Summary of the day: Ukraine’s air defense is at risk due to delayed Western aid, potentially leading to missile shortages. Ukrainian President Zelensky appointed Major General Anatoliy Barhilevych as Chief of the General Staff. New drone footage shows Russian execution of Ukrainian POWs, intensifying war crime concerns. Russian leadership continues to justify the war, blaming the West for a lack of peace negotiations. The Russian State Duma proposes a bill targeting ‘foreign agents,’ aiming to silence opposition. On the battlefield, Russian forces have advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka. Despite crackdowns, protests by families of mobilized Russian soldiers continue, and efforts to deport Ukrainian children from occupied areas are underway.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian military forces have made advancements south of Kreminna, with ongoing clashes along the strategic Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Recent geolocated footage from February 9 shows Russian progress on Bilohorivka’s eastern outskirts, roughly 7.5 miles (12km) south of Kreminna. The battlefront extends across several locations, including near Synkivka northeast of Kupyansk, and around Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Krokhmalne northwest of Svatove, as well as west and southwest of Kreminna near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova, and the Serebrianska forest. Additionally, fighting intensifies south of Kreminna near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka. According to Captain Ilya Yevlash, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces, the reduction in indirect fire from Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction is likely due to adverse weather conditions.
Russian forces made advancements near Bakhmut, amidst ongoing positional battles in the vicinity. Reports indicate that Russian troops moved through areas south of Bohdanivka, northwest of Bakhmut. Engagements have been reported in multiple sectors around Bakhmut, including to the northeast near Vyimka and Rozdolivka, northwest near Bohdanivka, west near Ivanivske, southwest near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, and south near Pivdenne and Shumy. This activity signals a heightened phase of conflict around the strategically significant area of Bakhmut.
Russian forces have made significant movements in Avdiivka, with confirmed advancements in the southern part of the city and reported progress in the northern areas. Geolocated footage from February 9 shows Russian troops advancing along key streets in southern Avdiivka and claims of further advancements from the southeastern part of the city have been made. While Russian milbloggers report advances in northern Avdiivka and near a northeastern quarry, these claims lack visual confirmation. Russian forces are reported to be close to a crucial Ukrainian communication line in Avdiivka, aligning with assessments of their territorial gains. Ongoing battles continue in areas northwest, near the Avdiivka Coke Plant, and southwest of Avdiivka, indicating sustained positional engagements around the city.
Russian forces have made advances west of Donetsk City, amidst ongoing conflicts west and southwest of the city reported. Claims from Russian milbloggers indicate progress in eastern Heorhiivka, though a Russian source suggests Ukrainian forces may have regained ground on Novomykhailivka’s southern outskirts, a claim yet to be visually confirmed. The area continues to see positional battles near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodiane. Despite limitations in manpower and materiel, Russian forces are reportedly gearing up for intensified assaults near Novomykhailivka, with movements from Solodke towards Vodiane and south towards Novomykhailivka, aiming to dislodge Ukrainian forces east of the Marinka-Vuhledar road. Additionally, Russian artillery operations have been noted near Heorhiivka.
The area along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border witnessed ongoing positional battles. Conflicts were reported south of Zolota Nyva, near Urozhaine and Staromayorske, southwest of Rivnopil, and north of Pryyutne, all southeast to southwest of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have been active in these areas, indicating a continued engagement in the region.
Positional battles persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with engagements reported near Robotyne, west of Verbove, and northeast of Robotyne near Novopokrovka. A claim by a Russian military blogger suggested that Ukrainian forces, advancing from Kamianske, northwest of Robotyne, made unspecified gains near Kopani and Robotyne.
Positional fighting was reported to continue on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, including areas near Krynky, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources.
Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense, reported that Russian patrol ships and electronic warfare systems successfully intercepted several Ukrainian naval drones aimed at Russian civilian transport ships in the southwestern Black Sea.
