UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Has Russia launched its second major offensive? This is the question on many analyst’s minds. If they have, then it has little chance of succeeding as they have taken such few territories and are still focusing on Bakhmut which is of no strategic importance to their main goal of taking Luhansk and Donetsk. It is, of course, of symbolic importance, but if RF really were able to fulfill the order by Russian President Vladimir Putin to take all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by March, they would ignore Bakhmut for now and drive for the prize of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The fact they are not suggests that they do not have the troops or munitions to accomplish this, and they know it. Ukrainian Intelligence Chief Andriy Chernyak stated that Russia does not have the resources to launch a large-scale offensive operation. And Russian milbloggers are demoralized and accusing Russian officials of creating unattainable expectations. Let’s pray they are right.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kupyansk – RS claim that RF have captured Dvorichna (18 miles NE) and continue their fight for Hrianykivka (20 miles NE). This, of course, makes no sense as they could not have taken Dvorichna if they are still fighting for Hrianykivka. Perhaps the RS confused Dvorichne, which RF claimed to have taken on Friday, with Dvorichna. There is no confirmation though that RF have even captured Dvorichne or even made any advances towards Dvorichna.
Svatove – RS claimed that RF made another unsuccessful assault towards Stelmakhivka (15 miles W).
Kreminna – RF are building up their forces to push UAF back from Kreminna, but the UGS claimed that they have repelled all RF assaults in the area. But geolocated footage from Friday indicates that RF have made marginal advances west of Shepylove (10 miles S). Fighting also continues in the forests are Dibrova (6 miles SW).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
RF are conducting around 50 assaults a day in this area around occupied Donetsk city. But they have had limited success in the last few weeks and have lost considerable lives and equipment. The main fighting on Saturday was around Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Marinka.
Bakhmut – 60% of the RF assaults were conducted Saturday around Bakhmut. This is the only area on the defense line that RF are making progress, which suggests they cannot create a full-scale offensive along the frontlines and can only focus on this small area. The most elite forces of Russia are involved in the capture of Bakhmut. And the RF are prepared for urban warfare, but if they take Bakhmut, they do not have the mechanized ability to move beyond.
Although the UGS claimed to have repelled RF assaults around Krasna Hora, geolocated footage shows Russian soldiers walking freely in the eastern part of the city suggesting UAF have retreated, and the city was captured by RF. Krasna Hora is only two miles from the city limits of Bakhmut to the north and the only community between them is Paraskoviivka which RS claim RF have now entered. If Paraskoviivka falls, then UAF will lose the main supply artery of the M03 highway into Bakhmut.
The UGS also reported that they repelled all RF assaults in Bakhmut itself, but geolocated footage indicates that Wagner Group forces made some marginal advances in the NE outskirts of the city. RS claim that RF also made advances in the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
A bridge west of Ivanivske was destroyed yesterday along the secondary UAF supply route of the T0504 highway. It is not sure whether RF destroyed the bridge to prevent a UAF withdrawal from Bakhmut, or whether UAF destroyed the bridge to stop an advance on Bakhmut from the west. Either way, UAF still have plenty of country roads to supply the troops defending Bakhmut and is unlikely to retreat from their fortified positions any time soon.
Avdiivka/Marinka – All RF assaults on the two cities were repelled on Saturday.
Vuhledar – Not even a week has gone by in the renewed Russian offensive against Ukraine and RF have already culminated in their attack on this little target of Vuhledar. A recently released video shows UAF destroying a disorderly column of Russian mechanized forces in the Vuhledar area. Russian milbloggers are blaming the commanders for attempting the same failed strategy they tried in the past. Geolocated footage shows RF using thermobaric artillery against Vuhledar indicating RF have not given up on capturing Vuhledar despite their heavy losses.
Siversk – RS have been buzzing about another attempt to capture Siversk north of Bakhmut. RS claim that Wagner Group forces are fighting for Fedorivka (9 miles S) and Bilohorivka (8 miles NE). The claim is that Wagner Group forces are attempting to encircle the city, but this is unlikely as Wagner Group offensives in the region are waning, and the RS claim that RF had taken Bilohorivka was proven false.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
No confirmed ground attacks were conducted by RF in Southern Ukraine on Saturday. RF are attempting to drain the Kakhovka Reservoir north of occupied Zaporizhia as the water level has dropped from 16 meters to 14 meters since December. This is creating a danger for the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant currently controlled by RF which relies on the water of the reservoir to cool their nuclear tanks. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the current level is not a risk, but if the water level continues to fall, it could become a problem. Russia claims that Ukraine is draining the reservoir to improve their chances of an offensive into occupied Zaporizhia. This is unlikely as Ukraine would not risk a nuclear disaster in their own country.
RF continue to build up their defense on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River expecting a UAF offensive in the region. But RS claim that Russia is not building up its military forces, but its police forces to control the occupied region suggesting the Russia is more concerned about the partisan activity than a Ukrainian offensive.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is trying to salvage his declining influence in Russia. The R-MoD has knocked out his legs underneath him by pulling out of its agreement with Prigozhin to pardon criminals who join Wagner Forces. And the Russian media has turned against him as well as evident in his latest interview where he was asked why his troops are wearing “symbols of the Third Reich” despite fighting to “denazify” Ukraine. They also questioned him on the high number of casualties and desertions among his troops and asked him about his political aspirations. Prigozhin could only admit that his agreement with the government to offer pardons in exchange for service has ended and that he has no political aspirations. Instead Prigozhin criticized the R-MoD aspirations of taking the Donbas by stating it would take at least two years and was not sure the Russian people would support the war effort for that long. But if Prigozhin had hoped this interview would restore his image, he was sorely disappointed as he was on the defensive throughout.
Relatives of mobilized soldiers from Russia Tatarstan published a letter of complaint that their sons are being forced to return to the frontlines under the command of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces who are using their boys as cannon fodder. Mobilized soldiers from Kaliningrad have also sent a letter of complaint to their governor that DNR commanders are sending them to the frontlines without any preparation. The R-MoD admitted that they transferred troops from Tuvan who also complained about the poor conditions they suffered under the DNR.
Russian authorities opened a criminal case against a resident of Omsk for destruction of a recruitment center in his city charging him with terrorism.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin met with occupation officials in Kherson and Zaporizhia about rebuilding the infrastructure of the occupied territories. They insisted that all landowners must return to their property, or it will be nationalized and redistributed.
Partisans destroyed a railway control station near Shchastia which is a supply route to RF in Svatove and Kreminna.
Other News
Russia launched another missile and drone attack overnight on Friday/Saturday after their Friday attack was such a great disappointment. But of the 24 drones that were launched, UAF shot down twenty of them. The main targets were energy infrastructure in the cities of Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Khmelnitsky. The Zatoka Bridge in Odesa Oblast, used to transport western weapons to Ukraine, was seriously struck as well by a naval drone. It seems that since most of the targets were in Southern Ukraine, that Russia was sending a signal that they had not abandoned their goals of capturing Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
Oleh Voloshyn, a member of the Ukrainian parliament from the banned pro-Russian For Life Party, has been charged with treason for disseminating pro-Russian propaganda prior to the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Switzerland has rejected a request from Spain to deliver Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine stating it would violate their neutrality.
International Support
President Joe Biden announced he will travel to Poland next week to make an address near the one-year anniversary of the Russian renewed invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian diaspora in Chicago is calling on the Joffrey Ballet to cancel their performances of work by Russian artist Tchaikovsky while Ukrainians are being killed by Russian guns.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.