UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Russian second offensive has culminated in Eastern Ukraine and will soon culminate in the Donetsk Oblast as well. Coming next will be Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive. But that does not mean Russia has stopped attacking Ukraine, having conducted 130 attacks alone on Sunday.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The Russian second offensive, whose main goal was to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, has culminated in the Luhansk campaign, and as reported below, will soon culminate in the Donetsk campaign, with very little gained.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
UAF are conducting a tactical withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut to the western banks of the Bakhmutivka River. Geolocated footage confirms that RF have reached the eastern bank of the Bakhmutivka River in the east, the Tavr Meat Plant in the northeast, and the Stupky Train Station in the north. In the south, RF maintain their positions just before the main cemetery. RF now control around 40% of the city.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), one of my main sources, published a detailed report on the Battle for Bakhmut that I will try to summarize as briefly as possible. UAF are unlikely to withdraw completely from Bakhmut as its strategic value is in the high casualties it inflicts on RF attempting to take the city. Urban warfare favors the defender, and Ukraine has spent eight years building the defenses of Bakhmut. The key to this plan is the holding of Khromove, a village on the western edge of Bakhmut only 3.5 miles from the center of Bakhmut. Khromove defends the only supply route left into Bakhmut and the only route left for a controlled withdrawal if that becomes necessary.
Ukraine has been on tremendous pressure from western leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden to withdraw from Bakhmut in order to use those resources for a counter-offensive elsewhere. But Ukraine has held firm to this better strategy which has resulted in a substantial attrition of RF to the point that most experts say Russia cannot now recover from and defend against a Ukrainian counteroffensive. It is very unlikely that Russia could even muster enough forces to move beyond Bakhmut if they did succeed to capture it. The Russian second major offensive will likely culminate whether RF capture Bakhmut or not, largely due to the catastrophic losses in their attempt to take Vuhledar 80 miles to the southwest on the western border of occupied Donetsk city.
It is estimated that Russia has lost seven times the number of soldiers in the Battle of Bakhmut and cannot continue their war against Ukraine at this rate. Most of the victories that Russia has had have been conducted by the private Wagner Group forces, but they have seen their forces decimated as well with 30,000 casualties so far, 9000 of them deaths. Russia will need to launch another wave of mobilization and then take months for training before any other offensive can begin. So, Russia is done now until at least the fall giving Ukraine the initiative again as they launch a counteroffensive in the spring with new heavy weapons supplied from the West, of which RF will be so depleted they will not be able to withstand.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Eastern Military District commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov to take Vuhledar at any cost, which is code for his position is in jeopardy if he does not take Vuhledar. But many of the RF in the area have reportedly refused to fight anymore and the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely, but many RF casualties will result in this last attempt. And even if somehow Vuhledar would fall, Bakhmut is too far away for its loss to make a difference in that fight.
The bottom line is that the Battle for Vuhledar has culminated, and the Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine has culminated, and soon the Battle for Bakhmut will culminate. Ukraine will regain the initiative with new heavy weapons and can pick the theater of their choice to launch another counter-offensive.
Other News
The death toll of the Russian missile attack on a civilian apartment building in Zaporizhia city last Thursday has now risen to thirteen, including an eight-month-old baby.
International Support
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in Lviv to discuss the fast tracking of Ukraine into becoming a member of the European Union.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.