Summary of the Day – March 16, 2025
As Ukraine withdraws from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, diplomatic wheels turn with unprecedented speed. Trump and Putin prepare for direct talks this week while the UK proposes a 10,000-strong peacekeeping mission. Meanwhile, Ukraine appoints a new General Staff chief amid stabilization on the Donbas front but warnings of a potential Russian assault on Sumy Oblast.
The Kursk Retreat: Ukraine’s Strategic Withdrawal
Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed on March 16 what Moscow had claimed days earlier—Ukrainian forces have withdrawn completely from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Rather than announcing the retreat directly, military leadership simply published updated battlefield maps showing the strategic logistics hub was no longer under Ukrainian control.
The withdrawal represents a significant setback for Ukraine’s cross-border operation, launched in August 2024 as a bold gambit to create leverage for future peace negotiations. Russian forces have gradually eroded Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk through relentless artillery bombardment, drone strikes, and the deployment of devastating glide bombs that disrupted Ukrainian supply lines.
Despite unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces being encircled—claims that prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to urge Vladimir Putin to “spare” them—Ukrainian officials maintain no such encirclement occurred. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had acknowledged the difficult situation days earlier, stating his “priority has been and remains to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers” and that his forces would maneuver to “more favorable positions” when necessary.
Leadership Reshuffling: Ukraine’s Military Transformation
Ukraine appointed Major General Andrii Hnatov as the new chief of the General Staff on March 16, part of what Defense Minister Rustem Umerov described as a systematic military reform. Hnatov, previously serving as deputy chief of the General Staff, replaces Anatolii Barhilevych, who had held the position only since February 2024.
The leadership change comes as Ukraine contends with multiple battlefield challenges and seeks to modernize its armed forces. “We are systematically transforming the Armed Forces of Ukraine to enhance their combat effectiveness,” Umerov wrote in his announcement, highlighting Hnatov’s 27 years of military experience, including command of a marine brigade and the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Barhilevych transitions to the role of Defense Ministry chief inspector, tasked with overseeing military standards and improving discipline. The leadership reshuffle reflects Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to implement a corps system modeled after NATO standards, a shift from its current brigade structure aimed at improving cohesion and effectiveness.
President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that Hnatov is “a combat guy” whose mission is to “bring more combat experience, the experience of our brigades in planning operations, defensive and offensive, as well as more active development of the corps system.”
Storm Clouds Over Sumy: Russia’s Gathering Threat
Even as the Donbas front stabilizes, Russian forces are amassing along Ukraine’s northeastern border in preparation for a potential new offensive against Sumy Oblast, President Zelensky warned on March 15. “This speaks to a desire to deliver a strike to our Sumy Oblast,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram. “We understand this and will take countermeasures.”
The Ukrainian president connected this military buildup directly to Moscow’s diplomatic posture, noting that foreign leaders should recognize “that in Moscow they are preparing to ignore diplomacy.” This assessment comes despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, suggesting deep Ukrainian skepticism about Russian intentions.
Geolocated footage published on March 15 confirmed Russian forces have made marginal advances in western Basivka, northeast of Sumy City, while Russian military bloggers claim additional advances southwest of Zhuravka. These movements could be precursors to the larger offensive Zelensky anticipates.
Diplomatic Dance: Trump-Putin Call Expected This Week
Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy who met with Putin in Moscow on March 13, announced on March 16 that a direct call between Trump and Putin is expected this week. “I expect that there will be a call with both presidents this week, and we’re also continuing to engage and have a conversation with the Ukrainians,” Witkoff told CNN.
The envoy expressed optimism that a ceasefire could materialize “within weeks” and characterized his hours-long meeting with Putin as having gone well. “We’re bridging the gap between two sides,” Witkoff said, adding that “the two sides are a lot closer today than they were a few weeks ago. We narrowed the differences.”
Central to these discussions are the four partially Russian-occupied Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Witkoff described as “of critical importance.” He claimed that Putin accepts “Trump’s philosophy” on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, though the specific parameters remain undefined.
The anticipated call represents the most direct engagement yet between the two leaders on ending the war. Kyiv agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S. during talks in Jeddah on March 11, after which Washington resumed military and intelligence support for Ukraine.
Trump publicly denied reports that Witkoff had waited hours for his meeting with Putin, calling media organizations that reported the story “sick degenerates” and claiming that “there was no wait whatsoever.” The president insisted that “all signs seem to be, hopefully, very good” for negotiations.
The Territory-for-Security Equation
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine was expected to exchange territories for security guarantees. “This is going to be some type of territory for future security guarantees, the future status of Ukraine,” Waltz said on ABC News.
Waltz’s statement, referencing “the reality of the situation on the ground,” echoed language frequently used by Russian officials to refer to the current frontline. His comments mark a significant shift in U.S. public messaging about potential peace terms.
The advisor also poured cold water on Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, saying that “a permanent pathway into NATO, or a permanent membership into NATO for Ukraine is incredibly unlikely.” This statement aligns with one of Putin’s core demands throughout the conflict.
