UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF are making advances in Donetsk Oblast. Mykilske south of Vuhledar was captured and Vuhledar is now under attack. RF are making advances in Bakhmut and have captured two more communities near Soledar, one to the north and one to the south. RF have also entered Vodiane, Pisky, and maybe even Paraskoviivka.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
A RS claimed that RF conducted a reconnaissance operation in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on Friday. Supposedly they made it 1500 feet behind the lines near Ternova.
Kreminna – Russian military leaders claim that the most challenging segment of the frontline for them is the defense of Kreminna. UAS claim that RF made unsuccessful assaults against Ploshchanka (10 miles NW), Nevske (11 miles NW), and Chervonopopivka (3.5 miles N).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Based on geolocated footage of UAF firing artillery at a crossing on the Bakhmutivka River just NW of Sil, indicates that RF have advanced that far. Geolocated footage also shows RF fighting in the Miasokombinat suburb of northeastern Bakhmut indicating that RF have made some marginal advances within Bakhmut as well. And UAS have admitted that RF have captured Krasnopolivka (NW of Soledar) and Dvorichchia (SW of Soledar). A RS also claims that RF have entered the southern outskirts of Paraskoviivka and are trying to move north from Klishchiivka to reach Ivanivske to cut off the T0504 supply route into Bakhmut.
Marinka – RS claim that RF have gained the initiative in Marinka and have also taken Vodiane. UAS deny that Vodiane has fallen, but geolocated footage does show evidence that RF have at least entered Vodiane. Geolocated footage also indicates that RF have advanced in Pisky.
Vuhledar – Geolocated footage indicates that RF have captured Mykilske just south of Vuhledar. RS claim that RF have entered the southern outskirts of Vuhledar itself, but UAS deny this and released footage of them fighting on the border of Mykilske suggesting RF have not advanced on Vuhledar. Social media posts show RF firing Thermobaric artillery at Vuhledar, such an expensive weapon that indicates Russia is making the capture of Vuhledar a priority.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Southern Zaporizhia – The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that their monitors have witnessed explosions near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) but Russia denies that any explosions are taking place in the plant but that the monitors are witnessing artillery fire in other regions. What is interesting is that Russia did not claim that the explosions are due to Ukrainian attacks on the plant as they usually do. Perhaps Russia is trying to downplay the danger and get the IAEA to recognize Russian control over the ZNPP.
After days of claiming to have taken territory along the Zaporizhia defense line, it was only silence on Friday revealing it was all a lie.
Eastern Kherson – RF continue to strike Kherson city and conducted rocket attacks near Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Belarus
Russia continues to increase its air force presence in Belarus and Belarusian forces are practicing river crossings and the building of pontoon bridges. But there is yet no evidence of a strike force indicating an invasion coming from Belarus.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
It was reported that Russia will not change the age of conscription as was earlier predicted. It will stay between 18 and 27 years of age. It was rumored that it would be extended to 30.
Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill accused those who fled the country to avoid conscription did so because of their lack of patriotism to Russia. And in the same breath he called on the Russian government to exempt priests from mobilization. So much for patriotism.
The Wagner Group is actively recruiting Ukrainian criminals who are serving time in Crimea.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia is placing Ukrainian children in the occupied regions up for adoption in Russia. A website titled “Adoption in Moscow Oblast” shows 14 Ukrainian children from the ages of two to five from Kherson Oblast at the Yolochka orphanage in Simferopol, Crimea.
Russia has moved to integrate Kherson into Russia by ending the Civil-Military rule of the oblast and replaced by civilian rule.
Other News
Anonymous Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a major offensive in the war against Ukraine that could come as early as February. And they believe that Russia will eventually win as Putin does not care about how many Russian lives are lost in order to win the war. The big question is where will this offensive take place. It is still unlikely that the offensive will come from Belarus as there still is no strike force being formed. The most likely location will be in Luhansk, either to retake territory in Kharkiv region that was lost, or simply to put a stop to Ukraine’s offensive. But it could also take place around Vuhledar where Russia has had some success over the last few days. Wherever it takes place, it is likely not to succeed.
It has been confirmed that President Putin is honoring the deal that the Wagner Group is making on convicts to join the war effort by granting them pardons prior to their service. This shows that while Putin is maneuvering to take back control of the war and place it under conventional forces, he still needs the private armies as cannon fodder.
Rumors are spreading that Russian authorities will begin requiring journalists in the war zone to begin wearing blue vests to identify them. Journalists are complaining that this will make them easy targets. The goal may be to dissuade journalists from being present on the front lines. Russia is trying to professionalize its army and to operate in silence like Ukraine. But these journalists keep posting videos giving vital intelligence to UAF on positions and troop strength.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.