UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Ukraine has officially announced that they will not withdraw from Bakhmut but will continue to defend the city as long as more losses are inflicted on RF than UAF.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF conducted several assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line but were repelled by UAF in every attack.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite pressure from the U.S. otherwise, announced that Ukraine will continue to defend the city of Bakhmut and has ordered more troops to its defense. This announcement was made after Zelensky met with his top military commanders who recommended the continued defense of Bakhmut. Though Bakhmut has no strategic value, its capture would give Russia a symbolic victory. And as long as RF are dying in much greater numbers than UAF, it is of value to maintain its defense. The inexperienced conscripts of the Wagner Forces have now been spent on the capture of Bakhmut, and their elite troops are now suffering significantly. Wagner Force financier Valeriy Prigozhin has begun to complain that his elite troops are being sacrificed for the nonstrategic capture of Bakhmut and that he will die with them in the Battle for Bakhmut. The destruction of Russia’s most elite troops is worth the continued defense of Bakhmut.
Fighting within the city of Bakhmut continues with RF controlling an estimated 40% of the city. A geolocated video showed RF raising the Russian flag over the T-34 Tank memorial in eastern Bakhmut which commemorated the defeat of the German Nazis during World War II.
Avdiivka – RF continue their assaults around Avdiivka concentrating on the area of Pobieda and Krasnohorivka, but to no avail. The RF fighting in this sector are the ones that were chased out of Kharkiv region last September and are very tired still and unlikely to have any success.
Marinka – RF continue to fight to recapture Marinka but no confirmed progress was made.
Vuhledar – RF conducted no assaults in this region. The RF of the 155th Brigade are refusing to fight anymore. Rumors are circulating on Russian milblogger sites warning that a Ukrainian counter-offensive will be targeted here after RF suffered such catastrophic losses over the last month.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Fighting continues over the islands of the Dnipro River around Kherson. Geolocated footage shows RF shelling UAF on Potomkynsky Island. RS claim they chased the UAF off the island, but there is no confirmation of this.
Russian milblogger sites are also abuzz about the 12,000 UAF massed in Southern Ukraine for a counter-offensive all the way to Mariupol and the Sea of Azov.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
Once again Russia needs troops. Last May they tried an unsuccessful volunteer recruitment campaign but were forced to switch to a general mobilization in September when UAF mounted a devastating counter-offensive that retook Kharkiv Oblast and threatened to capture northern Luhansk Oblast as well. Now with RF greatly depleted in the Battle for Bakhmut, Russia will need more troops if it is to carry on this war. But Putin is afraid of the general population’s reaction towards the last mobilization in September and has again decided to try for a volunteer recruitment campaign instead. It will unlikely prove successful and will force him to launch another general mobilization by summer if it intends to continue this war.
Russia’s planned urban warfare attack on Bakhmut as RF approach the center of the city may have had a serious setback. A copy of their military manual for the newly created Russian urban warfare assault detachment has reportedly fallen into the hands of UAF. But if this were true, why would Ukraine announce its capture. Would it not be wiser to keep that knowledge secret and use it against the invading forces? The most plausible reason for making such a claim is a bluff to instill fear and caution, maybe even an abandonment of the plan.
The Russian milblogger community is abuzz over the appalling conditions of RF in Ukraine. Although these are only unverifiable opinions, the shear number of them is telling. Russian medics are refusing to risk their lives in treating Russian soldiers on the frontline, forcing RF to carry their wounded miles away from the frontlines. RF have been seen only carrying firearms and shovels. RF are without optical equipment due to the failure of the R-MoD honoring a contract with a company to produce such equipment. And RF on reconnaissance and sabotage efforts are using unreliable trucks instead of jeeps to
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Video footage was published of a Ukrainian prisoner of war being executed for saying “Glory To Ukraine”. Ukrainian officials released the video upon calling for war crime investigations against Russia. First Lady Olena Zelenska announced the investigation of RF rapes of 171 Ukrainian civilians including 39 cases against male victims and 13 against children. All in all, there are now 2651 war crime cases against Ukrainian children by RF filed. 462 Ukrainian children have been killed in this war with another 931 wounded. 16,000 children have been forcibly relocated to Russia, with only 307 returned.
Occupation authorities have begun rebuilding housing in Mariupol. 2800 apartment buildings are to be rebuilt and 47 high-rise buildings.
Russia has allocated $13.2 million to build mobile hospitals in occupied Zaporizhia due to the lack of facilities. With salaries of only $450 a month, it is hard to find the doctors to serve in these hospitals.
Other News
Russia launched thirteen military drones from Southern Ukraine, but all of them were shot down before hitting targets.
International Support
Part of the $400 million military aid announced by the U.S. last Friday will include bridges that that fold out from armored vehicles to allow a counter-offensive over rivers more easily. Ten Ukrainian pilots are being trained in the U.S. in flying F-16 aircraft, although no such aircraft have yet been promised to Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.