UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF have been beaten to a standstill in Donetsk Oblast, and UAF continue to move towards Kreminna on three sides.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
RF are increasing and forming in a way that suggests an offensive operation is in the making. This is supported by a new Russian commander over the Eastern RF.
Kreminna – UAF continue their advance on Kreminna from the north, west, and south. Russia is evacuating military command and Russian civilian workers from Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF have culminated, at least for the moment, in their fight for the Donbas. They are no longer able to effectively fight and gain territory and are more and more taking a defensive posture. It does not mean that they no longer conduct offensive operations, but they are limited and ineffectual. There are three signs that this is now true:
- Senior Ukrainian officials are visiting the frontline positions unimpeded. President Zelensky visited Bakhmut on December 20, and Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate chief Kyrylo Budanov visited over the last two days geolocated only 600 meters (2000 feet) from frontline Russian troops.
- Russian troops are no longer fighting in companies or battalions, but in squads of 10-15 soldiers. Footage was released on Monday show UAF attacking squads of RF attempting a disorderly assault on Novoselivske.
- Russian airborne units are augmenting frontline RF which shows a lack of military personnel to cover all the holes on the frontline.
Soledar – RS have claimed that RF took Bakhmutske on Tuesday and entered Soledar and Pidhorodne on Wednesday. But UAS deny those accounts and claim that UAF are holding their line and repulsing all RF assaults. Who to believe?
Bakhmut – RS claim that RF have entered Bakhmut and are already involved in street fighting. UAS deny this and claimed that they pushed RF back to the industrial outskirts of Bakhmut. Who to believe?
Avdiivka – RS have claimed that RF have entered the outskirts of Pervomaiskyi, but this is denied by UAS. Who to believe?
Based on the above information showing RF having culminated in their attack, the most likely side to believe are UAS. RF are being beaten back and they need to create false information for the public back home.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Yesterday I reported that a possible offensive operation in Zaporizhia was in the making, but further analysis suggests that it is simply a troop rotation as there are no signs of Russian strike forces forming in the region. UAF are planning an offensive operation but have said the ground is yet too muddy.
UAF continue to strike concentrations of RF in the rear areas. They struck RF positions in Chaplynka and destroyed an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system and wounded 150 Russian personnel in another unspecified location.
Belarus
A video of Russian and Belarussian soldiers training together was released on Tuesday. And the Belarusian military commander in Minsk used rhetoric that troops were preparing to shift from peacetime to wartime. But as there is no evidence of Russian strike forces forming in Belarus, the chance of a Russian-Belarussian invasion of Ukraine from the north is still considered low.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation
The Kremlin approved an additional $467 million for the development of defensive fortifications along the border with Ukraine and in the occupied territories. They are hiring janitors and sanitation workers in Moscow offering a one-time payment of $700 and $14 a day to dig defense trenches in the occupied territories.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation providing free social services to disabled individuals who participated in combat operations. They are also offering free storage of sperm from active soldiers to preserve their genetic heritage.
Signs of low morale continue. One Russian soldier was arrested for beating his commanding officer to death in Chelyabinsk Oblast. And another serviceman was found having committed suicide by hanging in Saratov Oblast.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities have implemented a 24-hour curfew in the occupied region of Zaporizhia. Roadblocks within Melitopol and Vasylivka have been installed until January 15 to stop all motor traffic in and out of the cities.
Ukrainian citizens in occupied Luhansk Oblast are being forced to receive Russian passports to receive any social benefits for them or their children. And citizens are being forced to convert their Ukrainian hryvna notes to Russian rubles at half the value.