UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
For the third day in a row just days before the one-year anniversary of the Russian renewed invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin again gave a speech stating the same old talking points that Russia is fighting to defend Russian in historic Russian lands and against the Nazi forces that have taken over Kyiv. He gave no substance to explain Russia’s failures and difficulties, and plans on how to reverse these setbacks. It seems that he knows it will be a long war and must prepare his people for the long fight, especially as very little ground has been gained in the new major offensive. RF again made only marginal advances along the frontlines at a great cost. The number of attacks is one-third of what they were before the major offensive started. RF are tired and falling in numbers. They are again no longer fighting as battalions, but as small units.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
It seems that RF are near culmination in their major offensive in Eastern Ukraine as no territory was taken on Thursday and the number of RF assaults are greatly diminished.
Kupyansk – No change on the ground towards Kupyansk.
Lyman/Siversk – Geolocated footage was released showing a Russian remote-controlled IED driving towards UAF positions near Chervonopopivka and failing to detonate.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage confirms that RF continue to make marginal advances within the city of Bakhmut in eastern and southern outskirts. RS claim that RF have captured Berkhivka north of Bakhmut and are moving on Yahidne, just north of Bakhmut. RS also claim that RF have gained control of the T0504 highway, which if true, means that both major supply routes into Bakhmut are blocked. If that were true, then Bakhmut would still not be considered encircled as there are plenty of country roads that can be used to supply UAF in Bakhmut. None of these RS claims have been confirmed.
Avdiivka – RF conducted 43 unsuccessful attacks around Avdiivka, but as smaller units and not battalions. Geolocated footage confirms that RF made marginal advances in the Novobakhmutivka area.
Marinka – Geolocated footage confirms that RF have made marginal advances towards Pobieda to the south of Marinka.
Vuhledar – RF have again increased their attacks towards Vuhledar, but without success. The UGS reported that one Russian brigade in the region has refused to fight due to the recently failed operations.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
With the exception of an unsuccessful RF assault near Novodanylivka, all was quiet along frontlines in Southern Ukraine. RF continue to shell UAF along the defense lines and farther back.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Video footage has begun to show Russian military equipment from the 1950s on the frontlines suggesting that Russia is suffering from a great loss of military equipment.
Russia passed a law on Wednesday maintaining increased pensions for military pensioners who reenter military service. Video footage was also posted of widows of veterans receiving sausages and food packets.
Due to a lack of medical workers among Russian forces in Ukraine, Russia has shortened the training period for surgeons, anesthesiologists, traumatologists, and orthopedists to address this shortage. The amount of time shortened was not specified.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Ukrainian youth in occupied Melitopol are being encouraged to take the Yunarmia oath (joining the youth army) which is charged with local law enforcement and rescue operations.
Russia continues to build partnerships with Russian investors in enterprises within the occupied territories to foster dependence on Russia.
Belarus
Russia is preparing conditions for false flag operations in Belarus around Chernihiv. UAF have reported sittings of Russian convoys of unmarked vehicles with Russian personnel dressed in Ukrainian uniforms. The purpose of this suggests that they will conduct an attack on Belarus in an attempt to get Belarus to join Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had pledged last Thursday that Belarus would not join in the war if attacked by Ukraine. It is still considered very unlikely that Belarus will become involved in the war against Ukraine, but it will have the secondary purpose of forcing Ukraine to commit forces to defend against that possibility.
Russian troops continue to train within Belarusian territory, but not at the level that would allow them to conduct an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus.
Other News
The R-MoD claimed that Ukraine was preparing to attack RF in Moldova. They said it would be a false flag operation with Ukrainian troops dressed in Russian uniforms. The R-MoD suggests that Ukraine has made a deal with the Moldovan government to expel RF from the Russian-occupied region of Transnistria, Moldova. The Moldovan government responded that Ukraine has no intention of attacking within Moldova. Since Russia does not have the forces to attack Moldova, or even Ukraine from Moldova, the only explanation is an attempt by Russia to destabilize Moldova.
President Putin addressed the growing criticism of absorbing the forces of the rebel armies of Donetsk and Luhansk into the R-MoD forces. He pledged that all rebel troops would have the full recognition as Russian soldiers and would receive all benefits as well.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that R-MoD, under pressure from supporters of the Wagner Group, has switched tactics and is again supplying Wagner Group forces with artillery. He worded it in a way that gave credit to his supporters who put pressure on the R-MoD, rather than giving credit directly to the R-MoD.
China announced that they will release soon their peace proposal over the conflict in Ukraine. But Ukrainian officials reported that they were not consulted by the Chinese government and any plan they deliver only will have the support of Russia.
International Support
At a gathering of the UN General Assembly to produce a non-binding peace agreement in the war between Russia and Ukraine, UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Although the peace agreement is not as strong as Ukraine desires, it is hoped that at least 143 countries will sign the agreement calling on Russia to desist all attacks and to leave Ukrainian territories.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv to show Spain’s support for Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.