UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF captured the Bakhmut city administration and raised the Russian flag among its ruins claiming the legal control over Bakhmut. But it seems that UAF have gained the initiative in Eastern Ukraine recapturing lost territory since the Russian Winter Offensive began.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with UAF making the only confirmed advance on Monday southwest of Chervonopopivka (3 miles NW of Kreminna). The heaviest fighting continues over Bilohorivka which is the hinge between the Eastern Ukraine Battle and the Donetsk Oblast Battle. Even though RF greatly outnumber UAF in the fight over Bilohorivka, UAF have held their position during the whole Russian Winter Offensive. A Russian tank was destroyed in fighting on Monday. But RF are still committed to this offensive and as of Saturday have begun using TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS for the first time.
UAF also recaptured strategic positions they had lost near Verkhnokamyanske (5 miles E of Siversk).
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF have finally taken the Bakhmut city administration building, which is in ruins, and have raised the Russian flag over the city on Sunday. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin made the photo op of raising the Russian flag. But UAF continue to fight on for the western half of the city.
Avdiivka
There was no confirmed progress for either side in the Battle for Avdiivka on Monday. UAS did claim to have pushed RF back from unspecified locations and reoccupied those newly captured positions. But this has not been confirmed.
Vuhledar
No confirmed RF assaults were made in the region around Vuhledar on Monday.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Satellite images indicate that Russia is highly concerned about a potential Ukrainian threat to occupied Crimea. Russia is erecting defensive lines along key ground lines of communication and logistic nodes throughout Crimea. Russia still is struggling with fully opening the Kerch Strait Bridge after it was damaged by Ukraine last year connecting Russia directly with Crimea and is experiencing traffic jams of up to 1.5 miles long.
UAF struck the railway depot in Melitopol for the third time on Monday in preparation for their Spring Counter Offensive.
RF continue to shell Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia Oblasts daily, but at half the rate from the weeks prior. RF also conducted an airstrike against UAF positions near Orikhiv.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday establishing a state fund to support military personnel serving in Ukraine and their families since the invasion began.
At least four cases of sabotage have occurred within Russia in opposition to the war in Ukraine over the last two days.
The Russian security service continues to work to prevent Russian elites and government officials from fleeing Russia. They are approaching such people and demanding that they turn over their passports or be forced to resign from their companies or government positions.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian partisans exploded a car bomb in the center of Melitopol severely injuring Russian collaborator Maksim Zubarev who was the former mayor of Yakymivka (9.5 miles SW of Melitopol). Melitopol has become the center of partisan activity and local Russian occupation authorities are calling for the establishment of the death penalty for such Ukrainian patriots.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a package of eight laws on Monday establishing Russian courts in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Belarus
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has ordered a combat readiness check for Belarusian forces. The check will be to determine whether the commanders of each unit can manage subordinate units and subunits.
Four Russian AN-124 military aircraft have arrived at Gomel airport carrying a large payload of Russian missiles. A total of seven such aircrafts have landed over the last ten days.
The Belarusian State Security Committee announced on Monday that the suspect detained for the attack on Russian aircraft at the Machulishchy Airfield will be facing the death penalty.
Other News
The assassination of prominent Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin is the main chatter all over the internet in Russia. Russia is pushing the narrative that Ukrainian special forces allied with Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in the attack. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs confirmed that the statue handed to Fomin as a gift while he was speaking on stage was the explosive device and Daria Trepova, who handed him the statue, had been arrested. A transcript of her interrogation was released, and she did not answer on camera whether she knew the sculpture contained explosives. There was a rumor that Russian authorities knew about the attack in advance, but that is not likely as the response from the government is very disjointed suggesting that they were caught by surprise. The motive is difficult as Fomin, who was a big fundraiser for the war effort, was also known for reporting fairly for both sides in the conflict.
Residential neighborhoods in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts were hit on Sunday killing eight civilians.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.