Military analysts note that the current frontlines would leave Ukraine highly vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Russian forces currently sit just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, roughly 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia City, and 30 kilometers from Kharkiv City. Without strategic depth, Ukraine would struggle to defend against renewed Russian offensives.
Russia maintains maximalist territorial claims beyond the current battle lines. Putin recently referred to “Novorossiya” (New Russia) as an integral part of Russia, with Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defining this as all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts—territories largely under Ukrainian control.
The Peacekeeping Proposition: UK’s Bold Security Initiative
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer used a high-level virtual summit on March 15 to present plans for a 10,000-strong Western peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. The summit, attended by 29 international leaders, aimed to create a “coalition of the willing” that could provide security guarantees following any ceasefire agreement.
According to U.K. military sources, the proposed peacekeeping force would include troops primarily from Britain and France, while 35 countries have pledged to support the mission with weapons, logistics, and intelligence capabilities. Following the summit, Starmer announced that “troops on the ground and planes in the sky” would provide security guarantees for Ukraine, with the coalition set to reconvene on March 20 for further military talks.
The proposed force represents a scaled-down version of earlier suggestions. Starmer had reportedly pitched deploying 30,000 troops during his White House meeting with Trump in February, while Zelensky previously suggested that effective deterrence would require 100,000 to 150,000 European troops.
Not all countries have embraced the proposal. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, though voicing support for Ukraine during the summit, indicated that Italy does not plan to participate in the proposed force.
French President Emmanuel Macron pushed back against Russian objections to Western security guarantees, stating on March 15 that “Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it.” Macron has joined the UK in championing the deployment of Western peacekeepers as an alternative security guarantee for Kyiv.
Russia’s Ceasefire Calculus: Genuine Interest or Tactical Delay?
While Ukraine accepted a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire during talks in Jeddah on March 11, Russia’s response has been more equivocal. Putin said on March 13 that Russia was ready to agree to the ceasefire but attached significant conditions: Ukraine must not mobilize or train troops during the truce, and Western countries must halt military aid to Kyiv.
Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, framed Western ceasefire proposals as attempts to give Ukrainian forces “a pause during a difficult period,” noting that “the Russian army is advancing on all fronts.” He suggested Moscow views the ceasefire proposal as “a way to allow Ukraine to strengthen its position” rather than as a genuine path to lasting peace.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by phone on March 15, with both sides agreeing to continue dialogue. However, their respective readouts revealed telling discrepancies—Russian statements emphasized “mutual understandings” from a February meeting in Riyadh, while U.S. readouts made no such references.
Rubio later described his conversation with Lavrov as “promising” while acknowledging the complexities of ending the war. He outlined the U.S. administration’s two-phase approach: “Plan A is, get the shooting to stop so that we can move to Plan B, phase two, which is have everybody at a table… to figure out a way to permanently end this war in a way that’s enduring.”
Red Lines and Realities: Ukraine’s Negotiating Boundaries
Despite pressure to make territorial concessions, Ukrainian officials maintain they have clear boundaries in any peace negotiations. According to senior Ukrainian sources who spoke to the UK’s Independent newspaper on March 16, Kyiv has four non-negotiable terms: no further territory ceded to Russia; the return of thousands of Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia; the return of thousands of civilians illegally detained; and international security guarantees if Moscow breaks any future ceasefire.
“We are really willing to make peace, but we need a long-lasting peace, not a short ceasefire,” a high-level Ukrainian source said. Ukrainian officials indicated willingness to accept a freeze along current battle lines but rejected Russian demands to surrender territories not currently occupied. “It is not reasonable to demand that, for example, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson be fully handed over—that sounds like a f*** off to us,” one official said.
Zelensky reinforced this position on March 12, stating that Ukraine “will not recognize any occupied territories as Russia’s” as a condition of any peace deal. “This is the most important red line,” he said.
Securing Ukraine’s Future: The European Funding Initiative
As diplomatic discussions continue between Washington and Moscow, European nations are stepping up with their own proposals to support Ukraine’s long-term security. Lithuania has voiced strong support for an EU initiative that would provide Ukraine with up to 40 billion euros ($43.5 billion) in military aid this year, with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys arguing that similar funding will be necessary in future years to prevent another Russian attack.
“If we can sustain this amount… for a longer period of time, that would be the amount that would allow Ukrainians to keep their armed forces at current strength,” Budrys told Reuters on March 16. The Baltic state, which ranks among Europe’s top defense spenders at 2.85% of GDP, plans to increase that figure to between 5% and 6% from 2026 to 2030.
EU foreign ministers are set to discuss the proposal in Brussels, with the plan introduced by the bloc’s diplomatic service under former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Budrys emphasized that long-term military support for Kyiv should not be tied to any potential peace talks. “Ukraine’s armed forces will be the main deterrence forces for Russians not to return,” he said.
New Canadian Leadership: Carney Pledges Support
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed Canada’s ongoing support for Ukraine in a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 16. Carney, who was sworn in on March 14, replacing former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, wasted no time in affirming his country’s commitment to Ukraine.