Human Cost Of The War
Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted and destroyed 40 out of 45 Shahed-type drones launched by Russia from Crimea, targeting various Ukrainian regions including Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kherson oblasts. Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, confirmed the successful neutralization of enemy drones approaching Kyiv during the nearly two-hour air alert. Additionally, Ukrainian forces intercepted 23 out of 31 drones launched from occupied Cape Chauda in Crimea and Kursk Oblast over Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts, with casualties reported in Kharkiv City and Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast, and damage to port infrastructure in Odesa City.
8 Ukrainian civilians were killed, and another 62 injured from Russian attacks over the last 24 hours.
- A tragic Russian drone attack in Kharkiv late on Feb. 9 claimed the lives of a district prosecutor named Olha Putiatina, her husband, and their three young children. The attack, which targeted a gas station, resulted in a devastating fire that engulfed 15 homes and claimed at least seven lives. Among the casualties were another couple, with their son providing a DNA sample for identification. The extreme heat from the fire made identifying one of the children’s bodies nearly impossible. The police confirmed the fire was caused by the detonation of three Shahed-type attack drones launched from Russia, and DNA samples are being used to confirm the identities of the victims. In addition, 57 people were injured in this attack.
- The northeastern Sumy Oblast of Ukraine experienced 28 attacks from Russian forces targeting eight communities. The assaults resulted in at least 150 explosions in the area, with communities such as Khotin, Krasnopillia, Bilopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Shalyhyne, Seredyna-Buda, and Druzhbivka being fired upon. Various weaponry including mortars, artillery, unguided aircraft missiles, and grenade launchers were utilized in the attacks, causing damage to private residences, a fire station, and a local enterprise building in Druzhbivka. Though no casualties were reported, these border settlements near the Ukraine-Russia border endure daily shelling, with residents facing multiple attacks per day.
- Russian forces attacked the village of Tokarivka, killing a 68-year-old woman and injuring her 43-year-old son. The son sustained an explosive injury and an abdominal wound, being hospitalized in serious condition. Prokudin noted the ongoing efforts by medical professionals to save his life.
- Consecutive waves of Russian Shahed-type drones struck Odesa region overnight. Despite Ukrainian air defenses successfully shooting down at least 21 drones, shrapnel and debris from the attacks injured four people, one of whom is in serious condition. Ukrainian defenses intercepted all nine drones from the initial wave of attacks and 12 from subsequent waves. The injured individuals, all employees of port facilities, were hospitalized. The attacks also caused damage to port facilities along the Danube River and other civilian infrastructure in and around the port city of Izmail.
Aftermath of Russian attack on Kharkiv
Ukraine News
Amidst delays in Western security assistance, Ukraine faces a critical shortage of air defense missiles, with current stocks predicted to be depleted by March 2024, as reported by The New York Times. Russian forces are exploiting this vulnerability by intensifying aerial operations, particularly in eastern Ukraine, and employing a combination of their own and foreign-supplied weaponry to strain Ukraine’s air defenses. This escalation poses a significant threat to Ukrainian forces and front-line cities, as the country struggles to sustain its defensive capabilities without prompt replenishment from Western allies.
Ukraine’s military leadership undergoes significant changes as President Zelensky appoints Major General Anatoliy Barhilevych as the new Chief of the General Staff, succeeding Lieutenant General Serhiy Shaptala. The reshuffle follows a series of reported disagreements within the military hierarchy and comes with new Deputy Commanders-in-Chief for innovation and unmanned systems, as well as three Brigadier Generals overseeing operations, logistics, and training. These appointments aim to inject “fresh energy” into Ukraine’s defense as it faces a critical juncture in the conflict.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has initiated criminal proceedings following the release of Russian drone footage dated February 9, which appears to show Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs in Klishchiivka, near Bakhmut. The video allegedly captures a Russian soldier fatally shooting a surrendering Ukrainian prisoner and using a grenade against another in a dugout. These actions constitute a breach of the Geneva Convention’s Article 41, which protects soldiers who are hors de combat.
