As Russian forces capture Sudzha and advance through Kursk Oblast, Kremlin deliberates over US-Ukrainian temporary truce agreement while Trump warns of “devastating” consequences for Russian rejection
Summary of the Day – March 12, 2025
Putin has offered only a vague response to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal, with Kremlin sources indicating they may drag out negotiations to extract maximum concessions while continuing battlefield operations. Russian forces made significant advances in Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian troops retreating from Sudzha after seven months of occupation. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky affirmed Ukraine’s commitment to the ceasefire despite not trusting Russia, stating he wanted to demonstrate to Washington and Europe that Kyiv is serious about ending the war.
Russian attacks across Ukraine overnight killed at least 14 civilians, including Syrian crew members of a cargo ship struck in Odesa port. The 30-day ceasefire—which would halt all combat operations on land, sea, and air if Russia agrees—emerged from high-level US-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia, with President Donald Trump warning that Moscow could face “devastating” financial consequences should it reject the proposal. In a concerning development for Ukrainian security, a Russian intelligence operation recruited two teenagers in Ivano-Frankivsk for a bombing attack before remotely detonating their explosive devices, killing one youth and injuring the other along with two passersby.
Kremlin Offers Vague Response to Ceasefire Proposal, May Seek Preemptive Concessions
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal, stating only that “we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves.” Peskov indicated that Russia expects US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to inform the Kremlin about the details of the US-Ukrainian negotiations.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that its sources in the Russian government stated that the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal surprised the Kremlin, and a source close to the Russian presidential administration stated that the Kremlin expected the United States to discuss such a proposal with Russia in private before publicly announcing it.
Putin may hold the ceasefire proposal hostage to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started. Reuters reported that senior Russian sources stated that a deal on the temporary ceasefire would have to “take into account” Russia’s advances on the battlefield and “address Russia’s concerns.”
A source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire, but did not specify whether such a halt would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine or only those from select countries. Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and China.
According to Verstka, a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would “formally” give a “positive response” to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand “impossible conditions” to which Ukraine cannot agree. The source stated that Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so that Russia can engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also “correcting the situation on the front” to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position.
“We’re Ready for Peace”: Zelensky Explains Ukraine’s Ceasefire Decision
Ukraine wanted to demonstrate to U.S. President Donald Trump and its European partners that it is serious about ending the war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 12 about why Kyiv agreed to Washington’s temporary truce proposal.
While Ukraine initially proposed a partial ceasefire that would extend only to aerial and naval operations, U.S. delegates proposed a full truce during talks with Ukrainian officials in Jeddah on March 11. After receiving the proposal, Zelensky said Ukraine was “ready for a 30-day ceasefire format offered by the U.S. side.”
“I have repeatedly stressed that none of us trust Russia… but we will not play with narratives that we want the war to continue,” Zelensky said at a press conference. “I am very serious, and it is important for me to end the war. I want the U.S. president to see this; so that Europe and everybody unites to push Russia toward ending the war.”
According to Zelensky, support from Kyiv’s international partners will be required for “technical monitoring” of a full ceasefire. He also raised the question of whether Moscow is open to the agreement.
“If Russia accepts the US proposal, I believe there will be appropriate steps forward. If they reject it, we hope the American side will demonstrate exactly what it said,” Zelensky added.
The Ukrainian president also noted that the ceasefire would be only the first step toward a full peace. After the war ends, martial law will be lifted, and elections will be held, he added. Kyiv and Washington have agreed to begin technical-level discussions on the temporary 30-day ceasefire next week, Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak said after the talks in Saudi Arabia.
Russian Forces Seize Sudzha, Advance Through Kursk Oblast
Russian forces have seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March 12. Multiple Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Russian troops had entered the key Ukrainian-held stronghold in the Russian border region, with fighting reportedly ongoing.
According to DeepState, Russian forces have entered the eastern part of Sudzha and are entrenching their positions. Russian state news agency TASS published purported drone footage claiming that Russian troops had entered the town center and raised a Russian flag.
The situation in Kursk appears increasingly dire for Ukrainian forces, with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claiming Russian forces have recaptured 24 settlements and 259 square kilometers (100 square miles) of territory in Kursk Oblast, representing more than 86% of the territory Ukraine had seized since August.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed ongoing battles in the suburbs of Sudzha and the surrounding areas. “In the most difficult situation, my priority has been and remains to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. To do this, the units of the Defense Forces, if necessary, maneuver to more favorable positions,” said Syrskyi. He added that Ukraine will hold the defense in Kursk Oblast “as long as reasonable and necessary.”
President Zelensky acknowledged the difficult situation but urged a “sober” assessment rather than reacting to Russian information warfare. “The military command is doing what it should do, preserving the maximum of lives of our soldiers,” Zelensky said during a briefing.
