UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF still have the initiative but made only limited advancements on Thursday along the front lines.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The only confirmed limited advance by RF was southeast of Bilohorivka (6 miles south of Kreminna).
RF continue to build up fortifications on the Russian side of the Ukraine/Russia border in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts to pin down UAF to defend the border and not join other areas of the frontline.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The Wagner Group is the main RF attacking Bakhmut and they still hold the initiative. The greatly outnumber UAF defending Bakhmut, but their casualty rate is high. UAF are remaining to defend because of this wanting to knock down the RF numbers in preparation for the coming Spring Offensive. 35 conflicts were fought in and around Bakhmut on Thursday. Geolocated footage does confirm that some RF have crossed the Bakhmutivka River with small arms. RS also claim that RF have completely cleared out the AZOM factory complex.
Avdiivka – There are no confirmed changes on the ground around Avdiivka. RS claimed to have advance from Orlivka to threaten UAF supply routes. RS are mixed on whether RF have captured Novobakhmutivka (7.5 miles NE) with some saying they have, and others saying they have not. Some RS reported that RF attacked UAF in Kamianka (3 miles NE) which refutes their claim a few days ago that they had captured Kamianka.
Marinka – UAF continue to hold their ground in Marinka.
Vuhledar – There was no confirmed RF assault around Vuhledar region.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
UGS reported that RF have retreated from Nova Kakhovka, but that has not been confirmed. But UAF have established other footholds on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. RS also admit that UAF have made some limited advances on the Zaporizhian defense line capturing half of Novodanylivka.
RF conducted routine shelling in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
Russian Military and Mobilization
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is conducting an information operation against his own side. On one side of his mouth, he is praising the R-MoD, and on the other admitting that the Wagner Group will not be able to capture Bakhmut as there are too many UAF on the sideline ready to start a massive counteroffensive. He is trying to get the R-MoD to send him more weapons. There are also rumors that Prigozhin is planning on taking his Wagner Group forces back to Africa, but he has denied those rumors.
Having been unsuccessful in breaking the will of the Ukrainian people by bombing residential and energy infrastructures, RF are shifting their strategy to focus their missile attacks on UAF positions. But they only have 15% of their stock left and can only produce 20-30 missiles a month. So they have had to greatly reduce their frequency of missile attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin created two new military honors “For Bravery” that Russia can award to soldiers, including foreigners. This is designed to aid Russia in recruiting mercenaries from other countries.
Russia loses 150 tanks each month and can only produce 20 tanks a month.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Seventeen Ukrainian children that were kidnapped by the Russians have been returned to Ukraine. It is not known how the children were able to return. But the children described how Ukrainian children are beaten by the Russian children camp employees.
Ukrainian citizens who were still in Bakhmut areas captured by RF have been deported to filtration camps within Russia.
Ukrainian partisans attacked a law enforcement officer with a car bomb who was injured but stable.
Belarus
Most RF being trained in Belarus have been redeployed back to Russia. The number of RF in Belarus is now 4200, down from 12,000 at the end of 2022. Satellite images of the main Russian training ground in Brest shows it to be completely empty.
Belarus announced the completion of a new Belarusian air defense regiment equipped with S-300 air defense systems deployed near Brest.
Belarusian forces continue conducting exercises in Belarus.
International Support
Slovakia delivered 4 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine on Thursday. The other six promised will be delivered over the next few weeks.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.