UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
MLRS – Multiple Launch Rocket Systems
Summary of the Events
UAF have begun cleanup operations in Lyman and the surrounding area recently liberated as the Russian command begins to turn on each other over the strategic and psychological loss of most of Northern Donetsk region.
Battle for the Donbas
After RF retreated from the strategic hub city of Lyman, UAF have moved in and are cleaning up the settlement of Russian collaborators. The capture of Lyman was significant for many reasons, the foremost being its psychological impact as the first annexed territory liberated from Russia. This is creating a further split in the Russian command structure as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of Putin’s private Wagner army, have criticized the Russian army command under Colonel General Alexander Lapin. Kadyrov has called on Russia to being using tactical nuclear weapons to stop the advances of the UAF.
The fall of Lyman also portends more Russian annexed territories in the north will be liberated as Putin refused to reinforce the stronghold as he is focusing on defending southern territories and his land bridge to Crimea. The northern regions are just icing on the cake for Putin, he must maintain control of the southern regions.
The liberation of Lyman also has strategic significance as it was a key crossing point over the Siversky Donets River. Once taken, UAF have already moved father east regaining most of the northern regions of Donetsk and are now ready to threaten a liberation of Luhansk region.
RF continue their ground attacks around Bakhmut and Avdiivka without any success.
Battle for Kherson
RF have made a priority of defending their occupied territories in Kherson as it is necessary to secure a land bridge to Crimea and to stage a future capture of Odesa to control all the Black Sea and create a land bridge to the Russian-occupied territory within Moldova. UAF are continuing their counteroffensive in the region, but under a cloud of secrecy, so very little is known. But without battle tanks, it will be a slow and arduous process to liberate the Kherson region.
Other Regions
Kharkiv – Russia sent a signal that they still plan on taking more territory from Ukraine by staging an assault on Kozacha Lapin on Sunday which is north of Kharkiv. UAF repelled the attack.
A second civilian convoy was attacked by machine gun fire near Kupyansk. 24 civilians were killed in the attack, including 13 children. This is added to the loss of 30 civilians and one police officer who were killed in another convoy near Zaporizhia on Friday.
Other News
Ukraine condemned the Russian annexation of their occupied territories and refused to recognize the action. Despite Russian threats of using tactical nuclear weapons to secure their newly annexed regions, Ukraine has vowed to press on and liberate the occupied territories which represent 20% of their sovereign lands. In response to this aggressive move to annex their territory, Ukraine has officially requested to join NATO under an expedited procedure and an increase in military, financial, and humanitarian assistance from partner nations. They also called on their partners to increase sanctions against Russia and to declare Russia a terrorist state. President Zelensky also vowed he would never sit down and negotiate with Russia if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia.
Russia has begun the process of transferring operational control of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to the Russian company Rosatom. Ihor Murashov, the Ukrainian director of the ZNPP, was detained at gunpoint as he was leaving the plant on Sunday. He was blindfolded and driven to an unknown location. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi immediately condemned the action and announced he would make a trip to Kyiv and Moscow for talks as the move is destabilizing for the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. So far Russia has said the detention is only temporary.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Kyrylo Budanov said that the war with Russia will end soon, and that Ukraine will retake all its territory back. He clarified that he was not saying the war will end in weeks, but over months. He shared that Ukraine plans to continue liberating territory through the winter, but that the end of the conflict will begin in the Spring of 2023 with the liberation of Crimea commencing by the end of Spring 2023 or early Summer 2023.
The long lines of trucks at the Ukrainian borders with Europe are soon going to be a thing of the past as the Convention on Common Transit has come into effect as of Sunday. Trucks were stuck at the border for up to three days as the arduous and bureaucratic procedures of transporting goods out of Ukraine and into Europe were creating backlogs, especially as trucks were becoming the main way to transport food shipments to Europe. Now a single transit document is all that is required. This will bring Ukraine a little closer to Europe.
The National Republican Army, a Russian hacker group whose goal is the overthrow of Putin’s regime, has hacked into Unisoftware, a Russian software development company that develops web applications, desktop systems, cloud, and API solutions. The hackers have stolen copies of bank accounts and sensitive employee information and is demanding ransom from the company. Customer records include those from the Federal Tax Service, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, and the Central Bank of Russia.
International Support
German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Saturday, her first since the Russian invasion commenced on February 24. Ukraine is urging Germany to supply them with battle tanks, but as no other NATO country has made that commitment, Germany reiterated that they do not want to be the only country to do so. Lambrecht did assure Ukraine that Germany is behind them in the conflict and condemned the recent Russian annexation of Ukrainian occupied territories.
The Latvian New Unity Party, led by Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karin, is leading in the polls currently receiving 22.5% of the vote. The New Unity Party has been very supportive of Ukraine and has made that support the heart of their campaign. They are very likely set to lead the next government as well. Only one pro-Russian party is expected to pass the 5% threshold to receive seats in parliament, and this party has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine but has not yet called for war crime investigations against Russia.
The Presidents of nine NATO countries – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia – have condemned Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian occupied territories and called for NATO to increase its military support of Ukraine. Hungary was notably absent as the only NATO country bordering Ukraine that continues to support Russia in this conflict.
Canada announced they are creating a task force with Ukrainian officials to begin rebuilding the damaged railway system in Ukraine. Six thousand kilometers of railway tracks has been wrecked, along with fifty bridges and dozens of railroad stations.