UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
RF were unable to make any progress for the third day in a row since commencing their second major offensive.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Evidence is mounting that Eastern Ukraine is becoming the priority for the Russian campaign to conquer Ukraine. RF are using TOS-1 thermobaric multiple rocket launch systems which is a high-level asset of the Russian military. UAF have also destroyed another high-level asset when they destroyed a Russian BMPT Terminator armored fighting vehicle just south of Kreminna. But on the third day of the second major Russian offensive, all RF assaults in the region were repelled.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – There has been a noticeable decrease in the number of direct attacks against settlements around Bakhmut, and more of a drive to cut off supply lines and encircle Bakhmut. But no progress was made by RF on the third day of the second major Russian offensive.
Avdiivka/Marinka – No progress was made by RF in encircling Avdiivka or taking Marinka.
Vuhledar – Although RF continue their unsuccessful attacks towards Vuhledar, the makeup of the forces are volunteer battalions suggesting that the regular troops took a beating over the last few days and are being replaced.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF attempted an assault on Novoandriivka but were repelled. RF continue to fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson Oblasts on a daily basis. Kherson city and Nikopol were hit the hardest.
Belarus
Although Russia is no longer conducting joint military exercises with Belarus, Belarus continues their military exercises.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Russia continues to integrate volunteer units into the Russian Armed Forces. The latest is the Donetsk People’s Republic volunteer army becoming the Russian 11th Regiment.
A Russian military court ruled that Russian commanders can legally refuse to release soldiers after their contracts end.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives and instructed them to focus on the development of occupied territories stating that Russia needs to foster social commitment of the Ukrainian population to Russia.
Russia continues to remove women and children from occupied territories to Russia for perinatal care. Russian doctors are providing obstetric services in the occupied territories and recommending treatments only found in Russia.
Russian occupation authorities thwarted a partisan attempt to assassinate the Berdyansk deputy occupation leader.
Other News
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has seen the writing on the wall and is quietly stepping aside. He has completely stopped the recruiting of prisoners to join his private army. He knows that his popularity will make it nearly impossible for Russian President Vladimir Putin to come out against him, but wisely knows Putin will if backed into a corner. So, Prigozhin as wisely decided to lay low and not back Putin into a corner. Better to cancel his show while he is at the top of the ratings, than to watch his empire fall with his reputation.
Putin, in the meantime, continues to prepare for a protracted war with Ukraine. He held a meeting on Thursday to foster the development of drones within Russia. This means it will take time to build the factories and industry to build these drones. Russia is also in need of producing more tanks as they have lost over 1500 of them in this war with Ukraine already. This is equivalent to 15 tank divisions.
Corruption will be the downfall of Russia. The Russian military has just signed a contract with the 22-year-old son of the Russian Deputy Head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management to supply the military with uniforms. The new uniforms are said to be of inferior quality and overpriced.
Elon Musk says he will curb Ukraine’s use of his Starlink internet services that Ukraine has been using to improve their military drone attacks on Russia. Musk says that he originally gave Ukraine access to his satellites for humanitarian purposes and was forbidden to use them for military purposes.
International Support
After an address to the UK Parliament on Wednesday where he received a standing ovation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky flew to Paris to have dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Both leader promised to support Ukraine as long as necessary to bring victory. Then Zelensky was the guest of honor at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday where he made a plea for more tanks, missiles, and added fighter jets to his wish list.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.