Summary: Russian forces completed a very costly three-day offensive to capture a strategic position in the Donetsk theater. Russian forces are also moving deeper into Bohdanivka and may have capture Vesele in the Siversky-Donetsk theater.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 33 military drones and two missiles towards Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 of the drones. An unspecified number of the other drones missed their targets. Russia has learned much from their daily missile strikes making it more and more difficult for Ukraine to intercept their missiles. Ukraine needs more Western support in overcoming these improvements. Two Ukrainian civilians were killed and three injured in Russian attacks during the day.
- The two Russian missiles struck a school in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, killing one civilian and injuring another.
- Drones struck a multi-story apartment building in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, killed one civilian and injured two others.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed nor claimed advances in the sector.
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Siversk – Russian sources claim that Russian forces have captured Vesele (9 miles S of Siversk), but this has not been confirmed. If true, this would be a serious blow to Ukraine’s defense as Vesele controls the T0513 Highway between Siversk and Bakhmut. It will give Russian forces an easy access to drive north against Siversk.
Chasiv Yar – Russian forces have advanced within the residential northern suburbs of Bohdanivka (4.5 miles W of Bakhmut). The capture of Bohdanivka in conjunction with the capture of Khromove would give Russia control over the O0506 Highway which leads to Chasiv Yar.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and to advance from occupied Marinka
Pervomaiske – Russian forces held a large offensive operation to capture an important position east of Nevelske (2.5 miles S of Pervomaiske) but at a great loss losing 41 armored vehicles and 17 tanks over the last three days.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Recapture Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Staromaiorske – It was confirmed that Russian forces have advanced southeast of Rivnopil (5 miles NW of Staromaiorske) in the past.
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Krynky
Positional fighting continues but there were no confirmed advances in the sector. Russian sources claim that Russian forces made a partial advance into Krynky, but that has not been confirmed. Ukrainian forces made a confirmed hit on a Russian electronic warfare system in Nova Kakhovka.
Ukraine News
Ukraine launched a successful drone attack on military facilities near St. Petersburg alarming Russia that their second city is within striking range of Ukrainian drones now. A $350 drone built by a civilian struck an oil depot.
Ukrainian partisans in Crimea discovered a sunken Russian corvette in Sevastopol and satellite imagery has confirmed their discovery. It was not known that Ukraine had sunk the ship during attacks in late December 2023.
A recent survey of Ukrainian refugees reported that 65% of them plan to return to Ukraine, which is down from 80% six months ago.
Ukraine released a report showing that there are 2500 foreign components in Russian missiles, including American microchips, proving that Russia is getting around the Western sanctions meant to slow down their military production.
Ukraine Ally Support
France announced the launching of the “Artillery For Ukraine” coalition, the fifth “capability” coalition within the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine. This coalition will provide Ukraine with the artillery they need in the short term and assist Ukraine in building their own artillery production infrastructure for the long term. The other four “capability” coalitions that already exist are air defense, armored vehicles, air force capabilities, and maritime security. As part of this coalition, France will immediately provide six artillery systems and 50 glide bombs to Ukraine in the next few weeks. Russian artillery exceeds Ukrainian fire at ratios of ten-to-one. Ukraine also signed an order to purchase 78 Caesar howitzers from French military companies to be delivered by the beginning of 2025.
The European Union Parliament endorsed an official condemnation of Hungary for rejecting military aid to Ukraine. It also approved a nonbinding resolution calling on EU members to open investigations on Hungary to determine whether Hungary has violated EU values. This is the first step of a very long process necessary to suspend Hungary’s voting rights. The idea is to put pressure on Hungary to comply with EU support of Ukraine.
Poland announced that they are beefing up their production of artillery to supply Ukraine.
The US slapped sanctions against the United Arab Emirate shipping company Hennesea Holdings for the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian crude oil. The sanctions include the confiscation of property owned by the company in the US and a ban from doing business on US soil including port of calls.
US President Joe Biden made some concessions on the US southern border in hopes that will be enough to meet Republican demands before they consider renewing military support of Ukraine.
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia reported about widespread GPS disruptions which may be a result of attacks by Russian electronic warfare. The four NATO countries have stated that if true, they consider this an attack on their countries which would require a response by NATO.
Russia News
Russia continues their crypto-mobilization efforts targeting naturalized migrants. At one ceremony today, Russian officials conscripted 15 foreigners right after their citizenship ceremony.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia will not change their goals of annexing five Ukrainian territories, replacing the government of Ukraine with one of their choosing, and dismantling the Ukrainian military. He blamed the West for the continuation of the war and stated that it can only end when the West accepts Russia’s ultimatums. Russia will not negotiate peace with Ukraine, he said, because it is not a legitimate country. Russia will only conduct peace talks with the West.
Russia and the Central African Republic are in discussion of opening a Russian military base in this central African nation.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)