UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
The slugfest continues with no meaningful change on the ground. Russia orders a unilateral ceasefire to observe Orthodox Christmas.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Most of the fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line was positional in nature and that control of terrain did not change. The hottest point of the battle is around Chervonopopivka with is only four miles north of Kreminna. But from this position, UAF are within shelling range of the R-66 (Svatove-Kreminna) highway which makes it unusable to RF. RF are focusing on pushing UAF out of artillery range. The other three points that RF are attacking are to the north of Svatove at Stelmakhivka, in the center at Ploshchanka and Makiyivka, and to the south of Kreminna at Bilohorivka. UAF repelled all attacks on Thursday. Wagner Troops are being mobilized to Kreminna as Russia fears it will fall soon otherwise.
UAF regularly conduct night raids on Kuzemivka to exhaust RF in the area and are trying to push towards Kreminna from Chervonopopivka.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The eastern outskirts of Bakhmut is the bloodiest battlefield as Russia continues its main objective in taking the city. Ukraine claims that they pushed RF back 1000 feet, but that was denied by RF. RS claim they made advancements in the fight for Bakhmut. RF made nine concerted assaults in the region, all of which were repelled according to UAS. RS claim they made some progress near Opytne and Kurdyumivka, which is supported by satellite images. RF were spotted north of Kurdyumivka suggesting that UAF have retreated from the town. Regardless of who you believe, the region has become a meatgrinder with both sides experiencing heavy casualties.
Fighting is also heavy on the western outskirts of Donetsk city. RF continue their unsuccessful assaults to push UAF out of artillery range of the capital city. Fighting continues in the city of Marinka as well. Satellite images show that UAF struck a base of Chechen fighters in Marinka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Fighting has stopped for the third day in a row along the Western Donetsk line.
RF are arriving around Henichesk to bolster their defense. RF are mostly defending their positions with small units conducting reconnaissance and sabotage missions, most among the islands of the Dnipro River that divides UAF from RF.
It has been confirmed that RF have captured Dorozhnianka and are trying to expand their control in the area. A weakness was probably discovered by a Russian reconnaissance group and RF exploited the weakness to force Ukraine to mobilize troops from the defense of Bakhmut to reinforce this hole.
UAF continue to attack RF in the rear areas of Southern Ukraine to soften up the region for a counterattack which is expected to begin in March. A Russian missile warehouse was struck in Radensk which was in range of UAF artillery. Air defense systems were activated over Melitopol. The UAF attack on a hospital in Tokmak was confirmed, but Ukraine claims it had been taken over by RF and used as barracks making it a legitimate target.
RF continue to fire rockets against areas in Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Belarus
Belarus announced on Thursday that they will continue deploying RF to Belarus to conduct joint exercises and are also setting up a false flag operation claiming that UAF are aiming weapons at their Poddobryanka checkpoint. The US Pentagon reported that there is no indication that an invasion from Belarus is being planned and that no strike force has yet formed.
Russian Mobilization
Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia plans on closing its borders in the next few days to prevent Russian men from fleeing the country when a second mobilization is initiated around January 15. That is also the day that all travel in and out of occupied territories has been halted to recruit fighters in the occupied territories. With the huge losses RF have been experiencing, a second mobilization is required to keep the fight going.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
As mentioned above, all travel between cities in the occupied territories has been halted until January 15.
Russia has reduced the number of days to receive a Russian passport in the occupied territories from 30 days to 10 days. Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories are being forced to accept Russian passports.
President Putin also signed a law making it easier for Ukrainian collaborators to join the RF by eliminating the requirement for a psychological evaluation and allowing the medical exam to be done in absentia (in other words, they do not have to be there for the medical exam).
RF are commandeering the hangers of farmers in occupied regions to be used as barracks. And hospitals also continue to be commandeered for use by RF only.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a unilateral 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas (January 7). This is only an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation among the Russian Orthodox people. It takes days to organize a ceasefire and if Putin was serious, he would have ordered it several days ago. Putin has framed this war as a holy war among the Russian people which is why they are in support of Putin. He has no intention of honoring a ceasefire, and he knows that Ukraine will not. But Putin can show the Russian people that Ukraine has no respect for the religion and justify the continuation of the war. Even President Joe Biden called the ceasefire declaration hypocrisy as Putin did not respect the Ukrainian people who celebrated Christmas on December 25 with a ceasefire then. And if Ukraine falls for the ceasefire, it will take away their initiative and allow Russia to regroup and build defenses.
The pro-war Russian milbloggers almost unanimously criticized Putin for making such a declaration. The fact that Putin has been cozying up to these milbloggers and even appointed them to positions of power, shows that Putin is not serious either about negotiating a peace with Ukraine. Putin made it clear to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday that Russia will only discuss peace with Ukraine, if Ukraine first recognizes the new “realities” of Russia taking their territories.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin held a news event where he pardoned the first two dozen former prisoners who joined his private army as he promised them if they joined his forces. The big question is whether the Russian government recognizes these pardons as only Putin has the power to pardon criminals. Either Prigozhin assumed power that only Putin has, or Putin honored Prigozhin by issuing the pardons. Which is the case we do not know. But Prigozhin needed to issue these pardons as 80% of his private army are former prisoners which have had huge losses on the battlefield and Prigozhin needs to recruit more. By showing that the pardons are “real”, it will help him recruit other criminals in prison.