Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as the new Ground Forces Commander amidst ongoing military activity, where Russian forces have built a defensive structure known as the “tsar train” in Donetsk Oblast. While reports suggest inefficiencies in Russia’s defense industrial base, it remains sufficient to support their military campaign, which includes recent troop advancements in Avdiivka and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Additionally, Russia has reportedly recruited a significant number of Nepali fighters, though concerns have been raised about their preparedness for front-line combat.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without any confirmed shifts in the frontline. Russian military bloggers have, however, alleged that Russian forces made tactical advances around Synkivka and eastern Bilohorivka, with continued skirmishes reported in areas extending from southeast of Kupyansk to south of Kreminna, where the Russian “Udaya” Drone Group is said to be active.
Russian forces have constructed a defensive structure known as the “tsar train” over nine months, stretching 18.5 miles (30 km) from Olenivka to Volnovakha in the occupied Donetsk Oblast, based on satellite images and reports. This line of over 2,100 freight cars, initiated in July 2023, is intended to fortify against potential Ukrainian counterattacks. Positioned roughly six kilometers from the frontline, the area has seen marginal Russian territorial advances and was relatively quiet when construction began, suggesting multiple potential strategic purposes for the barrier.
Russian forces have made alleged advances in the Bakhmut region, with claims of progression near Bohdanivka and within 1.25 miles (2 km) of Chasiv Yar, although these movements lack visual confirmation from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW estimates Russian forces to be approximately 1.5 miles (2.3 km) from Chasiv Yar’s eastern outskirts. Meanwhile, persistent positional battles are reported near various locations around Bakhmut, with the Russian forces actively engaged in operations towards Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Confirmed advancements by Russian forces near Avdiivka have been reported, with geolocated footage showing progress along Zaliznychnyi Lane and east of Nevelske. While Russian military bloggers assert further advances in northern Avdiivka and near Pervomaiske, the ISW has not verified these claims. Positional battles persist in the vicinity of Avdiivka, with Russian efforts focused on disrupting Ukrainian supply routes.
Russia is intensifying its military efforts to capture Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast by deploying armored groups with assault infantry. Despite the escalated Russian attacks aiming to encircle the city, Ukrainian forces are holding their ground, effectively neutralizing Russian advances and inflicting significant losses, including 458 Russian troops, 25 military units, and 139 drones in a single day, while maintaining control over the tense situation.
Russian forces are said to have made movements southwest of Donetsk City, with bloggers asserting an advance west of Solodke, though this has not been visually confirmed by the ISW. There are also claims of Ukrainian forces pushing toward Pavlivka, close to Vuhledar. Ongoing positional clashes are reported in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, including near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
A Russian military blogger has claimed significant advances by Russian forces toward Pryyutne, near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, though the Institute for the Study of War has yet to confirm this visually. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials state their forces have successfully fended off Russian offensives north of Pryyutne.
Positional battles persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with engagements reported near Robotyne, west of Verbove, and northeast of Robotyne near Novopokrovka. A claim by a Russian military blogger suggested that Ukrainian forces, advancing from Kamianske, northwest of Robotyne, made unspecified gains near Kopani and Robotyne.
Recent geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces have achieved slight territorial advances in Krynky on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast. Positional combat persisted in the vicinity of Krynky on the same day.
Russian naval presence in the Black Sea was bolstered, with a total of 14 ships now at sea, including four equipped with surface missiles. This increase, as noted by Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk, is believed to be a resumption of regular training and mission exercises, possibly as a response to the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Ivanovets Tarantul-class corvette near occupied Crimea at the end of January.
Human Cost Of The War
Over the night of February 10-11, Russian forces carried out a series of drone attacks on Ukraine, deploying 45 Shahed-136/131 drones from Crimea. Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepted 40 of these drones across several regions, including over Kyiv, where all targeting the city were shot down. The attacks, lasting five and a half hours, primarily aimed at coastal and agricultural infrastructure, saw significant drone activity over Mykolaiv, Odesa, and other oblasts. Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command highlighted that Russian drone launches frequently occur near the Danube River, suggesting a strategy to evade Ukrainian air defenses by utilizing international airspace along Ukraine’s southwestern border.
