Summary of the day: The US Senate has passed a bill providing approximately $60 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, crucial for maintaining its battlefield capabilities against Russian forces, who are facing difficulties implementing Soviet deep battle tactics due to Ukrainian resistance supported by Western aid. Despite Russian claims of exaggerated Ukrainian casualties in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, and the Kremlin’s assertive legal claims over NATO officials, Russian troops have made tactical gains near Kreminna and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Meanwhile, US sanctions are challenging Russia’s attempts to evade the G7 oil cap, with India potentially reconsidering its purchase of Russian oil.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, reports that Russian forces are struggling to implement Soviet deep battle theory—a strategy from the 1920s and ’30s that involves multi-front and in-depth engagements—to overcome Ukrainian defenses. Hindered by challenges such as ineffective counterbattery fire and the inability to conceal troop movements, Russia is also failing to integrate modern technologies into its military operations. Western military aid, providing advanced artillery, counterbattery radars, and long-range weapons, has been key to Ukrainian successes, including the liberation of Kherson Oblast and impairing the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As Russia works to adapt and improve its operational flexibility and technology, the continuation of Western, especially U.S., support remains vital for Ukraine to maintain its battlefield advantages and prevent Russia from regaining a strategic military position.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces have made advances in the vicinity of Kreminna, securing new ground east of Torske and reportedly progressing 1000 feet (300m) into eastern Bilohorivka, with geolocated footage confirming movements near Torske. Claims of seizing part of the Shyplivka-Bilohorivka road have been made but lack visual confirmation. Positional battles persist along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with skirmishes reported in multiple locations including near Synkivka, Tymkivka, Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.
Russian forces have reportedly made partial advances in the Bakhmut region, particularly near Bohdanivka, with Ukraine acknowledging the capture of forested areas by the Russians while disputing Russian milblogger claims of a significant push towards Chasiv Yar. Confirmed positional clashes are ongoing in several areas around Bakhmut, including northeast and northwest of the city as well as to the west and southwest.
Russian forces are reported to have continued their advance in Avdiivka with ongoing positional battles, although claims by Russian milbloggers of progress in northern, central, and the outskirts of Avdiivka remain unconfirmed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi noted an increase in Russian assaults and the highest rate of air and artillery strikes in the Tavriisk direction since the start of 2024. The Russian 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade is said to be active in the Avdiivka region, amidst reports of numerous glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Ukraine is bolstering its defenses in Avdiivka with the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade being partially rotated out after nearly two years, amidst increasing Russian assaults aiming to encircle the city. Reinforcements have arrived, offering significant support and some respite to the defenders. The 110th brigade, on the front lines since March 2022, is facing a challenging situation with Russian forces dominating the skies and employing new tactics, moving from “human wave” assaults to smaller, more tactical groups with aviation support. Recent intelligence suggests Russia is intensifying its efforts in Avdiivka, with additional troops and likely sustained offensive actions supported by tactical air power in the coming weeks.
Positional battles were ongoing west and southwest of Donetsk City, particularly near the settlements of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, as confirmed by both Russian and Ukrainian sources.
The frontline in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area remained unchanged despite ongoing positional engagements. Russian forces were reported to have launched unsuccessful attacks south of Prechystivka and north of Pryyutne, both near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces have made recent advances in the western Zaporizhia Oblast, with geolocated footage showing progress west of Robotyne. Positional battles are ongoing in areas around Robotyne, including to the northeast, east, and south, near Mala Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka.
Positional battles persist in the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with Russian forces, including Storm-Z, Naval Infantry, Airborne (VDV), and mobilized units, launching two to three assaults daily. According to Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk, these Russian units are increasingly deploying first-person view (FPV) drones during their assaults. Despite these efforts, Russian assault units face substantial losses, with up to 70 percent of their personnel casualties in such attacks.
Human Cost Of War
3 Ukrainian were killed and another 7 were injured in Russian attacks on civilian targets over the last 24 hours:
- Russian forces shelled Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the death of a 61-year-old woman and injuring another 50-year-old woman. The attack occurred around 11 a.m. local time, targeting a market in central Vovchansk, a city close to the front line and the Russia-Ukraine border.
- Russian forces attacked an agricultural facility in Kurylivka, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the deaths of two men and injuries to two additional individuals.
- Overnight shelling by Russian forces in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, injured at least four people, including two children aged 17 and eight. The attack damaged a residential building, destroying 12 apartments, with a man rescued from the rubble and ongoing search efforts for possibly trapped residents. All injured individuals are currently receiving medical care.
Aftermath of Russian attack on apartment complex in Selydove
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported 1090 Russian troop casualties in the last 24 hours.
