Summary: Russia’s heaviest assaults are on the Sloboda Front to gain more territory after occupying Krokhmalne, and against the heavily Ukrainian fortified city of Avdiivka on the Donetsk Front.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues in all five sectors of the frontline daily. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors)
Russian forces are still claiming to have captured Tabaivka after recently seizing Krokhmalne and have now reached Kotlyarivka even further to the north of Krokhmalne. The goal is to capture the heights of Kyslivka (4.5 miles N of Krokhmalne) that overlooks a major railway line. Russian forces also claim to be advancing south of Krokhmalne towards Berestove. But apart from the capture of Krokhmalne, none of these claims have been confirmed.
Russian forces have advanced farther west of Kreminna to a field east of Yampolivka (12 miles NW of Kreminna) on the eastern shore of the Zherebets River.
Heavy fighting continues in and around Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have claimed that they have retaken their fortified position around the Tsarska Okhota restaurant just south of Avdiivka pushing Russian forces back from the outskirts of the city. Russian forces continue their attempts to encircle Avdiivka in the north and west. They claim to have advanced north of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka) and within the southeastern outskirts of Pervomaiske (7.5 miles SW of Avdiivka). None of these claims have been confirmed.
A Russian source claims that Ukrainian forces have advanced from Robotyne to the west, south, and east, pushing Russian forces back. This has not been confirmed.
Russian troops are finding it difficult to even form assault groups due to their heavy casualties. Russia has refused to send mechanized vehicles to this sector as they are needed elsewhere. This has resulted in infantry attacks without vehicle assistance resulting in heavy casualties. It is expected that Russia will have to conduct troop rotations soon if they hope to ever gain the initiative again and push Ukrainian forces back across the Dnipro River.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched eight drones and six missiles at civilian and infrastructure targets throughout eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down four of the drones and one of the missiles.
At least 5 Ukrainian civilians were injured today from Russian attacks:
- An 89-year-old woman in Mykhailivka, Kherson Oblast received abdominal injuries in an attack on her home.
- A 54-year-old man was taken to the hospital with a leg wound and other injuries when his home in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast was struck.
- A man and his 15-year-old son received head injuries, as did their neighbor, when their apartment building was hit at an undisclosed location in Donetsk Oblast.
- Eight communities along the border with Russia in Sumy Oblast came under attack 267 times during the day. No casualty reports have yet been reported.
Apartment building that was hit in unspecified region of Donetsk Oblast.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Army reported that Russian forces suffered 740 casualties in fighting today.
A video was recovered from a Russian assault in the Serebrianska Forest region near Kreminna which was recorded on a Russian tank operator’s iPhone. The video begins with the tank driver sticking out his tongue, presumably at Ukraine, as the assault begins. Ahead of the tank is an armored fighting vehicle full of Russian soldiers. It soon gets bad for the Russians as the armored vehicle comes under attack and the soldiers leap out. The tank then hits a mine and is disabled. The tank driver exits the tank and tries to flee as well. A drone is then sent in to finish off the Russian troops with the tank driver’s body shown at the end of the video. The video ends with Ukrainian soldiers who controlled the drone attack inappropriately having the last laugh.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian civil servants released their financial records for 2022 as required by law. Most focus was on the financial statement released by President Zelensky. His income has plummeted since becoming president of Ukraine. He was earning over a $0.5 million as an actor/comedian before running for president. His income dropped by 50% once he became president with most of his income coming from the seven apartments in eastern Ukraine he was renting. Russia’s invasion froze that rental income, and he is left with just his presidential salary of nearly $98,000 for 2022. He is the first president of Ukraine whose income did not soar upon taking office and has decreased by 80%.
Ukraine Ally Support
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visiting Washington D.C. to persuade Congress to pass the $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine. He warned that Ukraine is not the only concern as China is watching the west resolve to defend Ukraine as they contemplate an invasion of Taiwan.
The borders between Poland and Ukraine are back to normal after the trucker protests ended with 3000 trucks a day being processed.
Russia News
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin made it clear in a televised interview that there will be no negotiations for peace with Ukraine. The only way the war would end is if the West accepts all of Russia’s conditions – the annexation of the five currently occupied regions, the overthrow of the current Ukrainian government to be replaced by a pro-Russian leader approved by Russia, the complete demobilization of the Ukrainian military, and a constitutional proclamation of neutrality.
Russian government leaders are preparing the information space for Russia’s next invasion of Moldova. Moldova is pulling away from the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the successor of the Soviet Union, just as Ukraine had done earlier (although Ukraine never officially signed the CIS charter). Russia has already ended trade agreements with Moldova when they pulled out of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly in protest of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has created some economic problems in Moldova and an increase in unrest in the Russian-occupied region of Transnistria. Moldova is refusing to return to the negotiating table with Russia over the Transnistria issue while the war against Ukraine continues. Rumors are circulating that Moldova plans on withdrawing completely from the CIS by the end of 2024.
Russia Ally Support
Laszlo Toroczkai, the leader of Hungary’s far right Our Homeland political party, declared that the Zakarpattia region of Ukraine should be seized by Hungary if Russia is victorious in its war against Ukraine. This is the region in which we live.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)