Summary of the day: Russian President Vladimir Putin misrepresented the Ukrainian Constitution to claim that President Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president, a move countered by Ukrainian Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe condemned Russia’s erasure of Ukrainian culture, labeling it part of a genocidal campaign. Russia is preparing to intensify the deportation of Ukrainian children, and Iran continues to support Russia’s defense capabilities. Ukrainian forces made advances near Lyptsi, while Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. Additionally, Portugal and Belgium signed long-term security agreements with Ukraine.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened NATO, urging them to maintain restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons against Russian targets. Putin warned NATO states, saying they are “small” and “densely populated” and should consider this when thinking about lifting the restrictions.
Russian officials continue to misrepresent NATO defensive exercises. General Vladimir Kulishov of the Russian FSB claimed that NATO is increasingly conducting training exercises that simulate nuclear strikes against Russia.
Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia must fight a global neo-Nazi movement and likened Russia’s current efforts to the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazism in World War II.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko echoed Russian claims of Western aggression, stating that the West is conducting a hybrid war against Belarus and trying to drag it into other conflicts. Belarus, supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, has allowed Russian forces to use its territory for the invasion and is helping deport Ukrainian children from occupied areas.
The Georgian Parliament overrode President Salome Zurabishvili’s veto of the “foreign agents” law with an 84-to-4 vote. Despite Zurabishvili’s veto, Parliament Chairperson Shalva Papuashvili, a member of the ruling Georgian Dream party, is expected to sign the law. Zurabishvili urged protestors to gather signatures for a referendum against the law, but this requires both her and the Prime Minister’s approval. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze supports the law, claiming it strengthens Georgia’s sovereignty and EU membership chances. However, the EU has stated that the law contradicts its principles and harms Georgia’s EU candidacy. This move is seen as potentially derailing Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration, aligning with Russian interests to destabilize the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin supported removing the Taliban from Russia’s list of prohibited organizations, suggesting this will happen soon. Putin emphasized the need to build relations with the Taliban, who control Afghanistan. Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev noted that Russia is close to establishing full relations with the Taliban. Russia has maintained contacts with the Taliban since they took over Afghanistan in August 2021 and may use this relationship to counter the Afghan-based Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP). Putin’s comments indicate Russia is aligning with Central Asian states in normalizing relations with the Taliban.
A Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger baselessly claimed that the US controls Moldova’s Central Election Commission and suggested the US will manipulate Moldova’s October 2024 presidential election. The milblogger also accused NATO of using Moldova to prepare for a future war against Russia, part of the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilize Moldovan democracy.
Peace Talks
Putin claimed that Russia is willing to negotiate but not with the current Ukrainian government, which he deems illegitimate. He referenced the 2022 Istanbul negotiations but blamed the West for prolonging the war, stating he has no clear answer on future negotiations due to his stance on Ukraine’s leadership.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
On May 27, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck the former Luhansk Military Aviation School of Navigators in Luhansk City with cluster munition-armed ATACMS missiles. Geolocated footage shows an explosion near an airfield in Luhansk City.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces regained limited positions north of Kharkiv City amid ongoing Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces retaking positions southeast of Lukyantsi, northeast of Lyptsi. Both sides reported continued fighting in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk areas, with claims of Russian advances up to 600 meters near Vovchansk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing battles near Starytsya and Tykhe, with Russian forces using TOS-2 thermobaric artillery and conducting glide bomb strikes on Vovchansk infrastructure.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensives along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers claimed advances of 400 meters near Berestove and one kilometer toward Myasozharivka, though there is no visual evidence. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Stepova Novoselivka. Footage showed a Russian flag in Bilohorivka, but control of the area is unconfirmed. Fighting persisted near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoselivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, Serebryanske forest area, and Dibrova.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces recently conducted four small-scale mechanized assaults in Donetsk Oblast to test Ukrainian reactions after their offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Footage from May 27 and 28 shows these attacks near Chasiv Yar, Novopokrovske, Novomykhailivka, and Staromayorske. Russian forces made minor advances near Novopokrovske and Staromayorske but did not advance near Chasiv Yar or Novomykhailivka. The attacks aimed to gauge Ukrainian defenses and exploit potential opportunities before Western military aid arrives. Russian forces have slowed attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast and increased activity around Avdiivka in recent days.
