UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
Another large-scale missile and drone strike was launched by Russia against Ukraine on Thursday with all drones and 85% of missiles shot down. After a lull to wait on reinforcements, UAF have restarted their offensive drive towards Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Kreminna – The heaviest fighting in the area continues to be over the strategic city of Kreminna which controls the supply lines through the rest of northern Luhansk. RS claimed that after days of being on the defensive, UAF finally launched a renewed attack towards Kreminna starting late Wednesday night but were repelled. And then on Thursday morning UAF re-initiated from the direction of Torske (8.5 miles W). RS released geolocated combat footage as evidence of their pushing back UAF, but the same video had been posted two weeks earlier. So, we can deduce that the offensive has resumed after UAF halted to wait for reinforcements, but Ukraine is all silent on their progress other to say that they repelled a RF assault on Chervonopopivka on Thursday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage indicates that Wagner Group forces have made incremental advances from Opytne into the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut since Wednesday. But at great loss as determined by the intercepted conversations of Russian soldiers. A complete battalion of Russian soldiers was wiped out alone on Wednesday. UAS claimed they repelled assaults against Bakhmut itself. Towards the northeast, RF assaults on Verkhnokamyanske, Blahodatne, Spirne, and Rozdolivka were repelled. And RF fighting near Klishchiivka towards Ivanivske were also repelled according to UAS.
Marinka – UAS reported that they repelled attacks by RF on Marinka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Western Donetsk – RS claim that the Donetsk People’s Republic Army took control of Vodiane, but that has not been confirmed. Heavy fighting has broken out over control of Vuhledar and possibly Pavlivka. These attacks are most likely false offensives meant to withdraw UAF from Eastern Ukraine as Russia plans for a counter-offensive in that region.
Southern Zaporizhia – RF are also conducting what is being considered as false offensives as the number of Russian troops are not at a scale for a true offensive. Most of the attacks are done by 10-person squads.
Eastern Kherson – RS claim that UAF continue to attempt to land small reconnaissance units on the eastern shore of the Dnipro River.
Belarus
Russia and Belarus continue to hold joint air exercises over Belarus territory but there is still no evidence of a strike force being formed to invade Ukraine from Belarus.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Ukrainian intelligence continues to report that Russia is preparing for a second mobilization. They noted that occupation officials in Crimea are actively building a list of fighting age men. If a second mobilization is launched, it will surely be at a much smaller level and done discreetly as not to create panic in Russia. But there are reports of Ukrainian citizens in occupied territory of being forcibly mobilized. If true, this would be a war crime.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Churches of the Evangelical Baptist Union are being nationalized and closed in occupied territories as Russia establishes the Russian Orthodox Church as the dominant faith in the region. The Baptist church in Melitopol has been seized and their members enduring extreme persecution. The church was raided during their worship meeting and both pastors were arrested. Two Baptist churches in Berdyansk were also closed as well as a church in Chkalove.
A Russian government decree provides for the opening of 27 penal colonies in the occupied territories – 13 in Donetsk, 7 in Luhansk, 3 in Kherson, and 3 in Zaporizhia. These penal colonies will be used to expand control over the occupation zones by threatening imprisonment in one of these penal colonies.
Russia must endear itself to the teachers in occupied Ukraine to cooperate in their reeducation of Ukrainian children into the Russian culture. Towards this end, a bill was passed to recognize their degrees as valid throughout Russia and even exempts teachers from recertification requirements until September 2024.
Other News
Russia launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on Thursday (my daughter spent the entire school day in the bomb shelter). 55 missiles were fired against Ukrainian targets with 47 of them being shot down by air defense systems. 24 military drones were also launched but were shot down before hitting targets. Keep in mind that missiles and drones shot down still cause damage where they eventually do fall, just not on the intended targets. Critical infrastructure was hit in Vinnytsia and Odesa Oblasts. One missile hit a residential building in Kyiv killing one man and injuring two others.
International Support
The United States added 16 entities that support the Wagner Group’s military operations to the sanction list. This includes entities in Russia, China, the Central African Republic, and the United Arab Emirates.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.