UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Russian attacks continue to fall in number as more evidence that the Russian invasion has culminated.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
The Russian Ministry of Defense is blaming individual soldiers use of their cell phones for the attack on Makiyivka that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Russian soldiers on New Year’s Eve. But that is just deflection on their incompetency in packing hundreds of Russian soldiers into nontactical positions within range of enemy artillery and near an ammunition depot. Donetsk People’s Republic Head Denis Pushilin remarked that some of the officers of the targeted regiment were recently mobilized servicemen with no experience in leading troops.
RF unsuccessfully conducted at least four major assaults against UAF in Eastern Ukraine attempting to move towards Stelmakhivka, Ploshchanka, Makiyivka, and Bilohorivka. UAF conducted defensive maneuvers around Kuzemivka. Fierce fighting is reported in the direction of Lysychansk.
According to Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai, RF must now deliver ammunition for the defense of Svatove from farther away Luhansk city as UAF have destroyed all weapon depots near Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – UAS claimed that they repelled RF attacks against Soledar, but RS claim they captured three defensive positions south of Soledar and the Deksonska railway station on the outskirts of Soledar. Russian claims are contradicted by video footage of Ukrainian journalists traveling into Soledar with no concerns. RF need to take Soledar to reach the T0513 and cut off supply to Bakhmut from the north. Russia had set the goal of capturing Soledar by December 26 which has come and gone.
Bakhmut – RF continue their focus on taking Bakhmut, but UAF have a defensive line every 30 feet making it nearly impossible for RF to reach this goal. UAF repelled nine assaults and conducted 22 clashes with RF all around Bakhmut to the north, east, and south. RF fired 238 artillery, rocket, and tank strikes on Wednesday. RS claim that Wagner Group forces broke through Ukrainian defense lines near Opytne and have advanced towards Pidhorodne, but these claims have not been verified.
Avdiivka – RF conducted four assaults around Avdiivka, all of them repelled.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
All was quiet on the Western Front in Donetsk Oblast for the second day in a row. RS claimed they repelled an assault by UAF near Dorozhnianka.
RF continue to dig in their defenses in the Southern Ukraine theater. RF continue their operations in taking the islands in the Dnipro River, whereas UAF are focused on gaining a beachhead on the eastern shore of the Dnipro River. Ukraine does not see the advantage of expending resources on taking the islands as any force defending the islands would be shelled by RF. Likewise, Ukraine is not worried about RF establishing themselves on the islands as it would make them easy targets. RF continue to shell Nova Kakhovka which they control in order to intimidate the Ukrainian civilians to evacuate the area.
UAF continue to shell regions in the rear. On Wednesday they struck Russian military equipment and troop concentrations around Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Polohy, and Vasylivka. They hit a command post in killing or injuring 260 Russian soldiers and destroying ten pieces of military equipment. RS claim that UAF targeted a military hospital in Tokmak and instead of a command post, hit a residential building. But neither of those claims have been confirmed.
RS admitted that air defense systems were activated at Belbek Air Base near Sevastopol, Crimea and claimed to have shot down two Ukrainian military drones. Explosions at the base were reported.
Russia continues to move troops stationed in Crimea into the defense of Southern Ukraine which Russia needs to maintain a land corridor to Crimea. But the land corridor is not safe for travel thanks to Western weapons supplied to Ukraine.
RF shelled targets in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Mykolaiv oblasts on Wednesday.
Belarus
A social media report of a notice at the Barysau bus station in Minsk is circulating calling on all men 18 to 60 to report to a military enlistment office. But there is no evidence of troop buildup on the Ukrainian border.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
RF forcibly removed 30 Ukrainian residents near Bakhmut to filtration camps in Rostov, Russia under the excuse of protecting them from harm. RF have also blocked the entrance to and exit from Tytarivka and have arrested dozens of local civilians under charges of partisan activity. RF now require Ukrainians to receive special passes to move between communities in occupied territories.
Russian officials are gathering information of entrepreneurial activities of Ukrainian civilians in occupied regions, seizing their personal property, and forcing them to re-register their property under Russian legislation. Russia will nationalize any property not registered as such.
Russian occupation authorities have waived age requirements and psychological evaluations to attract residents in occupied territories to enlist in the Russian army.
A neurological hospital in Luhansk Oblast has been taken over by the Wagner Group to treat their injured troops.
Other News
The Russian Ministry of Defense has begun reporting strikes against UAF at twice the level as before suggesting that they are giving false information to shift focus away from the huge losses incurred by RF.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with ABC News that Ukraine will continue their limited counteroffensives throughout the winter and then launch a major counteroffensive in March to retake territory as far as Donetsk and Crimea.
Russia has launched a total of 660 Iranian military drones against Ukraine since September with 540 of them being intercepted before reaching their targets. But they can still do damage as their warheads are often still active and explode when the drone hits the ground. Russia has a contract for 1750 drones to be supplied by Iran. In exchange, Russia is supplying Iran with 24 Sukhoi-Su-35 fighter jets. At the rate Russia is launching drones against Ukraine, they will run out of drones by May 2023 and will be in need of even more.