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addresses the media after being sworn in at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
The leaders discussed increasing pressure on Moscow through new sanctions against Russia’s banking sector and its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. They also addressed security guarantees for Ukraine, including Canada’s commitment to providing economic support after the war ends, as well as defense cooperation and the possibility of joint production of long-range weapons and electronic warfare equipment.
Canada recently participated in the “coalition of the willing” virtual summit convened by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Following the conference, Carney reiterated his support for Ukraine, writing, “Canada supports the proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. Now, Russia must stop stalling and launching its attacks. It’s time for Russia to come to the table in good faith.”
Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canada provided 19.5 billion Canadian dollars ($13.5 billion) in assistance to Ukraine, including 4.5 billion Canadian dollars ($3.1 billion) in military aid.
Ramstein Reloaded: Ukraine Prepares for Next Summit
Ukraine is preparing for the next Ramstein summit, President Zelensky announced in his evening address on March 16. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is organizing the next Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group (UDCG), with Zelensky simply stating, “We are preparing for Brussels.”
The last Ramstein-format UDCG meeting took place in Brussels on February 12 under the chairmanship of the UK—a position previously held by the US. Leadership over Ramstein transitioned following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. While specific dates have yet to be confirmed, the next summit will likely take place in late March or early April.
Zelensky also mentioned that Ukraine is acquiring more ammunition, including artillery shells and additional missiles for its IRIS-T, NASAMS, and SAMP/T air defense systems.
The Shadow of Violence: Continuing Attacks Despite Peace Talks
Even as diplomatic channels buzz with ceasefire discussions, Russian forces continue their daily assault on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine’s Air Force reported on March 16 that it had shot down 47 Russian Shahed and other drones across the country overnight, with attacks targeting nine oblasts, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa.
The unrelenting nature of these attacks raises questions about Russia’s commitment to peace negotiations. Ukrainian officials point to the continued bombardment as evidence that Moscow is merely using diplomatic talks as cover while pursuing military advantages on the ground.
Similarly, a Ukrainian drone regiment commander reported on March 15 that Ukrainian forces have damaged numerous Russian air defense systems along the frontline, creating “holes” in Russia’s air defense umbrella. The Ukrainian unit claimed to have destroyed four Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems worth an estimated $56 million over an unspecified period.
Ukrainian Forces Counter Russian Advances Along Multiple Fronts
The battlefield situation remains fluid across multiple sectors. In the Borova direction, geolocated footage published on March 15 confirmed Ukrainian forces had recently advanced in southern Nadiya, east of Borova, a rare bright spot for Ukrainian forces amid Russian pressure on several fronts.
In the Velyka Novosilka direction, however, Russian forces made confirmed advances in the fields south of Vesele, with Russian military bloggers claiming even greater progress in nearby areas. Russian forces also conducted ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with unconfirmed claims of seizing the settlement of Stepove.
Medics of the 3rd Operational Assignment Spartan Brigade ‘Petro Bolbochan’ treat the wounded Ukrainian soldiers at a medical stabilization point near the frontline in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Jose Colon / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Russian forces have intensified assaults in both Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, attributing the increased activity to improved weather conditions and Russian preparations for future offensive operations. In the Kherson direction, Voloshyn noted that Russian forces have recently intensified efforts to land troops on islands in the Dnipro River and near the Antonivsky Bridge.
The Human Cost: Assassination of Ukrainian Activist
Beyond the battlefield and diplomatic developments, the human toll of the conflict continues to mount. On March 16, Serhii Shalaiev pleaded guilty to the murder of Ukrainian activist Demyan Hanul, who was shot dead in central Odesa two days earlier.
Hanul, 31, was well-known for his public activism, including participation in Ukraine’s EuroMaidan Revolution and efforts to dismantle Soviet monuments. Prosecutors charged Shalaiev with premeditated murder committed under order and illegal handling of weapons, suggesting the killing may have been politically motivated.
People attend memorial event for murdered activist Demyan Hanul in Odesa, Ukraine. (Viacheslav Onishchenko/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Investigators are pursuing several possible motives, including a contract killing linked to Hanul’s political activism, a crime of personal animosity, or an assassination linked to Russia. Hanul had previously reported threats against his life, claiming in July 2024 that Russian sources had leaked personal information about his relatives and that a $10,000 bounty was offered for an attack on him.
The Path Forward: Uncertain Prospects for Peace
As March 16 drew to a close, the prospects for peace remained uncertain despite accelerated diplomatic efforts. Competing agendas and deep-seated distrust continue to complicate negotiations, with significant gaps remaining between Ukrainian and Russian positions, particularly regarding territorial concessions and future security arrangements.
The expected phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin could prove pivotal in determining whether the diplomatic momentum translates into a viable ceasefire. The UK’s proposal for a 10,000-strong peacekeeping mission represents an alternative approach to securing Ukraine, one that could complement or potentially complicate U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives.
For Ukraine’s leadership and its citizens, the fundamental questions remain: What price will they be asked to pay for peace, and what guarantees will they receive that any peace will be lasting rather than merely a Russian pause before renewed aggression? As diplomatic maneuvers accelerate and battlefield positions shift, these questions take on ever greater urgency.