Summary: There were no confirmed advances by either side along the frontlines. 83 countries have gathered to support Ukraine’s Peace Plan.
Human Cost Of The War
Ten Ukrainian civilians were injured in Russian attacks during the day.
- A suicide drone struck a fire station in Stanislav, Kherson Oblast, injuring four firefighters. They suffered concussions and cranial injuries, but all four refused hospitalizations after first aid was administered on the spot.
- Russia fired 28 rounds of artillery at residential neighborhoods and port facilities in Kherson injuring six civilians. One building was caught on fire and first responders were able to put it out and recover one injured man in the rubble.
Ukraine General Staff reported that Russian troops suffered 840 casualties during fighting today.
Situation On The Ground
Military pundits predict that Russia will start a new major offensive as soon as the ground freezes, but also add that this offensive is likely not to be successful and will cost many Russian lives. There are many factors. Although ground freezing will allow for use of mechanized weapons, Russia is currently low on that after losing much equipment in their failed attempt to take Avdiivka so far. Ukraine has plenty of military drones which would target expensive Russian mechanized units. Freezing weather will take away Russia’s air support as most planes cannot operate in such freezing weather effectively. But, since Russia is more concerned about keeping the initiative rather than lives and equipment, as the presidential elections are nearing, Russia will probably go ahead and launch the Winter Offensive.
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances in the sector.
Siversky Donets Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Siversk – A Russian source claims that Russian forces have withdrawn from the outskirts of Spirne (8 miles SE of Siversk), but this has not been confirmed.
Chasiv Yar (Around Bakhmut) – Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances. But Russia has increased their troop strength in the area by 80,000.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and to advance from occupied Marinka
Avdiivka – There were no confirmed advances around Avdiivka, but Russian sources claimed Russian forces made some marginal advances just northwest of Avdiivka in the waste heap and Coke Plant, but neither of these claims have been confirmed.
Novomykhailivka – Russian sources claim that Russian forces advanced near Novomykhailivka, but this has not been confirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Robotyne
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed advances in the sector. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have advanced towards Robotyne, Kamianske, and southwest of Verbove, but none of these claims have been confirmed.
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Krynky
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances in the sector.
Ukraine News
Ukraine shot down two Russian military planes. The first was one of a dozen IL-22m air command center planes that was struck at 21:00 on Saturday evening. The pilot was heard calling for fire crew, so it is assumed he was able to land the plane. Then ten minutes later Ukraine struck one of eight A-50 early warning radar planes which carry a crew of 15. Another pilot radioed he saw an explosion as the plane plummeted to the earth. These A-50 planes are very expensive, and Russia is not able to replace them. Because of this, Russia keeps them out of range of Ukrainian weapons, so this was an important victory. Together it represents a loss of $630 million in equipment.
Russia launched missiles and drones at various targets throughout Ukraine. Two missiles destroying several grain silos in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. There were no casualties.
President Zelensky announced that he will soon be sharing some good news about Ukraine’s air defense systems without going into detail. It is assumed that Ukraine is about to receive some much-needed air defense systems from European countries.
Romanian farmers returned to blockade the Siret border crossing between Romania and Ukraine after ending their blockade on Saturday.
Ukraine Ally Support
Representatives from 83 countries gathered in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss the implementation of Ukraine’s Peace Formula. This is an increase from the 66 countries that had gathered last month.
Ukraine’s representative to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland also met with Romanian State Secretary Julian Fota to discuss a bilateral security guarantee pursuant to the G7’s July 2023 joint declaration of support for Ukraine. So far, only the UK has signed such an agreement.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)