1 Ukrainian civilians were reported killed, and at least another 4 injured from Russian attacks over the last 24 hours.
- In the village of Vodiane in Kharkiv Oblast, a 56-year-old woman was killed, and a man injured due to Russian strikes on February 10, with emergency services discovering her body under the debris the following day. These attacks, which involved precision-guided munitions according to the oblast governor, Oleh Syniehubov, resulted in the destruction of two homes and damage to seven others, alongside targeting a local agricultural enterprise.
- The village of Monastyrske, Kherson Oblast, was struck by two guided aerial bombs, resulting in injuries to a 43-year-old man and a 67-year-old man from shrapnel wounds.
- Other bombings in Kherson Oblast include Kachkarivka and drone strikes in Beryslav and Zolota Balka, with an attack damaging a medical facility in the regional capital, although no casualties were reported from this incident.
- A drone attack by Russia ignited a fire at an infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv, resulting in damage to homes, a gas pipeline, and a vehicle, and injuring at least one individual.
A woman’s body is recovered from rubble in Vodiane
Ukraine News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently appointed new military leadership, including Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander and several other key positions, such as Joint Forces Commander and Air Assault Forces Commander. These appointments are part of a broader reshuffle that also saw changes in the Territorial Defense Forces and the Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has significantly bolstered its domestic drone production, overtaking Russia in the manufacturing of long-range kamikaze drones over the last six months, as highlighted by the Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. This achievement is part of the “Army of Drones” initiative, with up to 10 drone factories currently operational within the country. Additionally, Fedorov mentioned enhancements to the Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus (MAGURA) marine drone, promising “new surprises” for 2024. This follows a successful strike on a Russian corvette in Crimea using a MAGURA V-5 drone.
Ukraine’s Allies
Japan has committed $106 million to aid in Ukraine’s reconstruction, including efforts in demining and rebuilding infrastructure, with the pledge expected to be formalized at a Tokyo conference on February 19 aimed at fostering public-private partnerships in various sectors. This conference, attended by numerous businesses from both nations, will also see the signing of over ten cooperation memorandums. Additionally, in a show of support, Japan has adjusted its arms export laws to facilitate the transfer of defense equipment to Ukraine, including U.S. Patriot missiles, marking a significant shift in its stance on military aid.
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, strongly condemned the Russian drone attack on Kharkiv on February 10, which resulted in the deaths of seven people, including a family with three children, and left 57 injured after striking a gas station and causing significant damage to residential areas. In response to the attack, which has intensified the call for support to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the necessity of holding Russia accountable for its actions, asserting that security can only be restored when those responsible for initiating the conflict face consequences.
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, highlighted the critical need for weapons in Ukraine, describing the situation on the front line as “very difficult” and emphasized the negative impact of delays in receiving aid. Despite a decline in foreign aid to its lowest level since January 2022, Danilov warned of the complexities ahead, especially as Russia receives support from North Korea and Iran. This comes amid efforts in the U.S. to pass a significant aid package for Ukraine, amidst political contention and international pressure for increased support, including a substantial assistance package from the European Union, underscoring the global dimension of Ukraine’s military and financial aid challenges.
French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne expressed his anticipation to unveil a collaborative initiative with his German and Polish counterparts, Annalena Baerbock and Radoslaw Sikorski, aimed at identifying and countering Russian disinformation efforts within European politics. This announcement is expected to follow their meeting in Paris on February 12, focusing on exposing the mechanisms of Russian disinformation and presenting proof of its influence in Europe. This move comes as France confronts an increase in Russian disinformation campaigns, particularly after a Russian attack in Ukraine resulted in the deaths of two French humanitarian workers, prompting France to call in the Russian ambassador for discussions.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
A 16-year-old girl and her grandmother, acting as her caretaker, successfully fled Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast to safety in Ukrainian-held areas, overcoming their fears of crossing enemy checkpoints, as shared by Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. This escape, facilitated by collaboration with various services, underscores the dire circumstances under Russian occupation, highlighted by Prokudin’s welcome message to the family. This incident is part of a broader crisis where Russia has forcibly displaced or abducted approximately 20,000 children from Ukraine since the invasion began, with the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for high-ranking Russian officials for war crimes related to the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.