Ukraine News
Overnight on February 12 to 13, Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, deploying 23 Shahed-136/131 drones and hitting targets in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, with Ukrainian forces intercepting 16 drones. Additionally, Ukrainian defenses downed a Kh-59 missile near Odesa and reported a strike in Kirovohrad Oblast by an Iskander-K missile. Ukrainian Air Force emphasized the integration of foreign air defense systems like NASAMS, IRIS-T, and Patriot alongside Soviet-era defenses, advocating for these modern systems to form the core of Ukraine’s air defense strategy.
Ukrainian forces, now on the defensive, aim to deplete Russian troops as they attack along the entire front, with intense fighting in Kharkiv Oblast and efforts to hold key logistics hubs like Kupyansk, stated Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi, appointed by President Zelensky after Valerii Zaluzhny’s dismissal, emphasizes the need for strategic planning and integration of new allied weaponry and technology. The current strategy focuses on maximizing enemy losses through fortifications, drones, electronic warfare, and strong defensive positions.
President Zelensky of Ukraine has named Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk as the special commissioner for the implementation of international security agreements, emphasizing the need for robust security relations with major global powers. Moysiuk, previously deputy to the dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and former commander of the Airborne Assault Forces, is part of a wider military leadership restructuring that includes new commanders for multiple defense forces. This move aligns with Zelensky’s goal of infusing Ukraine’s political and military leadership with “fresh energy.”
Ukraine’s government has dismissed deputies Svitlana Kashenets and Tetyana Tokarchuk from the Ministry of Veteran Affairs following the resignation of Minister Yuliia Laputina, aligning with President Zelensky’s intention for a leadership overhaul. In response to these changes, war veteran Oleksandr Porkhun has been appointed as the acting minister. This reshuffle is part of Zelensky’s push for “fresh energy” in leadership, as new appointments are also made in other senior government positions.
Following a Russian drone attack on Dnipro, the city is evacuating a hospital, closing schools, and experiencing power outages, as announced by Mayor Borys Filatov. The strikes resulted in damage to energy infrastructure, including a severe hit to a thermal power plant, affecting heating supplies. Mayor Filatov has directed residents to over 100 “points of invincibility” for essential services like heating, power, and internet.
The Russian drone strike on an oil depot in Kharkiv on February 10 resulted in a fuel spill over 10,000 square meters, causing a fire that destroyed 15 homes and killed seven people, including a family with children. The incident injured 57 people, prompted a day of mourning, and may lead to an ecocide criminal case due to soil and water contamination, including the Nemyshlia River. This attack contributes to the extensive environmental damage from the war, which has surpassed 55.6 billion euros and has affected vast areas with mines and damage to forests.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is advancing its domestic drone production capabilities, with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal revealing the country hosts approximately 200 private drone manufacturing firms. Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced that in 2023, Ukraine dedicated around $2.5 million in grants to military tech startups, with plans to increase this funding tenfold in 2024. This initiative underscores Ukraine’s commitment to enhancing its technological self-reliance and defense capabilities amidst ongoing conflicts.
Ukraine has reportedly developed a nationwide electronic warfare system named “Pokrova” capable of disrupting the satellite navigation of Russian drones. This system employs “spoofing” to jam navigation systems such as GLONASS, making drones report false locations. Unlike previous short-range spoofing methods, Pokrova operates on a larger scale, with Forbes noting its potential use in downing Russian Shahed drones.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. Senate passed a $95.3 billion aid package with strong bipartisan support in a 70-29 vote. This package includes $60.6 billion for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, with 16% of the Ukraine funds directly supporting its government and economy and the rest benefiting U.S. interests. The bill aims to enhance security assistance and now faces a challenging passage in the Republican-led House.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed opposition to a $95 billion foreign aid bill, including significant support for Ukraine, citing a lack of action on the southern border crisis. The bill, advancing in the Senate, aims to allocate substantial funds to Ukraine, Israel, humanitarian efforts, and Indo-Pacific regional partners, with a Senate vote expected soon. Johnson’s stance highlights the challenges Ukraine aid faces in the Republican-led House, amidst broader Republican demands for border policy changes and skepticism about further support for Ukraine.