Russia launched a renewed offensive in Kursk Oblast last week, making rapid advances that coincided with the U.S. temporarily pausing military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have been hampered by Russian forces cutting off logistics routes, particularly a section of about 10 kilometers of the main highway in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast between the village of Yunakivka and the Sudzha border crossing.
Putin Visits Kursk Command Post, Orders Creation of “Security Zone”
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast for the first time since Ukraine’s incursion in August 2024 — demonstrating Putin’s desire to use Russia’s seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.
Putin, donning military attire rather than his usual suit, met with Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov at the command post. He thanked various military units for their efforts in Kursk Oblast and acknowledged that Russian forces have yet to completely push Ukrainian forces out of the region, stating that Russian forces must seize all of Kursk Oblast “in the shortest possible time.”
This is only the second time that Putin has visited Russian forces on the frontline since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The choice of military uniform—a departure from his April 2023 visits to occupied territories where he wore a suit—appears designed to portray him as an engaged wartime leader similar to President Zelensky, who has consistently worn military attire throughout the conflict.
During the visit, Putin asked Gerasimov to “think in the future about creating a security zone” along the Ukrainian-Russian international border, signaling potential plans for a buffer zone following the recapture of Kursk Oblast. He also ordered that Ukrainian soldiers captured in Kursk Oblast should be labeled as “terrorists,” a concerning development for prisoner exchanges.
Putin’s visit and the timing of these statements suggest an attempt to project strength ahead of US-Russian meetings about the ceasefire proposal, including a meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on March 13.
US Emissaries “On Their Way to Russia” as Trump Warns of Consequences
American representatives are on their way to Russia to discuss a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 12 during a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin in the White House.
“We have people going to Russia right now,” Trump said. Speaking to journalists in the Oval Office, the U.S. president said Washington has “some positive messages about a possible ceasefire.” He added that the potential of the temporary truce is now up to Russia.
Trump also warned that Russia could face “devastating” financial consequences if it chooses to continue its all-out war against Ukraine. “There are things you can do that wouldn’t be pleasant in a financial sense,” he said. “It would be very bad for Russia. I don’t want to do that, because I want to get peace.”
Trump indicated he might speak with Putin this week, emphasizing the need to engage with Russia and expressing hope that negotiations could move forward. “It takes two for tango, as I have already said, so I hope he (Putin) will also agree as well, and I really think that would be 75% of the way, the rest is getting it documented,” he said.
In a sign of reopened channels between Washington and Moscow, Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and CIA Director John Ratcliffe held a telephone conversation on March 11. The intelligence services reportedly agreed to maintain communication “to help ensure international stability and security, as well as to reduce confrontation.”
Intelligence Sharing Fully Restored as US Lifts Restrictions
Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. director of national intelligence, confirmed on March 12 that the U.S. had resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine per President Donald Trump’s direction. “Because of @POTUS leadership, we are one significant step closer to ending the bloody war in Ukraine,” Gabbard said on X. “Per the President’s direction, the pause on intelligence sharing with Ukraine has ended.”
The U.S. had restricted intelligence sharing with Ukraine on March 5, shortly after pausing all military assistance flowing to the country. The steps followed a heated exchange between Trump and President Zelensky in the White House on February 28.
U.S. intelligence has been crucial for Kyiv in planning precision strikes against Russia, monitoring the movement of Russian troops, and detecting Russia’s aerial strikes. The full impact of the intelligence sharing pause remains unclear, though during that brief period, Russia achieved a significant breakthrough in Kursk Oblast.
U.S. aerospace company Maxar Technologies has also restored Ukraine’s access to the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery (GEGD) service, allowing Kyiv to utilize high-resolution commercial satellite imagery again. Ukraine relies on such imagery for defense and strategic planning, including tracking Russian troop movements, assessing battlefield conditions, and monitoring damage to Russian infrastructure.
The resumption of both U.S. military aid and intelligence support represents a significant diplomatic victory for Ukraine following the successful talks in Jeddah.
Teenagers Used as Unwitting Bombers in Russian Intelligence Operation
Russia’s intelligence service blew up two teenagers it had recruited to carry out a terrorist attack in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk on the evening of March 11, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on March 12.
According to law enforcement, the recruited agents were two teenagers aged 15 and 17 who sought quick money on Telegram channels. Russian intelligence services allegedly recruited them online and offered payment for carrying out a series of terror attacks in the city.
A Russian handler rented an apartment for the teenagers in a high-rise building near the local railway station, the SBU said. Following Russia’s instructions, the two made explosives and two devices disguised as thermoses. They equipped both explosives with remote detonators, according to the SBU.
The teenagers were allegedly heading to a designated location to place one of the explosive devices when the Russian intelligence service activated the explosives in their package. Another explosive was detonated in the rented apartment, effectively eliminating them as unwanted witnesses.
