UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Russian major offensive continues without much progress. The six main targets are Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vuhledar. Only towards Bakhmut is any progress being made by RF, albeit a slow grind there as well.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF are conducting reconnaissance and sabotage operations along the Russian-Ukraine international borders north of Kharkiv according to the UGS who reported repelling a sabotage group near the border town of Bolohivka. As reported earlier, these are not necessarily signaling a new assault from Russia north and east of Kharkiv, but most likely just to tie down UAF along the border and to keep them away from assisting in the defense of Eastern Ukraine. Artillery attacks north of Kupyansk around Fyholivka and Novomlynsk are also probably meant for the same purpose, although those attacks come from within Ukrainian occupied areas.
Kupyansk – UAF repelled all attacks in this region. The unsuccessful RF attacks around Fyholivka suggest a new strategy of capturing Dvorichna from the north as the campaign east of the settlement has deadlocked. Dvorichna controls the supply route to Kupyansk.
Lyman/Siversk – With the UAF offensive towards Kreminna now in reverse, the RF campaign shifts towards driving towards Lyman and Siversk as an important crossroad to take Donetsk Oblast from the north. A RS claimed that RF gained three miles towards that objective on Wednesday in the forested area around Dibrova. But the terrain, forest, and Ukrainian fortification are making it difficult. The UGS reported that UAF repelled RF assaults farther north on Kuzemivka, which if true, means that UAF have advanced towards Svatove which will also slow down the RF assault towards Lyman as they need to defend this defense hole as well.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
UAF conducted a massive attack on RF positions around Donetsk using HIMARS rockets. Video footage shows attacks in Donetsk city, Makiyivka, Horlivka, Khartsyzk, Debaltseve, Ilovaisk, and Mariupol.
Bakhmut – The situation in Bakhmut is complicated. First, we know that the E40 highway, one of the two main supply routes to Bakhmut, is under RF control. RF continue to inch closer to it just south of Zaliznyanske (6 miles N) which is confirmed by geolocated footage. Both UAS and RS report on fighting in Berkhivka (2.5 miles N) which means that RF have crossed the E40 highway. Some RS even claim that RF have reached the center of Berkhivka, but that is not confirmed. RF have entered the northern outskirts of Bakhmut reaching the Stupky Railway Station and possibly even fighting for Yahidne (1 mile N). UAF continue to hold their positions around Ivanivske, and maybe have even pushed RF farther back, maintaining control of the T0504 highway, the second main supply route into Bakhmut.
Avdiivka – UAF continue to repel most RF assaults around Avdiivka. Geolocated footage does indicate that RF made slight advances north of Vesele (3.5 miles S).
Marinka – UAF repelled all attacks in Marinka.
Vuhledar – UAF continue to hold the high ground around Vuhledar repelling all attacks in the region.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Although RF are focusing on defense in the region, they did send a message home to Russia that they are committed to the goal of eventually retaking western Kherson and capturing the city of Zaporizhia. The message was sent by tank fire across the Dnipro River into western Kherson and a surprise attack on Kamianske on the Zaporizhian line of defense.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
The New York Times reported on Monday that US intelligence officials have reported that Russia continues to mobilize hundreds of thousands more recruit. But Russia lacks the capacity to train them or to equip them. Russia is finding it hard to replace heavy equipment due to the effective sanctions. Russia has lost half of its tanks already and running low on ammunition for those still operational.
CNN reported at 22,000 Russian citizens have fled into the US through the southern border to avoid being conscripted into the Russian army.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially promoted police chiefs in the occupied territories under Russian leadership to transfer power from the rebel-led authority to Russian control.
Other News
After much criticism of giving an address to the nation with no substance, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave another speech with no substance. Again, he reiterated that Russia must reclaim their historic territory which includes Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, the Baltic States, portions of Finland, and much of the Central Asian countries ending with “stan”. He made it clear that Ukraine was not the end, but that Russia had a vast imperialistic plan ahead. In support of that was his announcement the day before that he revoked Russia’s signature to a commitment to respect the territorial integrity of Moldova signaling that country was next on his list of conquests.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued his battle with the R-MoD accusing them again of withholding artillery ammunition from his private army. He made the accusation with dead bodies around him suggesting that these deaths were the fault of the R-MoD going as far as calling their actions “crimes against fighters”.
US State Department Spokesman Ned Price stated that the US government is concerned about the strengthening of Russia-China relations. He called them both bully nations who have intentions of taking neighbors by force.
International Support
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged $5.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
The United Nations General Assembly met to discuss a peace resolution in the Russian/Ukraine war. It is expected to be voted on by Thursday. The resolution defends the sovereignty of Ukrainian territory and would call on Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. The resolution is not binding on Russia though.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.