UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF have taken the Sil railroad station in northeast Soledar and may have even taken the whole district thus placing all Soledar under Russian occupation. There is also evidence that RF have made marginal advances towards Bakhmut from Opytne to the south reaching the garbage dumps on the outskirts. RF are building up their troop strength in Southern Ukraine as well as improving their supply routes.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
There were no confirmed changes on the ground in this theater.
Kupyansk – RS reported no significant changes on this front. UAS reported that the Russian 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Guards Tank Division is down to 10 tanks from its original 30, and only 30 personnel are still in the regiment.
Svatove – RS claimed that RF recaptured the city of Novoselivske (9 miles NW).
Kreminna – UAS claimed that UAF have moved closer to Kreminna and have reached the eastern outskirts. UAS reported that UAF repelled assaults by RF against Makiyivka (14 miles NW) and Bilohorivka (8 miles S). RS claimed that RF made an assault on Chervonopopivka (5 miles NW) and repelled a UAF assault near Dibrova (6 miles W).
UAS reported a Russian S-300 missile failed to launch and damaged a residential building in occupied Novopskov.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Soledar – The Kremlin continues to argue against Wagner Group claims that they were solely responsible for the capture of Soledar. Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation on Sunday about the fall of Soledar and gave the Russian Ministry of Defense full credit without even mentioning the Wagner Group. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov went even as far as to implicitly accuse Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the commander of the private Wagner Group army, is manipulating the story to undermine the role of the Ministry of Defense. In an interview afterwards, Prigozhin avoided controversy by avoiding disproving Putin’s or Peskov’s comments. But Prigozhin did present medals to only Wagner Group fighters involved in the fight for Soledar.
It has been confirmed that Wagner Group forces have taken the Sil railroad station in which is in the northwestern region of Soledar. RS claim that RF have taken all Sil district, but UAS claim that UAF repelled attacks on Sil and are still contesting the district. UAS also reported repelling RF assaults on Krasnopolivka just north of the Sil district of Soledar which suggests they did pull out of the Sil district. RS claimed that RF pushed farther west from Berestove and captured a UAF stronghold.
Bakhmut – RF are changing their tactic of attacking the well-defended city of Bakhmut head on and instead are attacking positions to the north and south to encircle the city. RS reported an assault on Klishchiivka (5.5 miles S). The goal is to reach the T0504 Highway to cut off supplies from that route into Bakhmut. RF are far from reaching that goal.
UAS reported that UAF repelled all attacks against Bakhmut and Klishchiivka, and added they also repelled an attack on Mayorsk. But geolocated footage from Sunday indicates that RF did make marginal advances into Bakhmut from Opytne reaching the garbage dump. RF claim they have reached as far as Malyi Troitskyi Lane in Bakhmut.
Avdiivka – Heavy fighting continues in Marinka, but both sides agree that UAF continue to repel RF assaults. UAS also claim they have repelled assaults against Krasnohorivka, Novobakhmutivka, Pobieda, and Vodiane.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
UAS reported that RF are building up their forces along the east bank of the Dnipro River and that Wagner Group forces have now arrived in Kherson Oblast as well. RF continue shelling communities along the western bank of the Dnipro River including Kherson city itself.
RS claim that Russia shot down ten Ukrainian drones over the weekend in the skies above Sevastopol and there is no evidence that any hit their targets.
RS claimed that Russia is building a superhighway to connect Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk Oblasts with Crimea and Rostov-on-Don (Russia). RS also claimed that Russia has finished restoring the Henichesk-Arabat Spit bridge.
RS claimed they struck an industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhia city with S-300 missiles on Monday. RS also reported that Ukraine struck Berdyansk with rockets on Sunday.
Belarus
RF have strengthened their aviation groups in Belarus under the guise of joint exercises. But the fact that there is no evidence of a Russian strike force forming in Belarus, the chances of an invasion from Belarus is still considered unlikely.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Several RS reported about a senior sergeant serving at a training station in Belgorod Oblast (Russia) accidentally detonated a hand grenade while showing it off to his troops. The explosion also ignited a nearby ammunition storage site killing three soldiers and injuring 16. Another 8 soldiers are missing, perhaps taking advantage of the incident, and fleeing.
Another RS reported on a senior officer gave an order to soldiers under his command to shave according to protocol. The soldiers ignored the order and swore back at the officer suffering no disciplinary action.
Video footage published by Russian mobilized men from the Republic of Bashkortostan show them complaining of being sent to the frontlines with training, radios, or fuel resulting in half of their personnel killed in the first ten days.
Residents of Izhevsk, Russia have published a petition against turning a local shopping mall into a drone production site claiming it would make their residential region a military target.
Russian arsons committed an arson attack against relay cabinets installed on the highway near Buryatia to limit the transit of military supplies.
Wagner Group deserter Andrey Medvedev, who had commanded the detachment that beheaded another deserter with a sledgehammer, has “escaped” to Norway and published several atrocities committed by Wagner Group forces. His escape may have been orchestrated by the Russian government to diminish the reputation of the Wagner Group.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian forces seized a civilian medical facility in occupied Kakhovka using it for military purposes. And the only hospital in Mariupol has also been reserved for Russian military with all civilians being turned away.
Russia is seizing arable farmland from Ukrainian civilians and gifting it to veterans who fought against Ukraine.
Russia has increased its budget to accommodate deported Ukrainians within Russia. Five Ukrainian citizens were forcibly deported from Shelky on Sunday to an unknown location. Footage was released from courts in occupied areas of Ukrainian citizens receiving sentences of deportation.
The cities of Rubizhne and Lysychansk have had all their exit and entry points shut down only allowing people with permission to pass through.
An order to remove all medical equipment from communities along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River deeper into occupied territory was leaked.
Russian mobile service now covers all the occupied territories. Occupation police are seizing all phones that still have Ukrainian mobile service installed.
Other News
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was the latest of world leaders to feel that Russia is preparing for another large offensive in the Spring. Putin desperately needs a big win if he is to remain in power and continue his goal of taking all of Ukraine. Stoltenberg called on the Western powers to increase their aid to Ukraine and to begin supplying heavy offensive weapons as it is imperative that Ukraine wins this war. He rebuffed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s concern that it might lead to a nuclear war by noting that even Russia’s big ally, China, has conveyed to Russia that nuclear weapons must not be used.
International Support
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called the Russian attack on a residential building in Dnipro killing dozens of people last Saturday was a war crime. Russia claimed that they did not target the building, but that a Ukrainian air defense missile struck the building. Russia went on to say that “Russia never attacks residential buildings” which is a lie as they have been shelling civilian building every day of this war. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took it a step farther and called for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian leaders.