The 17-year-old boy was killed, and the 15-year-old was hospitalized with serious injuries. Two passers-by — a 20-year-old man and a 23-year-old woman — also suffered injuries. If charged, the 15-year-old could face life imprisonment.
The remote detonation of self-made devices used in Russian intelligence planned attacks is a new tactic of Moscow’s in its covert operations against Ukraine, allowing it to carry out attacks while getting rid of perpetrators, Serhii Andrushchenko, SBU’s deputy head, previously told the Kyiv Independent.
The SBU warned that Russian intelligence services have adopted a new tactic of exploiting operatives “in the dark” and then eliminating them as unwanted witnesses. “If you or your friends are asked to ‘simply deliver a package’ to a territorial recruitment center, police station, or other administrative building, know that they are trying to kill you,” the SBU stated.
Deadly Russian Attacks Across Ukraine Kill 14, Including Syrian Ship Crew
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 14 civilians and injured at least 41 over the past day, regional authorities reported on March 12. The casualties included children and Syrian crew members of a merchant vessel in Odesa.
Russia launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles against Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, as well as 133 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones against Ukraine overnight, the Air Force reported. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 98 drones over 15 regions, while 20 decoy drones disappeared from radars without causing damage.
A Russian ballistic missile struck the port in Odesa, damaging infrastructure and the Barbados-flagged merchant vessel MJ Pina, which was loading wheat for export to Algeria. Four Syrian crew members, aged between 18 and 24, were killed, while another Syrian crew member and one Ukrainian port employee were injured. Another ship and grain warehouses were also damaged.
Iryna Petrochenko, 50, looks out from a damaged apartment after a Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih. The attack killed a 47-year-old woman and wounded at least 16 others. (Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, at least one person was killed and 16 injured during Russian attacks. A series of explosions were reported in Kryvyi Rih after Russia launched a missile strike against the city early on March 12. A 47-year-old woman was killed, while 16 other people were injured, with eight hospitalized and three in serious condition. High-rise buildings, administrative buildings, buses, garages, cars, shops, and a school were damaged.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
The attacks in Donetsk Oblast were particularly lethal, with seven people killed and 13 injured over the past day. In Kherson Oblast, two people were killed and seven injured, including two children, with damage to high-rise buildings, houses, and infrastructure.
Two-Thirds of Ukrainians See Russia’s Goal as Genocide, Poll Shows
The vast majority of Ukrainians – 66% – see Russia as an existential threat, believing Russia’s goal in the war is to commit physical genocide of Ukrainians, seize all or most of Ukraine’s territory, and destroy Ukraine as a nation, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
A total of 87% of all Ukrainians said Russia does not want to stop at the Ukrainian territories it already occupied from 2014-2024. In western and central Ukraine, which are further from the front line, 89-90% of Ukrainians support this statement, and 80% in the eastern and southern regions.
“Our surveys show that the higher threat Ukrainians perceive, the more they are willing to continue the resistance and reject unacceptable demands,” KIIS wrote. More citizens of Ukraine in the west (70%), in the center (68%) and in the south (62%) are convinced that Russia wants to commit physical genocide or destroy Ukrainian statehood and the nation. In the east, 46% of respondents shared this point of view.
According to the same polling organization, 47.1% of Ukrainians consider it “completely unacceptable” to agree to territorial concessions and give up on NATO membership as a prerequisite to ending the war. Only 8.2% said they would “easily agree” to this scenario, while 38.1% of respondents called this option difficult but “generally acceptable.”
“Nowadays, one can often hear the statement of G. Meir, ‘You cannot negotiate with someone who has come to kill you.’ For the average Ukrainian, these words fully reflect the realities of the brutal war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for many years under false pretenses,” said Anton Hrushetskyi, deputy head of KIIS.
Erdogan Hopes Russia Will “Respond Constructively” to Ceasefire
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that he hoped Moscow would “respond constructively” to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which Kyiv has accepted.
“We consider Ukraine’s acceptance of a ceasefire as positive and important. We now hope Russia will respond constructively,” Erdogan said at a joint news conference with visiting Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “Turkey’s attitude towards this war has been very clear since the first day. We do not want any more bloodshed, and we hope that our two neighbors end the war by a just peace.”
Tusk for his part said he hoped Ankara would play an important role in promoting peace. “I made a clear proposal to President Erdogan: that Turkey assumes the greatest possible responsibility in the peace process, in ensuring stability and security throughout our region,” he said.
Before leaving Warsaw, Tusk said it was “very important that NATO and European countries simultaneously and effectively guarantee the stability… of the Russian-Ukraine border” after any truce was signed. “Turkey’s role could be crucial in this respect,” he added.
