UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Kremlin was surprisingly silent on the one-year anniversary of their second invasion of Ukraine this millennium. This is likely because of their failures to make any significant headway in their battle for the Donbas.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF continued their major offensive in Eastern Ukraine launching attacks against Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Dibrova, Serebrianka, and Bilohorivka. But all to no avail as UAF repelled them at every point.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Geolocated footage on Thursday indicates that RF have made some marginal gains west of Paraskoviivka (4.5 miles N) towards Berkhivka. Wagner Force financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claims that they have captured Berkhivka, which is likely as Wagner Group forces have reached the northern outskirts of Yahidne (1 mile N) confirmed by geolocated footage. Some RS claim that they have already captured all of Yahidne, but there is no confirmation of that claim. This likely means that UAF have retreated from the northern region of Bakhmut, which is now under attack from three sides.
RS also claim to have made some marginal advances in the northeast, east, and southern outskirts of Bakhmut itself, but geolocated footage only confirms advances in the northeast. RF also continue their attempt to cut off the T0504 Highway by advancing towards Ivanivske, but UAF are holding them off. The T0504 Highway may already be cut off by RF advancing towards Chasiv Yar farther west.
Avdiivka – UAF held off all attacks around Avdiivka, but RS claim that RF may have briefly entered Pobieda (20 miles SW) but were pushed back by UAF. UAF have begun a counterattack and have pushed RF back towards Vasylivka.
Marinka – UAF held off all attacks in Marinka.
Vuhledar – UAF are effectively using high rise buildings in Vuhledar to stop RF advances towards the city. RF did make some marginal advances northeast of Mykilske confirmed by geolocated footage.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF continue to shell UAF across the Dnipro River, but UAF blew up a Russian ammunition depot near Nova Kakhovka with rocket fire just after RF moved equipment into the area. RF continue rocket fire against targets in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
For three days now, Ukraine has been hitting Russian targets in Mariupol, but the questions is how? Mariupol is out of range of the HIMARS rocket systems supplied by the US. Perhaps the US has given GMLRS rocket systems to Ukraine which have twice the range of HIMAR rockets. But the US has publicly refused to send such weapons to Ukraine. Whatever has happened, it is obvious that Ukraine can now strike farther into Russian occupied territory.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
An unknown person threw a Molotov cocktail at an enlistment center in Murmansk City. Another Russian citizen received a four-year prison sentence for an arson attack on another recruitment center in Volgograd City last May.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Ukrainian partisans blew up train track in Crimea 7.5 miles northwest of the capital city of Sevastopol delaying three civilian transport trains.
Russia is cutting off mobile operators in Luhansk Oblast to keep residents from speading information about RF troop movements. A 24-hour curfew has also been imposed on Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast to allow for the movement of military equipment.
Other News
China released its 12-point peace plan on Friday which was surely a big disappointment to Russia. The plan was basically neutered to show China support for Russia while still trying to maintain relations with Europe. The plan called on both Russia and Ukraine to respect each other’s territory, cease hostilities, resume peace talks, and cease all sanctions.
The Kremlin again for the second day claimed that UAF are preparing to attack RF in Transnistria, Moldova.
International Support
The UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to demand Russia to withdraw all troops from Ukrainian territories. 141 countries voted in support of Ukraine, just two shy of the number that condemned Russia’s invasion a year ago. Six countries joined with Russia in voting against the resolution – Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, Mali, and Nicaragua. A year ago, Mali and Eritrea had abstained, but are now supporting Russia. 32 countries abstained most notably China, Iran, India, Pakistan, and South Africa.
UN Rights Chief Volker Turk condemned Russia for the 20,000 civilian casualties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with over 8000 killed. He vowed to fight for justice in international courts.
The US announced another set of sanctions on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine.
King Charles of England condemned Russia for their war against Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the second Russian invasion.
Polish President Andrzej Duda reported that Poland has delivered the first batch of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The new sanctions are meant to hurt Russia’s ability to earn revenue. Among target are several banks used by Russia to circumvent sanctions. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki visited Kyiv to show Polish support for Ukraine.
US Army Minister Christian Wormuth stated that it would take the US more than a year to deliver the promised M1Abrams tanks to Ukraine due to production issues. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan added that Russia has already lost this war and that Ukraine will not need the provision of F-16 fighter jets.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.