UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF have increased their attacks all along the Donbas Line (Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts) in order to prevent UAF from gaining the initiative before the coming Russian major offensive which may now come as early as February. Russia is expediting their plans before the heavy tanks from the West arrive.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast)
The buildup of RF and the ferocity of the RF counterattacks and defense of Kreminna, all point to the coming major offensive taking place in Eastern Ukraine. The goal is still to take all of Donetsk Oblast, but the best way to do that is to recapture Lyman in order to attack Donetsk from both the north and the south. And that can only be done if UAF are stopped from taking Kreminna and pushed back beyond Lyman.
In order to take Lyman, RF will first need to take Kupyansk in the north, which is an important crossroad, to cut off UAF supply routes from Kharkiv. If Kupyansk is taken, then UAF east of the Oskil River will be trapped. But RF must first push UAF back over the Oskil River around Dvorichna where they have crossed to capture the whole east bank north of Kupyansk. Geolocated footage shows RF had some marginal success in advancing toward Hrianykivka on Saturday.
Another important target to take before the offensive is Chervonopopivka which UAF now hold cutting off the P66 Highway between Svatove and Kreminna, the main Russian supply route. UAS have been reporting every day for weeks of UAF repelling RF assaults on Chervonopopivka. And RF must hold UAF from advancing from Novoselivske towards Svatove.
Then when the major offensive begins to retake Lyman, the first objective will be to push UAF back to the Novoselivske-Makiyivka-Nevske-Terny-Torske line. Current RF assaults suggests that this will be the strategy.
UAF are beefing up their attacks deeper into Russian occupied territory to disrupt Russian logistics and ground lines of communication. UAF struck a hospital in Novoaidar killing 14 people. RS claim that civilian patients were killed, but UAS claim that they were Russian soldiers. UAF also struck a concentration of RF near Starobilsk killing another 14 soldiers and wounding 30.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – I had stated in earlier reports that the Battle for Bakhmut had culminated, and though I stand by that, it must now be qualified that it was in reference to the private army of Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin known as the Wagner Group. They lost 80% of their troops in this battle, and apart from taking Soledar, have very little to show for their great loss. They were a dried-up force and their attack on Bakhmut had indeed culminated. But now Russian conventional forces have taken over the Battle of Bakhmut and it is once again a hot spot in this war against Ukraine. Video footage of the street fighting in Bakhmut reveals a Russian BMD-4M which is only used by Russian Airborne Forces (VDV). Either these conventional forces are augmenting the Wagner Group forces, or most likely, have replaced them. Geolocated footage indicates that RF made some marginal advances in the northeast outskirts of Bakhmut on Saturday.
But conventional RF are not likely to continue to send human waves of fighters against the heavily defended Bakhmut but attempts to encircle the city and cut off the supply routes forcing UAF to retreat. RF have likely captured Klishchiivka and are slowly moving north towards Ivanivske to cut off one of the main supply routes into Bakhmut forcing UAF to retreat from the city using the only open escape route of M03 Highway rather than be encircled and trapped like the UAF were in Mariupol earlier in the war.
Avdiivka – The other main objective is to take Avdiivka which borders their occupied capital of Donetsk city. This is even more heavily fortified than Bakhmut and even the Wagner Group stopped their suicidal frontal attacks on the city. They will also try to surround the city and force the defenders to retreat. Towards this end, geolocated footage indicates that RF are advancing on Vodiane and may have already reached the outskirts. From there the plan will be to drive north to Tonenke and the Orlivka to cut off the main supply route into Avdiivka.
Vuhledar – One of the current major RF assaults are in Vuhledar. Its defense is vital to holding the defense line in Southern Ukraine. UAF are moving from the defense of Bakhmut and Eastern Ukraine to bolster the defenses of Vuhledar. And that is exactly what Russia was planning on happening before they launch their major offensive in Eastern Ukraine. They have created this hotspot to draw UAF away from Eastern Ukraine.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
For the second day in a row, all the clatter of RF attacking along the Southern Zaporizhia line has been silent suggesting that what happened there earlier in the week was just small operations meant to divert UAF to the area for defense.
RF continue their daily artillery and rocket attacks in Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. A Russian Iskander missile struck a factory in Zaporizhia city overnight on Friday.
Belarus
There is still no indication of RF forming a strike group in Belarus.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
A Russian citizen was detained for setting fire to a Russian railroad relay box near Bryansk in order to slow down the supply of troops into Ukraine. It is believed that he also destroyed another railroad transformer box in Ovinny with the use of a drone.
A Russian soldier posted a video accusing his commander’s ineptitude causing the deaths of 70% of his company. The video praised the Wagner Group for saving what was left of the rest of his fellow soldiers.
Reports of Russian officers forcing mobilized Russian soldiers to sign contracts as volunteer soldiers are circulating. Reports of intimidation, threats of violence, and rounds fired at soldiers’ feet are being circulated.
Another Russian soldier posted a complaint of rampant drunkenness in his company and even an unreported murder. The soldier complains that his commander is constantly drunk and beats his soldiers and even threatens to shoot them. The soldier, obviously a man with funds, claims he has hired other soldiers as his bodyguards because he is afraid of retribution.
Russian authorities have not paid workers who have been digging useless defense trenches in Belgorod Oblast out of a misguided fear that UAF may attack within Russian territory.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia has allocated nearly $1 million to add three more buildings to the orphanage in Gorny, Crimea, where they are transporting children from the occupied region of Ukraine. These new building will hold 400 Ukrainian children. There are currently 14,000 verified Ukrainian children who have been forcibly deported to Russia. It is estimated the total amount is around 150,000.
Russian occupation authorities continue to force Ukrainians in occupied territories to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship and obtain Russian passports. In Donetsk Oblast, only civilians with Russian passports will be able to maintain their employment after March 1.
Russia has raised the retirement age from 55 to 60 in occupied regions of Ukraine and has reduced the monthly wage to 11,000 rubles ($155) a month, which is half of what pensioners make in Russia.
Other News
The big question is whether this coming Russian offensive will be successful or not. There is no evidence that Russia has replenished what they have lost in this war. And if they were unable to accomplish what they intended when at full power, it is unlikely they will succeed now, especially in light of UAF having been greatly replenished by western countries. Russia’s successes around Bakhmut were accomplished through human waves of attacks by the convict soldiers of the Wagner Group. It is not probable that Russian conventional forces will do the same. And the hard-won success in capturing Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last summer was due to the overwhelming artillery power of the RF which is now spent. And yet Russia is still confident that they will win and will inflict great damage on the Ukrainian people in this attempt. But it will not be the last, as Russia has no regard for their own countrymen’s lives and will surely send even more to their graves in more attempts in the future. The only way to win is to completely drive RF from Ukrainian lands.
The biggest loser in the short-term is Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the financier of the Wagner Group. They are a spent force and their usefulness to Russia has come to an end. They were only needed to occupy UAF until the coming major offensive was ready. The Ministry of Defense has retaken the initiative and leadership on the ground and has sidelined the Wagner Group. Prigozhin is desperately trying to maintain his relevance by reflecting on the failures of his opponents and bragging on the successes of the Wagner Group in appealing to the people. But with looming bribery accusations hanging over him, he will soon lose the love of the Russian people who hate even more an oligarch who takes bribes. Evidence is mounting that in his recruitment of prisoners, he has accepted bribes by other imprisoned oligarchs to be pardoned without having to fight. We can expect his arrest soon.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.