Erdogan again proposed that Turkey host any peace talks “if the latest developments bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
Small Russian Infantry Groups Step Up Attacks in Ukraine’s South
Small Russian infantry groups have stepped up assault operations in Ukraine’s south over the past two weeks as they look to improve Moscow’s battlefield positions, a spokesperson for the military told Ukrinform on March 12.
Thirty-five attacks have been recorded in the area today so far, with Russian forces pushing on the Huliaipole and Orikhiv sectors in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said Vladyslav Voloshyn, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command.
“This is not an offensive or part of the enemy’s strategic actions, but tactical attempts to improve their position relative to the combat line,” Voloshyn said. Russia has also intensified artillery shelling and air and missile strikes on Ukraine’s Tavria group of forces, which covers Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Voloshyn’s statement comes amid Russia’s breakthrough in embattled Kursk Oblast. Previously, President Zelensky said that Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk Oblast prevented Russian forces from carrying out large-scale operations in northeastern and southern Ukraine.
Parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts have been occupied by Russian forces since the full-scale invasion of 2022. The regions remain a regular target of Russian aerial attacks. The Ukrainian military warned in fall 2024 that Russian forces were amassing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in preparation for a southern offensive. Heavy fortifications were constructed around the regional capital of Zaporizhzhia ahead of the possible renewed push.
French and German Defense Companies See Opportunity in European Rearmament
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall said Wednesday that moves by European capitals to ramp up military expenditure and reduce their reliance on the United States were a massive growth opportunity for the defense sector.
“An era of rearmament has begun in Europe that will demand a lot from all of us,” Rheinmetall’s chief Armin Papperger said in a statement as the group published its annual results. The development opens up “growth prospects for the coming years that we have never experienced before.”
The return of President Donald Trump has shaken confidence in Washington’s long-standing commitment to European security and spurred governments on the continent to promise increased defense spending. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had already given new impetus to the European sector, with Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest defense company, among the beneficiaries.
The company said its overall sales rose to €9.8 billion ($10.7 billion) last year from €7.2 billion the previous year, a 36% increase. In its military business alone, growth was stronger with revenues climbing 50% on a year.
While European firms like Rheinmetall still lag far behind US competitors in terms of size, rising defense spending in Europe had the potential to propel the sector to new heights. The new diplomatic line out of Washington is a “paradigm change” that will “force Europe to invest more in defense,” Papperger told reporters.
Meanwhile, French lawmakers on Wednesday were debating a resolution urging France and allies to provide more support for Ukraine, including by seizing tens of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets. The draft resolution encourages the European Union to use the frozen Russian assets “to support the Ukrainian resistance and reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank Continues to Invest in Sanctioned Russian Companies
Raiffeisen Bank International’s (RBI) Russian assets manager continues to hold and promote investments in sanctioned Russian companies and government bonds, according to a joint investigation by the BankTrack NGO and the B4Ukraine coalition published on March 12.
As of January, Raiffeisen Capital held around 31.7 billion rubles ($365 million) in shares and bonds in entities sanctioned by the U.S. and the EU for their role in supporting Russian aggression in Ukraine, the report said, citing financial documents. This sum is only part of the overall value of 70.9 billion ($818 million) rubles reportedly held across 10 funds.
Austria’s Raiffeisen banking group has been long scrutinized for failing to exit the Russian market despite the EU sanctions imposed at the outbreak of the full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. The investigation highlights that these assets included roughly 2.7 billion rubles ($31 million) in state bonds issued after March 9, 2022, a cut-off date past which the EU banned trade in any transferable securities issued by the Russian government.
The asset manager’s other investments reportedly include about 1.6 billion rubles ($18.5 million) worth of shares in the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank and 2.2 billion rubles ($25.4 million) in the state energy giant Gazprom, both under Western sanctions.
“We must call these investments what they are: war profiteering with reckless disregard for the Ukrainian people and for European efforts to sanction the Russian war machine,” said Max Hammer, a human rights campaigner at BankTrack. “RBI must address and be made to answer for these violations, and it must provide detailed information on its financial links to the Russian war machine.”
China, Iran, and Russia Conduct Joint Naval Drills in Gulf of Oman
China, Iran, and Russia conducted joint naval drills on March 11 in the Gulf of Oman, Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported. The exercises, named Maritime Security Belt 2025, were held near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route through which a fifth of the world’s traded crude oil passes.
China, Iran, and Russia have maintained close ties, with Beijing and Tehran supporting Moscow’s war effort despite Western sanctions. The latest drills come as Russia deepens military cooperation with Iran, which has supplied Moscow with thousands of Shahed attack drones used in strikes against Ukraine. China has become Russia’s largest supplier of dual-use goods — components that can be used in weapons production.
The three countries have carried out similar exercises in past years, including in 2023 and 2024. The latest joint drills highlight ongoing coordination between the three authoritarian regimes as divisions grow in the West over U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy shifts, including reduced military commitments in Europe.