Summary: Russia is intensifying its offensives and has made marginal gains.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia intensified its military operations in Ukraine, deploying seven drones and one missile, carrying out 23 airstrikes, and launching 59 rocket system attacks on various targets. Additionally, Russian forces bombarded 110 Ukrainian communities with artillery. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted four drones. These aggressive actions resulted in civilian casualties: a 50-year-old woman was killed in her Kherson home, and a teenager sustained shrapnel injuries and is receiving hospital treatment.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Russian forces have initiated a significant offensive towards Krokhmalne and Tabaivka, located 26 miles southeast of Kupyansk. Despite confirmed progress in the region, their reported advance past the railway line east of Tabaivka remains unverified. Ukrainian officials acknowledge the offensive’s commencement and report the destruction of 13 tanks and 14 infantry fighting vehicles on the first day of combat. Concurrently, Ukrainian troops have achieved tactical successes, repelling Russian forces from Berestove, a strategic location 7 miles south of Tabaivka.
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Siversk – Russian forces have escalated their efforts to seize control of the eastern bank of the Zherebets River. While there are no confirmed territorial gains, Russian claims suggest a push forward by approximately 1000 feet towards Bilohorivka, which is situated 7.5 miles northeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar – Russian forces reported neither confirmed nor alleged territorial gains in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Current Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, and to advance from occupied Marinka
Positional skirmishes are ongoing, yet no significant territorial gains have been confirmed in this sector. However, Russian forces have asserted a minor progression on the southeastern fringes of Avdiivka, a claim corroborated by one Ukrainian soldier who noted a slight incursion into the residential district of the area. Additionally, Russian troops have claimed territorial advancements near Stepove, located 5 miles northwest of Avdiivka, and around Pervomaiske.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Recapture Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Positional fighting persists, yet there have been no confirmed or reported advances in the sector.
Left Bank Front – Initiative Russia – Current Target: Recapture Krynky
Positional skirmishes are ongoing without any confirmed or reported territorial changes in the sector. However, there has been a notable increase in Russian military presence, with their forces now quadrupling the number of Ukrainian troops in the area.
Ukraine News
U.S. officials are advocating for Ukraine to adopt an “active defense” strategy throughout 2024 to bolster and modernize their forces in preparation for a significant counteroffensive in 2025. However, Ukrainian military leaders are voicing concerns that this approach may cede the strategic advantage to Russia, allowing them to dictate the conflict’s tempo and location in 2024, potentially leading to unnecessary depletion of resources and loss of lives. They contend that an “active defense” would still deplete military resources without guaranteeing the accumulation of firepower needed for the following year. Instead, Ukrainian commanders are in favor of persisting with their current “limited offense” tactics aimed at steadily diminishing Russian forces, reclaiming territory, and enhancing strategic positions, all while minimizing casualties and preserving equipment.
The Ukrainian government has committed $466 million to the construction of defensive fortifications along the frontlines.
President Zelensky extended an invitation to former President Donald Trump to visit Kyiv and discuss Trump’s assertion of being able to end the war with Russia within 24 hours. Zelensky expressed confidence that it would only take him 24 minutes to demonstrate to Trump that such a resolution is unfeasible without ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia, an option that Ukraine finds unacceptable.
The Kyiv City Council has declared the allocation of $13 million from the city budget for the procurement of military drones to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Mayor Vitali Klitschko stated that while these funds are budgeted, the actual financial contribution from the city is expected to exceed this amount significantly. In the previous year, Kyiv contributed $182 million towards military support.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported a grave violation, finding that Russia reinstalled mines on nuclear reactors—mines that the agency had previously compelled them to remove. This alarming discovery was made during an investigation into the cause of an eight-hour failure in the backup power systems, a failure that posed a significant risk to nuclear safety.
Ukraine Ally Support
NATO has commenced the Steadfast Defender 2024 military drills, involving all 31 member states along with Sweden. The focus of these exercises is to refine the deployment of troops from North America to Europe in response to aggression from a potential adversary. While not explicitly stated, the undertone of the exercises suggests preparation for a scenario where Russia might extend its activities beyond Ukraine. Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of the NATO military committee, has emphasized that not only is NATO gearing up for such a possibility, but European civilians should also mentally and practically prepare for potential conflict with Russia.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis issued a stern warning about the repercussions for Europe if Russia were to prevail. He urged European nations to recognize the conflict as “Europe’s war” and to increase their support for Ukraine rather than depending on the United States, whose support he implied might not be dependable. Landsbergis highlighted the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its defense in the face of the ongoing conflict.
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have reached a consensus to construct new defensive structures along their frontiers with Belarus and Russia, reflecting their growing concern that they could be the next targets of Russian military aggression.
Estonia has chosen not to renew the residency permit of Metropolitan Yevgeniy of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. This decision will compel him to leave Estonia and return to Russia by February 6. He has faced accusations of making public statements and taking actions that support Russian aggression.
In November 2023, the European Union commended Ukraine for achieving 90% of the reforms required for EU membership. The EU identified four crucial reforms that Ukraine needed to address. Since then, Ukraine has successfully implemented three of these reforms. Currently, the Verkhovna Rada is deliberating on a bill related to lobbying regulations, which, if passed, would accomplish the fourth and final reform.
Russia News
The Russian government has summoned the French Ambassador to Russia, Pierre Levy, to address the presence of French mercenaries found in the Kharkiv Oblast defending Ukraine. Russia has accused France of complicity in what it terms as “war crimes” allegedly carried out by Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs faced a blunder after releasing propaganda material aimed at portraying President Zelensky as an atheist. They published two photos: the first showed Zelensky with his arm around French President Emmanuel Macron, hand on Macron’s left shoulder. The second photo, intended as a close-up, displayed a tattoo on the hand that read, “There is no God.” However, the propaganda effort backfired when the original picture was included, revealing that it was actually a Ukrainian soldier with the tattoo who had his arm on Macron’s back, not Zelensky. This oversight exposed the inaccuracy of their claim.
A Chinese mercenary, currently engaged in combat on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, has circulated a video appealing to his compatriots to exert pressure on the Chinese government for his release from service. He disclosed in the video that he has fallen ill with a condition treatable under normal circumstances, but the medical facilities available to Russian frontline forces are not equipped to provide the necessary care. Despite reaching out for aid, his pleas were dismissed by Chinese officials, citing his autonomous decision to enter a contract with the Russian military.
An Ethiopian mercenary has shared a video alleging that he joined the Russian military under false pretenses. He claims he was promised Russian citizenship and assured he would not be deployed to the war in Ukraine. Contrary to these assurances, he states that within a month of enlistment, he found himself on the Ukrainian frontline without any proper training and was subsequently captured by Ukrainian forces.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)