Siversk
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, and Vyimka in the Siversk direction, northeast of Bakhmut. A Russian milblogger claimed a one-kilometer advance, but this has not been confirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks east of Chasiv Yar without making recent confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed captures in eastern Kalynivka and advances in the Kanal Microraion and Chasiv Yar. Footage from May 27 shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanized attack in the area. Russian forces also attacked near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Earlier geolocated footage from May 20 confirmed a Russian advance north of Kalynivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made a small advance during a platoon-sized mechanized attack northwest of Avdiivka before being repelled by Ukrainian forces. Geolocated footage shows this occurred in fields east of Novopokrovske. Russian milbloggers claimed advances north of Umanske, south and southeast of Netaylove, and near the Karlivske Reservoir and Karlivka, with some reports of fighting in Karlivka. However, no visual evidence confirms these claims. Russian forces also continued attacks near Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, Kalynove, Ocheretyne, Sokil, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces conducted a reduced company-sized mechanized attack southwest of Donetsk City but made no confirmed advances. Footage shows Ukrainian forces repelling this attack near Novomykhailivka. Russian milbloggers claimed advances south of Novomykhailivka and within Paraskoviivka, but these claims lack visual confirmation. Additionally, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane, west and southwest of Donetsk City.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces made a confirmed advance during a reduced-company-sized mechanized attack south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Geolocated footage shows this advance in central Staromayorske. A Russian milblogger claimed they advanced 100 meters deep and 250 meters wide in Staromayorske and its eastern outskirts. Additionally, Russian forces continued ground attacks in Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast without confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting persisted near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Mali Shcherbaky. A Russian milblogger claimed fewer Russian assaults on the Robotyne-Verbove line due to insufficient cover and electronic warfare systems.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional engagements continued in eastern Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. Russian milbloggers are divided, with some claiming Russian forces fully seized Krynky, while others say Ukrainian forces still hold parts of it.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched three Shahed-136/131 drones from Krasnodar Krai against Ukraine on the night of May 27-28. Ukrainian forces shot down all three drones over Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Russian forces conducted a KAB glide bomb strike on Kyivskyi Raion in Kharkiv City.
Ukrenergo’s supervisory board member Yuriy Boyko announced that scheduled power outages may continue throughout the summer due to damage from Russian strikes. All Ukrenergo thermal power plants have been damaged or destroyed, reducing their share of electricity production from 30% to 5%.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Committee on Culture supported a resolution recognizing Russia’s erasure of Ukrainian culture as part of its genocidal campaign in occupied Ukraine. Chairperson Yevheniia Kravchuk announced the unanimous support for the resolution, which acknowledges Russia’s “cultural purges” as an indicator of genocidal intent. The resolution, to be voted on in June 2024, affirms that Russia’s actions aim to destroy Ukrainian identity and culture, contributing to a broader genocidal policy. The resolution marks an important step in international recognition of cultural genocide.
Portugal and Belgium signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro agreed on €126 million ($138 million) in Portuguese military support for Ukraine in 2024. In Brussels, Zelensky and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo signed an agreement providing €977 million ($1 billion) in Belgian military aid for 2024 and continued support for the next decade. Belgium will also supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 jets by 2028. Belgium and Portugal are the eleventh and twelfth countries to sign such agreements with Ukraine.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military is increasing recruitment efforts in Central African countries to fight in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate reported that Russia is targeting recruits from Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Uganda, offering $2,000 upfront, a $2,200 monthly salary, health insurance, and Russian citizenship for recruits and their families.
