UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
It has been confirmed that UAF made a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut which was quickly occupied by RF.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF have increased the number of attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but with the exception of some geolocated footage confirming a marginal advance northwest of Kreminna, UAF held their ground and repelled all assaults. Geolocated footage shows UAF destroying five Russian tanks near Chervonopopivka (4 miles N of Kreminna).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
If RF were successful in taking Bakhmut, what might their next move be. They would have only two choices, as they would for sure not have enough forces to attempt both. They will either push more west on the T0504 highway toward Kostiantynivka (12.5 miles W of Bakhmut) or the more difficult route northwest towards the biggest prize of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk (25 miles NW of Bakhmut). Both routes would be heavily defended by UAF with multiple supply routes and would be highly costly. And the cost of just taking Bakhmut has been so high, that most likely the Russian second offensive would culminate anyway. And RF lack mechanized units which would be needed to push forward down the roads.
Bakhmut – UAF conducted a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut across the Bakhmutivka River on Monday. Geolocated footage shows that RF have moved into that area and most likely have reached the eastern banks of the river. But UAF are digging into the center and western portions of the city.
Avdiivka – RF have been trying to take Avdiivka since the summer of 2022 without any success. They continue their assaults and are attempting to move on Krasnohorivka (18 miles SW) in a strategy to continue moving north to cut off Avdiivka’s main supply route the E50 highway. But they have had no success in that endeavor either.
Marinka – No confirmed gains on the ground in Marinka.
Vuhledar – There were no confirmed RF assaults in the region.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RS reported that RF repelled a UAF offensive to take the Velykyi Potemkin Island in the Dnipro River in Kherson city. RF are continuing to build their defenses in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter offensive in the spring.
Russian Mobilization and Morale
Russia is already having difficulty in its campaign to recruit volunteers for the military as the responsibilities are given to the regional governments, but they are unwilling to recruit as they are concerned about the conditions and lack of training their citizens will endure. Most regional governments have shut down their recruiting centers until these issues are addressed.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu addressed the nation with the same old talking points justifying the Russian attack on Ukraine and claimed that the deaths of UAF increased by 40% in February over the month before. He also described the military reforms under way to make life better for the soldiers fighting in Ukraine in order to encourage Russian to volunteer to join the war effort.
The Wagner Group has lowered their medical standards in order to broaden their recruitment pool.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation forces are finding it difficult to recruit employees for their law enforcement vacancies. Russia is being forced to deploy police from Russia proper to meet the demand.
The Kherson Election Commission met for the first time to prepare for elections on September 10 even though Russia only controls half of the Kherson region.
Russia is not treating civilians in the occupied regions as full citizens of Russia, still requiring them to fill out “foreign migration” cards if they travel to Russia.
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko finally confirmed that a Russian A-50 early warning and control plane was attacked on February 26 but only endured minor damage which was being repaired. Russia flew in another A-50 plane while it was under maintenance. Lukashenko denied that the attack was led by the U.S. CIA assisted by 20 Belarusian partisans.
Other News
Russia exchange 130 Ukrainian POWs for 90 Russian POWs on Tuesday. 87 of the Ukrainian POWs were heroes defending Mariupol.
A recent poll shows that Russian are split over how they feel about those citizens of theirs who fled Russia during the last general mobilization to avoid conscription. A little over half, 51%, had negative feelings towards them. 10% were proud of them. The other 39% were indifferent.
International Support
Swiss prosecutors have charged four bankers of helping hide funds for the Russian government in order to bypass international sanctions. All four bankers are employees of the Swiss branch of the Russian bank Gazprombank. The bank is accused of allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin, who only has an official salary of $100,000 a year, hide over $50 million in their bank.
U2 and The Rolling Stones are putting together a “Live-Aid” style concert in support of Ukraine which will include other British artists such as Paul McCartney and Adele.
Poland delivered four Leopard tanks to Ukraine in February, and this week plan to deliver the other ten they promised.
UAF have conducted attacks on RF in Mariupol even though that is out of range of any weapon system that was known Ukraine had in its possession. That puzzle has now been solved with the U.S. announcing they had provided Ukraine with Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) precision-guided bombs.
EU Defense Ministers have gathered in Stockholm over the next two days to discuss military assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov is also at that meeting.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.