Belarus Contemplating War with Ukraine – Day 135 (July 8, 2022)

UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
MLRS – Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

Summary of the Events

Neither side made any progress on the ground on Friday. UAF continue to attack RF weapon depots while RF continue to terrorize civilians by shelling residential regions.

Belarus

Belarus has extended the closing of the skies along the Ukrainian border to commercial aircraft for another three months which signals that the threat of missile attack will remain. Russian special services are meeting with Belarussian military commanders trying to convince Belarus to declare on Ukraine. Belarus threatened to attack Poland if Western countries become involved on the ground in Ukraine. Belarus also extended their military exercises on the border with Ukraine another week. Russia invaded Ukraine when it extended their military exercises in February.

Battle for the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk)

RF attacked UAF as well as residential buildings at more than 30 locations on Friday resulting in the death of six civilians but was unable to gain any ground.

Target Siversk – Based on what is happening on the ground, Siversk will be the next main target for RF to capture. RF made limited progress in fighting around the village of Verkhnokamyanka. Another RF move against Bohorodychne was repelled with heavy losses to RF.

Target Kramatorsk/Slovyansk – RF conducted an air strike against Kramatorsk hitting a hotel and several homes. At least one civilian was killed and several more injured.

Expansion from Donetsk – With US-made HIMARS rocket artillery systems, UAF was able to destroy another two weapon depots in Donetsk and Shakhtarsk. It brings to five the number of confirmed weapon depots UAF have destroyed over the last two days as the US systems have finally reached the front line.

Other News

Russia is forcing Ukrainian residents still in occupied Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to join the RF. They are tricked by being told they can return to work, and when they arrive, they are conscripted into the Russian army.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had announced last Tuesday that men of fighting age (18-60) would be restricted from traveling outside of their community of residence without permission from the military. President Zelensky insisted that the order be cancelled the next day and was furious it was made without his knowledge. A draft law has now been introduced in Parliament guaranteeing the freedom of movement for all Ukrainian citizens even when under martial law.

The alliance against Russia is starting to crack as war fatigue begins to settle into Western countries. Donations to our ministry to IDPs has dropped 95% this last month. But even more concerning is Germany is putting pressure on Canada to return Russian gas turbines that were being repaired before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Canada is one of three countries that has passed laws confiscating Russian assets and turning them over to Ukraine to fund the war effort. Russia has cut back its oil imports to Germany claiming they have done so because Canada is withholding the gas turbines resulting in Russia producing less fuel.

Ukrainian volunteer battalions are once again on the frontline and fighting against the Russian invaders as they had when Russia invaded back in 2014. This will greatly bolster the fighting force on the front line.

International Support

The G20 nations met on Friday with Russian participation. Host Indonesia refused to disinvite Russia and for the first time, Western leaders sat at the same table with Russian leaders and shared their outrage at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken refused to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. The meeting was overshadowed by the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. For the first time, a “family” photo was not taken at the end of the conference as no one wanted to be in a photo shoot with Sergei Lavrov who stormed out of the talks after facing much heavy verbal attacks.

The EU sent €977,000 worth of equipment to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine including helmets, bulletproof vests, diesel generators, cameras, etc.

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