Elon Musk, along with Republican senators and Vivek Ramaswamy, criticized the $60 billion U.S. aid package for Ukraine in a live X discussion, contrasting Musk’s earlier support for Ukraine via Starlink. Musk’s suggestions, including territorial concessions for peace and statements echoing Russian views, have drawn criticism from Ukrainian officials and public rebukes. Amidst this controversy, Musk shared a contentious interview by Tucker Carlson, featuring unsubstantiated claims about Ukraine, further fueling debates around his stance and the broader discourse on the war’s impact and misinformation.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith indicated that Ukraine is unlikely to receive a NATO membership invitation at the July summit in Washington, despite Ukrainian hopes for a definitive signal towards joining the alliance. She mentioned that the focus would be on demonstrating NATO’s ongoing support for Ukraine and working on reforms for Euro-Atlantic integration, rather than extending a full membership at this time. The approach aims to support Ukraine in its current conflict and signal continued solidarity against Russian aggression, aligning with the alliance’s cautious stance on expanding under the current circumstances.
US sanctions are effectively hampering Russian attempts to bypass the G7 oil price cap, with reports from Bloomberg indicating that many tankers previously carrying Russian crude above the price cap have ceased such operations. Additionally, there has been a notable turnaround of tankers enroute to India, amidst signals that India is reassessing its role as a major buyer of Russian oil due to the conflict in Ukraine. This shift, combined with US sanctions, threatens to undermine Russia’s reliance on oil revenues to fund its federal budget and war expenditures, especially as India and China’s role in boosting Russian oil revenue faces challenges.
Nasdaq has signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine, supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), to aid the Ukrainian economy and its capital markets amidst ongoing conflict. The partnership aims to bolster investor confidence in Ukraine, evidenced by over $4 billion in foreign direct investment in the last year, and includes initiatives like creating an international finance center and waiving Nasdaq listing fees for Ukrainian companies. This move is part of broader efforts to facilitate capital formation for Ukrainian companies and attract long-term financing, highlighting the commitment to Ukraine’s economic resilience and recovery.
Italy has committed to assisting in the restoration of the Transfiguration Cathedral in Ukraine, which suffered significant damage from a Russian missile attack, by donating 500,000 euros for roof repairs. This aid comes in response to Russia’s damaging or destroying over 120 nationally significant monuments in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion. UNESCO reports that, as of January 10, at least 337 cultural sites in Ukraine have been damaged due to the conflict.
Starting February 20, Polish farmers are set to escalate their ongoing strike by enacting a full blockade of all border crossings and railway stations between Ukraine and Poland, as announced by the Solidarity trade union. This blockade is in response to what the union perceives as inaction by Polish and EU authorities regarding the importation of agricultural goods from Ukraine, which they believe undercuts local Polish farmers. The strike, which began on February 9, has already caused significant delays, with over a thousand trucks queued at the border. Incidents of protest have escalated, including the spilling of Ukrainian grain by Polish protestors, leading to diplomatic tensions. The farmers’ union justifies the blockade to protect Polish food security and protest the rising costs attributed to EU climate policies and Ukrainian agricultural exports.
Czech farmers are set to protest against EU agricultural policies and the import of cheap Ukrainian products, joining a wider European dissent that includes a complete Polish blockade of Ukraine-Poland border crossings starting February 20. The protests, which aim to highlight the competitive pressures from Ukrainian imports and opposition to the European Green Deal’s environmental directives, will see Czech demonstrators blocking a highway in Prague and demanding policy changes from their government.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The Kremlin is taking steps to reinforce its grip on occupied Ukrainian territories by institutionalizing social benefits and services. President Vladimir Putin has directed the Russian government to expand preferential mortgage lending, improve health infrastructure by financially incentivizing Russian medical workers, and ensure insurance payments for volunteers in these regions. These actions are designed to encourage Russian settlement and alter the demographic landscape of occupied Ukraine, aligning with efforts to assert economic, social, and demographic control as part of a broader strategy of ethnic cleansing.
Russia News
A significant portion of the Russian oil tanker fleet is halting operations, likely due to tightened U.S. sanctions, with nearly half of the 50 tankers sanctioned not loading cargo recently. Some tankers bound for India with Russia’s Sokol crude oil have been idling or anchoring off Singapore, while others have turned back, as enforcement of a $60-a-barrel cap on Russian oil by Western countries aims to cut Moscow’s revenue. Despite Russia developing a “dark fleet” to circumvent Western services like shipping insurance, Russian oil continues to trade at a discount, reflecting the sanctions’ impact.
Russia has announced its intention to suspend participation in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly, criticizing it as a politicized entity aligned with Washington, with plans to halt its financial contributions, as stated by Vyacheslav Volodin. The decision for suspension will be deliberated by the State Duma and Federation Council on February 21. This move follows the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly’s designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and subsequent tensions, including Ukraine’s boycott of meetings due to Russia’s membership and allegations of Russia leveraging consensus rules for obstruction.