Russian officials are intensifying their efforts to enforce social control and instill Russian identity and ideology among the youth in occupied Ukrainian territories. The opening of a student media center at the Crimean Federal University, as announced by the head of the Crimean occupation, Sergei Aksyonov, aims to foster professional development among student media activists under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Education. Concurrently, in Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukrainian authorities report that Russian educational institutions are disseminating misleading historical narratives and propaganda to undermine Ukrainian identity among students.
Russia News
Viktor Demchenko, a 71-year-old Ukrainian accused by Russia of espionage and terrorist activities, has reportedly passed away in pretrial detention in the Rostov region, as stated by the Memorial human rights group. Despite Russia’s history of accusing numerous Ukrainians of espionage since the onset of its invasion in February 2022, specifics on Demchenko’s death were initially unclear until Russian state news agency TASS reported he died of a stroke in a prison hospital on December 31. This incident underscores the broader issue of hundreds of Ukrainian civilians being detained in Russia under similar charges, often without legal representation, with the exact number of such “civilian hostages” being disputed by Ukrainian authorities.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
CNN’s report reveals that Russia has recruited up to 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine, facing criticism over poor conditions and insufficient training. Nepali opposition figures and former officials estimate the number on the frontlines to be between 14,000 and 15,000, contrasting with the Nepali government’s figure of about 200, acknowledging at least 13 deaths. Recruits are reportedly offered at least $2,000 per month and a pathway to Russian citizenship. Many were sent to high-conflict areas like Bakhmut after just two weeks of training, with language barriers significantly contributing to the risks they face. The recruitment process often begins with a journey to Russia on a tourist visa, followed by immediate redirection to military service upon arrival in Moscow, leading some recruits to seek escape from the harsh realities of the frontline.
A bill introduced in the Russian State Duma could allow posthumous marriage registration for partners in common-law relationships with servicemen who died in Ukraine, aiming to ensure financial compensation and legal recognition for these partners. Initiated after President Putin highlighted the issue in December 2023, the proposed legislation requires couples to have lived together for at least three years, or one year if they have a child, to qualify for the benefits. This move seeks to protect the interests of soldiers’ families not formally recognized by law.
A Russian Telegram channel dedicated to military law reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has retracted a proposal to increase the mandatory retirement age for contract soldiers (kontrakniki) to 65 and for senior officers to 70 during mobilization periods. This initiative, initially put forward on February 8, sought to standardize the service age limit for all kontrakniki during times of mobilization.
The efficiency of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has been questioned by Ukrainian military observers, who acknowledge its capacity to support the war effort but point out its reduced output since a peak in September 2023. Labor shortages and the difficulty of acquiring components, particularly from China, have contributed to this downturn, with Western sanctions further restricting Russia’s ability to maintain and acquire parts for essential industrial machinery. Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko has identified that most of Russia’s tank production comprises upgraded older models from stockpiles rather than new builds, with the primary tank producer, Uralvagonzavod, focusing on the restoration of models forecasted to be future mainstays, rather than mass-producing new tanks. Despite official claims, it’s assessed that the bulk of the 1,600 tanks reportedly received by Russia in 2023 are updated versions of existing designs. Russia attempts to mitigate the impact of sanctions and production issues through modernization programs and international partnerships, aiming to ensure a consistent supply of military materials for future operations.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson on February 8 was intended to explain the rationale behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the American public. Peskov noted the general lack of knowledge among Americans about international affairs and highlighted the significance of Putin sharing his “historical vision” with the United States.
The Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation has identified efforts by Russian propagandists to falsely label the newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, as Russian and Soviet, aiming to undermine his credibility and foster mistrust within Ukraine. Despite being born in Russia, Syrskyi has a longstanding commitment to Ukraine, having chosen to serve in the Ukrainian army following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and leading Ukrainian forces against Russian aggression since 2014.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)