UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF made some incremental advances on Bakhmut taking all of the industry area to the east, moving up from Opytne in the south, and now reaching the northern outskirts of the city. RF also pushed back UAF a half mile from Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast)
RF have increased the rate of shelling around Svatove and Kreminna suggesting they are preparing for their major offensive. UAF have pulled troops to Kupyansk in anticipation of the coming offensive. RF have also intensified their ground attacks and reportedly pushed UAF back a half mile from Kreminna on Thursday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage confirms that RF have made incremental advances towards Rozdolivka (9 miles NE), capturing Mykolaivka, and advancing towards the northern outskirts of Bakhmut. RF have taken the entire industry area on the eastern side of Bakhmut and are now advancing towards the center. They have also established full control of Opytne to the south and are advancing into Bakhmut from that direction.
UAS have reported that UAF retreated from Sacco i Vanzetti village which has been occupied by RF. UAF are holding RF back from Ivanivske to defend access along the T0504 highway. RF have also advanced in a forest area beyond Bilohorivka (Donetsk Oblast) indicating that Bilohorivka is also under Russian occupation now.
Vuhledar – RF have stopped their ground assaults towards Vuhledar over the last few days.
A Russian missile struck an apartment building in Kramatorsk killing at least three people and injuring 20 others. Many more may be buried in the rubble and the death toll may rise.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
UAF fired HIMARS rockets striking a Russian surface-to-air missile system near Oleshky. They also hit a Russian ammunition depot near Novoukrainka.
RF continues their daily shelling west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. They also shelled Kherson city and Ochakiv.
Belarus
Russia and Belarus officially announced that they have ended their joint aviation exercises. It is not clear whether RF who participated in these exercises will remain in Belarus or return to Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
The Russian Duma passed a bill that allows military commanders to arrest military personnel without a trial and send them to guardhouses for up to ten days. This is part of their strategy to make the Russian army more professional by allowing military commander to administer discipline as they prepare for a new offensive.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russia continues its crackdown on the Tatar population in Crimea. Another Tatar was arrested yesterday on trumped up charges.
Other News
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Representative Andriy Chernyak said in a press interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk (of which they already control 58%) and Luhansk (of which they already control 90%) by the end of March. This supports the view that RF will launch a major offensive starting soon for the Donbas region. Russian authorities have turned off all telecommunication services in the occupied regions so that Ukrainian partisans cannot call in locations of Russian troops to hit with HIMARS rockets and prevent RF from giving up locations by use of their cell phones. But Putin’s order, if accurate, shows that Putin still overestimates the capabilities of RF as it would likely culminate in April just as UAF start their next counter-offensive.
International Support
European Union Chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv on Thursday ahead of a Friday EU summit. She reiterated the EU’s support for Ukraine.
Austria expelled four Russian diplomats for “acting in a manner inconsistent with their diplomatic status.”
The New York Times published an anonymous report that put the casualty count at 200,000 Russian soldiers and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.