Russian lawmakers are proposing a bill to widen the scope of the “undesirable” organizations law, originally enacted in 2015, to now include foreign state-funded entities like the BBC or Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, aiming to curb what they describe as foreign interference and influence. This expansion is part of a broader strategy to tighten control over the Russian information space, particularly in anticipation of the 2024 presidential election, potentially impacting journalists from Russian opposition and foreign media outlets. The move, which builds on existing efforts to suppress dissent through laws against “foreign agents” and “undesirable” organizations, will further limit opposition voices and restrict access to independent information within Russia.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses that Russia can continue its current pace of vehicle losses for two to three years through new production and reactivating stored vehicles, having lost around 8,000 armored vehicles since February 2022 and reactivated over 3,650 tanks and infantry vehicles in 2023. Russia maintains extensive reserves, including 10 Central Tank Reserve Bases and numerous equipment storage bases, to support this effort. Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko notes that Russia’s tank production claims are mainly based on restoring and modernizing stored tanks, not new builds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government to resolve issues concerning military personnel, part of an effort to cast himself as a compassionate leader amidst wartime, ahead of the March 2024 presidential election. He specifically mandated the revision of medical examination procedures for those injured while serving in Donetsk and Luhansk regions since May 2014, and the evaluation of the current system for military benefits and payments. This move underscores Putin’s attempt to address military welfare and support systems.
Russia is moving to nationalize key defense industrial enterprises, with the Prosecutor General’s Office filing a lawsuit to seize shares of three companies within the Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Plant, citing illegal privatization between 1993 and 1999 without government approval. This action is driven by concerns over control by entities in “unfriendly” states and the export of products at reduced costs to the US, France, and the UK. These enterprises are noted for producing ferroalloys crucial for manufacturing high-quality steel used in military equipment, aircraft engines, weapon barrels, and armor-piercing projectiles.
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warns that Russian troop numbers near Estonia could double from their pre-2022 level of 19,000 as part of a significant military reform, increasing the threat to NATO. The reform aims to create a mass army that could challenge NATO with its size and firepower, despite technological inferiorities, particularly in electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities. The report emphasizes the need for NATO and Western defense industries to enhance preparedness and ammunition stockpiles to defend against potential conventional attacks. Amidst preparations for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine, Russia plans to increase its military personnel to 1.5 million by 2026 and has allocated a defense budget that significantly exceeds current Western contributions to Ukraine. Additionally, Russia’s artillery ammunition stockpile outnumbers Western supplies to Ukraine, highlighting the widening gap in military resources and underscoring the challenges of maintaining parity in support for Ukraine.
Russia Allies
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) alleges that Russia has been acquiring Starlink terminals via “Arab countries,” as revealed by intercepted communications discussing their purchase and use by Russian troops in occupied Ukraine. Elon Musk has denied selling Starlink to Russia, stating the service does not connect in Russia, while Ukrainian intelligence suggests the terminals are likely smuggled in, costing around 200,000 rubles each. SpaceX, which operates Starlink, was contracted by the U.S. Defense Department to provide satellite services to Ukraine after the Russian invasion.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Russian sources have been deliberately overstating the number of Ukrainian casualties from a strike near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, with conflicting reports and footage suggesting fewer casualties. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military officials have refuted claims of losses, reporting a Russian MLRS strike on Tsukuryne that damaged civilian structures but caused no casualties. This misinformation campaign aligns with previous Russian efforts detailed by the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, which in December 2023 reported planned operations to undermine Ukrainian morale using fake Telegram channels posing as Ukrainian official sources.
The Kremlin is claiming the authority to apply Russian law to NATO member state officials for their actions within their own countries, placing numerous officials on Russia’s wanted list for allegedly violating Russian federal law by destroying Soviet monuments. Mediazona revealed that officials from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, including Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, are targeted for these actions, which Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov and Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova have condemned as hostile and blasphemous. While Russian law criminalizes the destruction of cultural heritage, Russia does not have jurisdiction to prosecute these alleged offenses outside its territory. This move may be a strategic effort to justify future escalations against NATO states, continuing Russia’s pattern of using historical narratives to support its military actions, as observed with the cyberattacks against Estonia in 2007 and the invasion of Ukraine.
US-sanctioned Moldovan politician Ilan Shor has claimed that the US plans to interfere in Moldova’s politics by seeking a successor to President Maia Sandu. Shor’s statements appear to be part of a Russian information campaign designed to depict pro-Western political movements in post-Soviet states as orchestrated by the West, rather than arising from domestic sentiment. This tactic aims to discredit pro-Western figures and influence political perceptions within Moldova.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com