A survey by Ukrainian polling agency Vox Populi reveals that one in four Ukrainian school students plans to move abroad after graduation. The study, commissioned by the charity Saved, polled 1,397 students aged 14 and older, 1,288 parents, and 1,141 teachers across Ukraine. While 53% of students aim to stay in Ukraine, 23% plan to relocate within the country, and 26% intend to move abroad, with 31% of urban students expressing this desire compared to 16% of rural students. Front-line regions rely heavily on online learning, with 81% of students affected. Despite challenges, 83% of teachers and 70% of parents remain optimistic about the future, but only 52% of students share this sentiment, with 24% feeling pessimistic. Gender differences are noted, with more girls seeking emotional support and fewer feeling calm compared to boys.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian pilots express high praise for American-made F-16 fighter jets, with training pilots in the U.S. and Europe commending the aircraft’s capabilities, according to the Ukrainian service of the Voice of America. Several Western allies, including the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway, have pledged to transfer F-16s to Ukraine, with an estimated total of up to 60 jets, despite their age of around 40 years.
Ukraine’s Allies
General Carsten Breuer, Germany’s highest-ranking military officer, has called for heightened military readiness, suggesting Germany should prepare for a possible conflict with Russia within five years. This statement aligns with concerns from NATO leaders regarding the underestimated risk of war with Russia. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and other NATO officials have echoed these sentiments, highlighting the potential targeting of Germany by Russian missiles in such a scenario. Breuer asserts that Russia could extend its aggression beyond Ukraine and emphasizes the need for Germany to bolster its support for Ukraine, increase its industrial capacity, and expand the Bundeswehr’s personnel numbers from 180,000 to over 200,000.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg cautioned against underestimating the potential for prolonged confrontation with Russia in an interview with Welt Am Sonntag, emphasizing the need for preparedness despite the West’s reluctance for war. Concerns within NATO regarding the alliance’s readiness for conflict have heightened amidst the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, with Lieutenant Admiral Rob Bauer suggesting civilians brace for the possibility of all-out war within the next 20 years. Stoltenberg warned of the ramifications of a Russian victory in Ukraine, urging NATO to bolster military capabilities and credible deterrence strategies to counter escalating tensions. He stressed the importance of matching Russia’s increasing war economy and called for NATO to expedite efforts to support Ukraine and replenish its own military stocks.
German media outlet Handelsblatt reported on Feb. 9 that Ukraine’s allies are considering shifting the format of the Ramstein summits to have NATO coordinate military aid instead of the U.S.
U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Washington, focusing their discussion on American support for Ukraine. U.S. aid, currently stalled in Congress due to Republican hesitation, was emphasized by both leaders as crucial for Ukraine’s defense. Amid ongoing delays, a Senate bill containing $60 billion in aid for Ukraine has recently made progress. Biden denounced the Republican obstruction as “close to criminal neglect,” warning of severe consequences for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Scholz echoed these concerns, highlighting the importance of U.S. funding for Ukraine’s defense.
Turkish F-16 fighter jets stationed in Romania were deployed following Russian drone strikes on Odesa Oblast, as confirmed by Romania’s Defense Ministry. The drone attacks targeted port infrastructure along the Danube River, resulting in injuries to four employees of port facilities. Romania’s jets, stationed near Fetesti, were tasked with reconnaissance operations in response to the attacks, with no unauthorized intrusions detected into Romanian airspace. Despite the strikes, no debris from downed drones was found on Romanian territory. Romania strongly condemned the assaults on Ukrainian port infrastructure, with President Klaus Iohannis announcing the installation of an anti-drone system near the Ukrainian border in October 2023 following repeated instances of debris falling into Romanian territory. Bucharest has implemented additional security measures in border areas, including the setup of bomb shelters and issuance of air raid warnings.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The occupation administration in Kherson Oblast reported that Sergey Kiriyenko, the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, met with Ukrainian children in the region to discuss educational and extracurricular opportunities in Russia. This strategy aligns with Russia’s ongoing use of such programs to facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, integrating them into Russian educational and social systems.
Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine are integrating the agricultural sector with Russian operations, with the Kherson Oblast administration joining the All-Russian “People’s Farmer” Association, linked to Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural Bank. This is part of a wider effort, as similar agreements have been made with the administrations of Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts, consolidating Russian control over agriculture in these occupied regions.
Russia News
The Russian State Duma is considering a bill to intensify censorship by targeting entities deemed as “foreign agents.” The legislation, backed by Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin and introduced by Vitaly Piskarev, aims to stop Russian ads on platforms owned by “foreign agents,” a term often applied to opposition media. This could force such outlets to shut down or move abroad, and it pressures other media and bloggers to self-censor to avoid financial consequences. This move is seen as part of a Kremlin effort to quash dissent ahead of the 2024 elections.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Despite Kremlin efforts to suppress dissent, relatives of mobilized Russian soldiers are persistently protesting across Russia, advocating for the demobilization of their loved ones. Footage showed members of the “Way Home” social movement paying tribute at monuments in cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, and Yekaterinburg. Additionally, these activists visited the campaign office of presidential candidate Vladislav Davankov in Moscow, delivering letters pleading for demobilization. Recent attempts by Russian authorities to censor a protest at Moscow’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier highlight the government’s ongoing attempts to quell such movements, especially with the March 2024 presidential elections approaching. This persistence reflects a growing challenge to the Kremlin’s narrative and control.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu toured drone production facilities of the Kalashnikov Concern in the Udmurt Republic, including a visit to Lancet drone manufacturer and Kalashnikov subsidiary, Zala Aero. During the visit, Shoigu inspected production lines and new drone models, learning that Kalashnikov has boosted its drone production by 60% since 2022. This increase comes as Shoigu emphasized the need for anti-aircraft guided missiles to defend vital infrastructure, particularly oil and gas refineries, which have been targets of successful Ukrainian drone strikes in regions like Leningrad, Volgograd oblasts, and Krasnodar Krai.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
At a Diplomats’ Day event, Russian leaders Putin and Lavrov justified the Ukraine war and threatened the West. Putin called for the unity of ethnic Russians worldwide, contradicting Russia’s internal suppression of minorities. Lavrov accused the West of pushing a “unipolar neocolonial model,” despite Russia’s infringement on Ukrainian sovereignty. These remarks reflect the Kremlin’s broader agenda to bolster its narrative and widen international support.
Kremlin spokespeople blame the US for stalled peace talks on Ukraine, insisting on American engagement with “mutual respect” while undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty. Despite Putin’s peace rhetoric, Russia’s stance suggests an unchanged agenda, seeking Western and Ukrainian submission.
Russian officials are asserting that German support to Ukraine is extending the conflict, with Ambassador Sergei Nechaev accusing Germany of “everyday Russophobia.” These statements imply Russia believes it could swiftly succeed in Ukraine without Western aid. Additionally, Russian military bloggers suggest that Germany’s industrial sector is struggling due to its government’s policies, which may be an attempt to weaken German domestic backing for ongoing assistance to Ukraine.
Russian officials are leveraging narratives of discrimination against Russians in Moldova and Latvia as potential pretexts for escalation. The Russian Investigative Committee has opened an investigation into the supposed demolition of a Soviet monument in Moldova, amidst criticisms of Moldova’s EU alignment. Additionally, Russia’s Ambassador to Latvia alleges that Latvia is obstructing Russian residents from voting in the 2024 Russian presidential election, furthering claims of anti-Russian bias.
Russian diplomats are openly challenging the international order, with UN Representative Vasily Nebenzya criticizing the United States and UN leadership, while casting the UN’s Black Sea grain initiative as a threat to Russian security. Moreover, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin is urging the CIS to resist “anti-Russian” stances in the UN and is condemning Ukraine and Moldova for their Western leanings. These statements reflect a continued effort to portray Russia as besieged by hostile Western policies.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)