Russian opposition media reported that military authorities in Moscow Oblast recently detained 15 to 60 conscripts previously deemed unfit for service due to health issues. Doctors at recruitment offices are reportedly ignoring health conditions that should exempt individuals from service. Despite official assurances that conscripts won’t be sent to combat zones in Ukraine, it is likely that the Russian military is pressuring conscripts to sign contracts for deployment.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities plan to intensify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia throughout summer 2024 as part of their genocidal campaign. On May 27, Luhansk People’s Republic Head Leonid Pasechnik announced that over 12,000 children from occupied Luhansk Oblast and 40,000 from occupied Ukraine will be sent to Russia for summer camps and educational activities. Camps in occupied Crimea and Russia, including “Okean” in Vladivostok, will host over 600 children, and adolescents from Luhansk Oblast will participate in military-patriotic sports camps in Russia. These programs, framed as recreational and educational, are recognized acts of genocide. Deported children face Russification, isolating them from their Ukrainian families, language, culture, and history. Despite being presented as positive opportunities, these efforts are expected to escalate over the summer.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers have praised new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the recent dismissals of senior defense officials, criticizing the corruption and ineptitude under former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. This praise marks a shift from the self-censorship that followed the Wagner Group rebellion in June 2023. The positive reception helps rehabilitate the Ministry of Defense’s image and secures loyalty from Putin’s core supporters. However, a former Storm-Z instructor’s warning about ongoing systemic issues suggests that skepticism and prior complaints may resurface. Despite some criticism being allowed, self-censorship among milbloggers likely continues.
A segment of the Russian ultranationalist community has resumed public criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and expressed doubts about new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s ability to address systemic issues. A former Storm-Z instructor highlighted problems such as inadequate training, high casualties, no troop rotations, poor decision-making, and lack of accountability, which are interconnected and cyclical. Other milbloggers agreed, noting that middle management fails to treat the war in Ukraine as an actual war. They believe that retaining officials like General Valery Gerasimov indicates unresolved systemic issues, and the effectiveness of new deputy defense ministers will be telling.
Russia’s Allies
Iran continues to support Russia’s defense industry, boosting its military capabilities in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia is using Iranian technology to produce Shahed-136/131 drones at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, recruiting labor from eastern Africa. Russia aims to produce 6,000 Shahed drones in 2024, with 4,500 already made by April. Advanced models of these drones are being used against Ukraine. Iran is also supplying Russia with Qaem-5 air-to-ground bombs. This support is critical for Russia’s operations at Alabuga and its broader military efforts.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer legitimate, misrepresenting and misinterpreting the Ukrainian Constitution. Putin argued that while Ukrainian law on martial law stops presidential elections, it doesn’t extend the president’s powers, suggesting authority should transfer to the speaker of the parliament. The Constitution states that the Verkhovna Rada’s term extends during martial law, which also prohibits presidential elections. Article 111 addresses impeachment, not power transfer, while Article 112 details presidential duties transfer only in cases of resignation, health issues, impeachment, or death. Ukrainian Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk rebutted Putin’s claims, affirming that Zelensky remains in office until martial law ends. The Verkhovna Rada cannot lift martial law; only the president can, when the threat to Ukraine’s independence is eliminated.
Ukrainian Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk refuted Putin’s misinterpretation of Ukrainian law, stating that President Zelensky remains in office until martial law ends. Stefanchuk cited Article 108, which confirms the president’s powers until a new president takes office. He advised against selective reading of the Constitution. Putin acknowledged the need for further analysis of the issue during his remarks in Tashkent.
Russian claims that President Zelensky is no longer legitimate are part of a Kremlin information operation targeting foreign audiences. Putin repeated these false claims during a press conference in Minsk on May 24, and Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov echoed them in a Newsweek interview on May 25. Putin misrepresented Ukrainian law using complex legal language to appear authoritative. However, the Ukrainian Constitution clearly states that Zelensky remains in office until martial law ends. The Kremlin’s narrative aims to mislead foreign listeners, particularly in Western countries. Reuters misrepresented Putin’s comments and failed to highlight the errors in his claims. They stated that “Zelensky has not faced an election despite the expiry of his term,” without explaining that Ukrainian law extends Zelensky’s term during martial law and prohibits elections during the ongoing war with Russia. The Ukrainian Constitution clearly states Zelensky remains president until his successor takes office.
The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported that Russia is likely to spread false information about a new front in Belarus, Zelensky’s legitimacy, and Ukrainian mobilization to demoralize Ukrainian society.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org