Day 503 (July 11, 2023)

It was a difficult day for Ukraine as Russia attempted to send a message to world leaders gathering in Vilnius, Lithuania for the first day of the NATO summit. Russia launched several ground and air attacks throughout Ukraine in hopes of demonstrating that Ukraine cannot stand up against the might of Russia. But Ukraine, as usual, held its ground. Russia only managed to advance a mile (1.5 km) towards Lyman on the Svatove-Kreminna Line reaching the outskirts of Torske. Forced to be on the defense on several fronts, Ukraine was only able to advance towards Robotyne on the Zaporizhian Line and took some more high ground around Bakhmut and Klishchiivka.

Russia also launched another large missile and drone attack. Fifteen drones were launched against Kyiv, but only four got through the air defense system. The Odesa port was also a main target, but all enemy weapons were shot down. Russia was hoping to destroy the ability of Ukraine in exporting its grain to a starving world as the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Deal is only a week away. Overall, Ukraine was able to shoot down 28 drones before they hit their targets. Russia also conducted 54 airstrikes, 38 rocket attacks, and fired artillery on more than 70 locations along the front lines. The most notable attack was against a humanitarian aid center in Kherson where seven civilians were killed, including an eight-year-old child. Another woman was killed by rocket fire on her village of Sofiivka.

The attempt to rattle NATO backfired though. France announced they will supply Ukraine with long-range missiles and the UK announced a new $65 million package of military assistant including ammunition and 70 infantry fighting vehicles. Germany promised to provide Ukraine with two more Patriot air defense systems, 40 infantry fighting vehicles, 25 Leopard tanks, and five armored vehicles. And eleven nations have come together to offer Ukrainian pilots training in the use of F-16 fighters, although no country has yet promised to provide such fighters to Ukraine.

NATO adopted a package of three elements concerning the eventual membership of Ukraine in NATO. The first was a pledge to continue training Ukrainian forces to make the transition from Soviet to NATO standards in military training and doctrines. The second was the creation of a Ukraine-NATO Council where Ukraine and NATO will meet as equals. And finally, NATO waived the condition of Ukraine to fulfill a Membership Action Plan which will expedite Ukraine’s membership in NATO after the war is concluded.

But Ukraine did not get the green light for becoming a NATO member state as they had hoped. Although they were told that they would eventually become a member, Ukraine was hoping for a timeline. Instead, NATO said that Ukraine would become a member “when allies agree, and conditions are met” without any specifics on what those “conditions” might be. This will provide hope that Russia will be able to negotiate a deal where Ukraine never meets those conditions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was livid in his criticism of NATO for not giving a clear timeline but conceded that he would still attend the NATO summit.

The biggest news at the NATO summit was the eleventh-hour talks that led to Turkey agreeing to allow Sweden to join NATO. Turkey had surprised the world by its demand that the EU restart talks on admitting Turkey into the EU as its condition to approve Sweden to join NATO. Although Turkey did not get that green light, the EU did promise to increase trade and lower visa restrictions for Turkey.

Ukraine conducted several airstrikes of its own against Russian troop positions. Ukraine is targeting former recreation centers in occupied areas that are being used as military barracks. Such targets in Skadovsk and Tokmak were included. But the most damaging attack was on the Duna Hotel in occupied Berdyansk which houses the local Russian military command. The Russian Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed in the attack.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 12: ‘Berdyansk Bunker Goes Boom’

Former Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhysky was shot dead in Krasnodar, Russia during his morning run. He was serving at the deputy head of the department of mobilization at the time and had a habit of posting his daily running routes on social media.

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