UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
The race between UAF capturing Kreminna and RF capturing Bakhmut is becoming more intense. Who will reach their next objective first? RF are nearing four miles from Bakhmut and UAF may be only three miles from Kreminna. It seems that Ukraine will soon start another counter-offensive to retake all occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblast.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Both sides are making claims which have not been corroborated yet. Ukraine claims that RF have been building up defenses of Svatove and Kreminna so that they can return on the offensive and begin to regain territory lost during the UAF counter-offensive. Russia claims to have already retaken Novoselivske, but Ukraine denies that has happened. Both sides agree that UAF continues to push through towards Kreminna around Chervonopopivka. A Russian drone caught footage of UAF already in Zhytlivka which is less than three miles north of Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF are getting closer to their primary goal in capturing Bakhmut. Satellite pictures have shown UAF retreating from Opytne, the last city RF must take along the T0513 Highway connecting Russian-occupied Horlivka with Bakhmut. RF have claimed to have taken Klishchivka and Zelenopillya which has not yet been confirmed. But satellite images show RF have taken the eastern half of Kurdyumivka and have entered Ozerianivka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF continue to build their defenses on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. UAF are preparing for their counter-offensive in retaking Russian-occupied locations in Southern Zaporizhia. UAF conducted heavy shelling on RF concentrations all along the defense line from Mykhailivka to Kins’ki Rozdory as well as deeper into Tokmak, Myrne, and Yasne. RF are withdrawing some of their troops in Mykhailivka, Polohy, and Inzhenerne. Either Russia has determined that they cannot hold this line and are preparing to move back to more defensible positions, or they are simply rotating troops. Polohy is vital for Russia to stop UAF from marching on Tokmak, and a withdrawal from Mykhailivka would signal that Russia would also abandon Enerhodar giving Ukraine back the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant. RF in Crimea are also moving north in anticipation of this coming counter-offensive. UAF are also continuing their operation to retake the Kinburn Spit so they can attack RF from the south as well.
Other News
Evidence continues to mount that Russia has not ended its mobilization as they claim. Government officials in the Orenburg Oblast allocated $16,000 to open a mobilization hotline from December 15, 2022, to January 31, 2023. If mobilization has ended, why the need for a hotline? One Russian soldier received an order that she is required to work “until the end of mobilization” suggesting it is still ongoing. The Russian Ministry of Defense made a statement in opposition to a bill before the Russian Duma giving a draft exemption to those with doctorate degrees. If the mobilization has ended, what would be the need for this deferment. And workers at a sugar factory in Chelyabinsk received mobilization summonses last Wednesday.