Day 507 (July 15, 2023)

Ukraine continues its counteroffensive on three sectors towards Bakhmut, Berdyansk, and Melitopol with limited gains made today. Even in the drive to liberate Bakhmut, Ukraine maintains the initiative even though Russia is sending reinforcements every day, mostly from the Luhansk Line (Kupyansk – Kreminna), the only sector where Russia continues to make advances.

In the battle to liberate Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces continue their fight to first liberate Klishchiivka directly to the south of Bakhmut. Although no progress was made yesterday toward Klishchiivka, Ukrainian forces were able to cross the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal and move south of Klishchiivka towards Andriivka. Ukrainian forces are also advancing on Kurdyumivka even farther south. But the best news for Ukraine was the firing of Russian Major General Vladimir Selivertsov, the commander of Russia’s strongest forces defending the Bakhmut Sector, for unknown reasons. Most likely, like Major General Ivan Popov who was fired a few days earlier for insubordination, Selivertsov also threatened to take the miserable conditions of his troops directly to the attention of President Putin. This is showing a pattern that Putin is more focused on staying in power than in defeating Ukraine. The two strongest Russian commanders leading the defense against the Ukraine counteroffensive, have now been fired and will be replaced with less qualified commanders. Putin must know he has lost this war, as U.S. President Joe Biden proclaimed at the NATO summit, and is now maneuvering to stay in power afraid of a military mutiny. Towards Berdyansk, Ukrainian forces finally broke through the Russian defense at Hrushevatyi Gully. And towards Melitopol, Ukrainian forces continue their slow march on Robotyne.

Russian forces have entered Novoselivske on the Luhansk Line taking the train station. The settlement is now under contest. Russian forces are also clearing the forests south of Novoselivske of Ukrainian troops. Russian troops also made some limited advances towards Torske, a settlement they had falsely claimed to have captured earlier. But as Russia is being forced to move troops from this theater to defend Bakhmut, Ukraine should be able to hold them on the Luhansk Line.

Wagner Group forces have begun arriving in Belarus under the pardon agreement brokered between Yevgeny Prigozhin and President Putin.

Metropolitan Pavel, the leader of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), has been moved from house arrest to detention. The UOC-MP is ruled by the Russian Orthodox Church, and Metropolitan Pavel has been charged with aiding Russia in the war with Ukraine. He was moved to detention as he continued to use his house arrest to call on his followers to support Russia in this war.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol made a surprise visit to Kyiv and visited the settlement of Bucha where the first atrocities of Russia were revealed. South Korea has a policy of not supplying arms to nations in conflict but did pledge $150 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Korea has supplied Ukraine with tanks and weaponry indirectly through Poland though.

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