UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
Progress has been slow on both sides due to muddy ground. But over the next few days the ground will freeze, and the ground attacks will intensify. Despite the muddy conditions, RF have made some progress towards Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and UAF have made some progress towards Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
UAF had some success in their campaign to liberate Kreminna. UAF have made advances in the forests south of Kreminna and have reached the outskirts of Chervonopopivka to the northwest. The battle for Svatove was at a standstill, but soon the ground will freeze allowing UAF to resume their offensive. Satellite images have confirmed that RF have reached Novoselivske, and the community is again under contest.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
UAF have admitted that the situation around Bakhmut is harsh as RF continue to push closer and closer. Ukraine has shifted some of its forces from the Zaporizhia Defense Line to bolster their forces in Bakhmut, which proves that Russian claims to have taken control over all roads into Bakhmut is not true. Satellite images have confirmed that RF are fighting in Ozerianivka.
RF claim they have made some progress towards Avdiivka as well, even claiming to have reached the outskirts of Pervomaiskyi (some sources even claiming RF are entrenched in the settlement itself). This has not yet been confirmed.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
UAF shelling of areas far behind the defense line is making it difficult for Russia to properly allocate and deploy their troops in Southern Ukraine. UAF struck RF near Terpinna and Yakymivka injuring and killing dozens of RF and destroying 130 pieces of military equipment. UAF also shelled RF on the defensive line near Polohy putting more pressure on them to withdraw.
RF continue to pull back from eastern Kherson to defensive positions in southern Zaporizhia. They also continue to shell regions along the western bank of the Dnipro River. RF continue their daily shelling of Hulyaipole as well as targets in Zaporizhia city, Dnipro city, Nikopol, and Marhanets. RF also shelled Ochakiv just north of the Kinburn Spit.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Putin stated that Western support of Ukraine was only dragging out the situation in which Ukraine rejects peace talks with Russia. He suggested that Germany stop sending support to Ukraine to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. Scholz responded that any diplomatic solution would have to include the withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. US President Joe Biden had said the same the day before in a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron and the Kremlin responded that under those conditions, no peace could be made by diplomacy.
Russia has opened the door to negotiate their withdrawal from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) suggesting they would be willing to do that if Ukraine would guarantee the continued flow of gas to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine territory. This is another clue that Russia may be planning on a strategic withdrawal from areas in Zaporizhia to strengthen their position to the south to hold onto their land bridge to Crimea. Or it could just be a ploy to take over the nuclear power plant by later claiming Ukraine violated the agreement and moving their forces back into the ZNPP this time with support from those nations that believe the lie.