crimes, the Helsinki District Court sentenced Russian neo-Nazi mercenary Yan Petrovsky to life in prison for atrocities committed in Ukraine. Petrovsky, co-leader of the notorious Rusich paramilitary unit, was convicted of war crimes in Luhansk Oblast dating back to September 5, 2014, during Russia’s initial invasion of Donbas.
Prosecutors presented video evidence showing Petrovsky ordering and participating in the execution of Ukrainian soldiers. Though he denied all accusations, the court ruled that the recordings provided sufficient proof of his involvement. The Rusich group gained infamy for documenting and publishing evidence of its own war crimes, including torture and extrajudicial killings.
The conviction represents a small measure of justice amid the vast landscape of unpunished atrocities in Russia’s war against Ukraine. It also signals that European legal systems remain willing to prosecute war criminals even when extradition to Ukraine is not possible due to human rights concerns about prison conditions.
The Digital Battlefield: Ukraine and EU Strengthen Cyber Cooperation
As physical combat continued, Ukraine and the European Union took steps to deepen cooperation in cybersecurity. The two parties signed a memorandum of understanding at the Kyiv International Cyber Resilience Forum to support joint research, innovation, and EU-funded projects in cross-border cybersecurity.
Serhii Prokopenko, deputy head of cybersecurity at Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council, highlighted the growing threat of Russian hybrid operations. “We see an increased Russian risk appetite—and when I say risk, I mean not risk to them; risk to us, risk to our economies, to the safety of our citizens,” NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai told the European Broadcasting Union.
Beyond defensive measures, Ukraine is pushing to establish dedicated cyber troops. “We are now in an active phase of war and, accordingly, we need to conduct more active operations,” Prokopenko explained, noting that several draft laws in Ukraine’s parliament propose creating such units within the armed forces.
This digital front mirrors the trends on the physical battlefield—with Ukraine adapting its institutional structures to better counter Russian aggression while simultaneously deepening integration with European systems and standards.
Economic Battlegrounds: China Retreats from Russian Oil
As military and diplomatic fronts consumed headlines, quieter economic battles revealed Russia’s growing isolation. Chinese state-owned oil companies are scaling back purchases of Russian crude due to concerns over U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported on March 14, citing industry sources.
State-run Sinopec and Zhenhua Oil have halted supplies entirely, while PetroChina and CNOOC have continued shipments in March but with reduced volumes. A Sinopec source said the company paused purchases to conduct additional compliance checks on U.S. sanctions and awaits a “clear picture” of ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations.
This retreat by China—which accounts for 20% of Russia’s crude exports—signals the effectiveness of American economic pressure at a critical moment in peace negotiations. Despite Beijing’s strengthened economic ties with Moscow since the full-scale invasion, growing concerns over secondary U.S. sanctions have led many Chinese financial institutions to scale back dealings with Russia, potentially limiting Putin’s war financing options if the trend continues.
Balancing Act: Lukashenko Maintains Belarus Autonomy
In Moscow, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko made a revealing declaration during an address to the Russian Federation Council. Belarus will not formally merge with Russia in the near future, he insisted, despite his deep alignment with Putin throughout the war.
“If we are going to burst through this open door, we will ruin everything we have done. It is necessary to go calmly, step by step,” Lukashenko said, pushing back against Kremlin absorption plans that independent Russian media had reported might be revived once the Ukraine war concludes.
The statement offered a glimpse into the complex geopolitical calculations even among Russia’s closest allies. While affirming that Minsk will “always side with Moscow” in international affairs, Lukashenko’s insistence on maintaining Belarus’s formal independence suggests limits to Putin’s empire-building ambitions—at least for now.
The comments came during Lukashenko’s first foreign trip since securing a seventh presidential term in an election widely denounced as fraudulent. His regime has further curtailed political freedoms and deepened alignment with Moscow since the 2020 crackdown on mass protests, providing logistics and military support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanges documents with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko during their bilateral meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace. (Contributor / Getty Images)
Tomorrow’s Battlefield: The Precarious Balancing Act
As night fell on March 14, the war in Ukraine stood at a pivotal juncture. The diplomatic efforts initiated by Trump’s administration had created the possibility of a temporary respite, yet Putin’s maximalist demands threatened to derail the fragile process before it truly began.
Ukrainian forces continued their tactical withdrawals in Kursk while maintaining strike capabilities against Russian infrastructure. European support showed signs of strengthening rather than weakening, despite the uncertain American posture. And behind closed doors, intelligence assessments suggested Putin remains fixated on his original objective: domination of Ukraine.
The coming days will determine whether Trump’s diplomatic gambit can bridge the vast chasm between Putin’s expansionist ambitions and Ukraine’s existential struggle for sovereignty. As Zelensky warned, “The strength of America is enough to make it happen. Strong steps are needed. Strong pressure must be applied to the only one who wants to continue this war.”
For Ukraine, caught between great power politics and the daily reality of missile strikes on civilians, the success or failure of these diplomatic maneuvers carries the highest stakes imaginable—the continued existence of a sovereign nation.