UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
According to the UGS, Russia launched 19 air strikes and 30 rocket attacks throughout Ukraine, causing civilian casualties in Slovyansk. There was a total of 49 ground assaults. RF continue to concentrate on the drive to Lyman and the capture of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. But only marginal gains were made in Bakhmut on Friday.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Both RS and UAS reported that all Russian assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line were unsuccessful on Friday. UAF focused on targeting rear areas in Luhansk Oblast. UAF fired HIMARS against Russian position near Rubizhne (4 miles east of Kreminna) and Troitske (33 miles NE of Kupyansk) in preparation of the coming Counteroffensive.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF made some marginal gains in Bakhmut on Friday in the northern and southern portions of the city. RS reported that Rose Alley Park in the north was cleared of UAF, and that RF moved a little past the railway tracks from the east. Geolocated footage shows that RF do not control the T0504 Highway within the city of Bakhmut as they had previously claimed. This is the main supply route for UAF in Bakhmut.
Avdiivka/Marinka
Although RF made no confirmed advances on the ground towards Avdiivka, they did make some gains to the southwest moving to the eastern outskirts of Nevelske (5 miles W of Donetsk city) and retaking lost positions in Pervomaiske (5 miles NW of Donetsk city).
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
There were no confirmed RF assaults in Western Donetsk although RS claim that RF captured Vremivka (23 miles W).
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
UAF fired rockets on a munition depot near Melitopol. RF continue their daily shelling west of Hulayipole and in Kherson Oblast.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi stated that the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant continues to dangerously depend on a single power line and reported that shelling continues near that power line (although he was careful not to blame either side in the conflict). The Kakhovka reservoir has dropped to only two meters above the minimum required to cool the nuclear reactors.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
One of the good news that came out of the Pentagon leaks that were a betrayal of Ukraine is that the Russian special forces, SPETSNAZ, have lost at least 90% of their fighting force with only 125 of their initial 900 servicemen still active in the fight against Ukraine. Russia’s special forces are mostly made up of new recruits now and thus are no longer “special”.
The Russian State Duma has created a committee to investigate how to stop Russians who have fled the country to avoid conscription can be prevented from benefitting financially from business activity they are attempting from abroad. Some ideas are withholding royalty payments, copyright protection, and advertising revenue. They are even considering confiscating property owned by those who have fled.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested two Crimean Tatars who are members of an outlawed Tatar resistance organization.
Two suspected Ukrainian partisans were arrested from conducting the attack on Mariupol occupation police chief Mikhail Moskvin on March 27.
Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s’ Rights Maria Lvova-Belova claimed that there is a delay in returning Ukrainian children from Russia back to Ukraine. She continues to claim that the children deported to Russia were done by permission of their Ukrainian parents to get away from the war.
Candidates are lining up for the local elections in the occupied territories to be held in September.
Other News
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu will meet with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu in Moscow from April 16-18. The announcement was an attempt to portray Russia as an equal defense partner with China, but Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Qin Gang knocked the legs out from under the announcement by making his own public statement that China will not sell weapons to Russia or even items that have a dual civilian and military use emphasizing there are limits to what Russia has claimed was a “no limit” partnership between Russia and China. In a bid to show China that Russia can be an important ally considering China’s policy on Taiwan, Russia announced their Russian Pacific Fleet exercises. It also sends a signal to Japan to rethink their plans to assist Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is setting the conditions for what he believes will be a successful Ukrainian Counteroffensive. He is concerned that many in the Russian anti-war faction will use this coming defeat to push for a peace agreement. Prigozhin argues that Russia must not accept defeat but push on because now Ukraine is united against Russia and is more of a threat now if it is allowed to exist.
After seeing a modest growth of 3.2% in 2021, the Ukrainian economy was crushed by the Russian invasion contracting by 29.1% in 2022. The hardest it sector was construction down two-thirds from the previous year. 50% of Ukraine’s energy sector was destroyed by Russian missile attacks.
The deal negotiated by Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine to allow Ukrainian grain exports is set to expire this coming Tuesday. Russia is threatening not to extend the deal unless sanctions against their shipping, insurance, and banks are lifted.
France is blocking the delivery of ammunition from the EU demanding that they be reimbursed for ammunition they have delivered to Ukraine, even for air defense systems they gave to Ukraine that Ukraine did not even request. Sounds like China made some demands on France during President Macron’s visit to China last week to improve trade between France and China.
International Support
In violation of the US agreement in hosting the headquarters of the United Nations in New York, US officials have denied visas to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the rest of the Russian delegation to the upcoming meeting of the UN Security Council meeting. Russia is confident that US President Joe Biden will cave under Russian pressure and grant the visas.
Germany gave permission to Poland to deliver five MiG-29s that Poland had purchased from Germany in 2003 in which Germany came into possession when East Germany merged with Germany in 1990.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.