Summary of the day: Russian forces are advancing tactically in Avdiivka, underlining their ongoing struggles with operational envelopment in Ukraine, while any potential capture would mainly serve Kremlin’s informational and political goals. The reorganization of Russian military command structures in southern Ukraine coincides with extensive missile strikes across the country and a Ukrainian drone attack on a Kursk oil depot. In response to the conflict, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group has initiated air defense, drone, and demining coalitions, and NATO announced a joint training center in Poland to enhance Ukrainian military capabilities. Amidst these developments, there have been confirmed Russian troop advancements near Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Russian command has restructured its military forces in southern Ukraine, dissolving the “Zaporizhia” Grouping of Forces and incorporating elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army into the “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, indicating a unified approach to operations in western Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts under Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky’s leadership. This reorganization aligns with observations that Russia views these regions as a single operational axis, aiming for more coordinated military efforts. Additionally, elements of the 5th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies have been reassigned from the “Zaporizhia” to the Eastern Grouping of Forces, reflecting a strategic shift in Russian military command structures.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Geolocated footage reveals Russian forces have made advances northeast of Kupyansk, capturing territory near Synkivka, and making unconfirmed progress near Ivanivka, despite Ukrainian counterattacks leading to losses for Russian forces in the area. Russian forces are described as well-trained and supplied, utilizing barrier detachments, and increasing drone usage, indicating a need for Ukrainian forces to enhance electronic warfare capabilities to counter these tactics. Near Bilohorivka, Russian claims suggest control of nearly 90% of the industrial zone, with ongoing positional engagements in the surrounding regions highlighting the fluidity of frontlines. Ukrainian military analysis indicates Russian military regrouping in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, with movements of assault detachments and the reassignment of units to support offensives and possibly relieve engaged divisions, suggesting a strategic reallocation of forces. This reorganization aims to sustain Russian offensives in both areas, necessitating additional reserves as efforts in Avdiivka intensify. The ongoing engagements and troop movements underscore the dynamic nature of the conflict, with both sides adapting strategies to gain tactical advantages.
Russian forces achieved marginal advancements near Bakhmut, with recent geolocated footage showing slight progress west of the city and claims of Russian forces reaching the outskirts of Ivanivske, just west of Bakhmut. Ongoing positional battles are reported in areas surrounding Bakhmut, including Vesele, Bohdanivka, Khromove, and further southwest towards Klishchiivka and Pivdenne. The Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces notes that Russian units are being redeployed to the Bakhmut sector from other frontlines, intensifying attacks in the region.
Russian forces are making incremental advances in Avdiivka, including capturing key positions, and cutting off the last road connecting southern and northern parts of the city, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces continue to resist, using secondary lines of communication for supplies and recapturing some positions, despite acknowledging partial withdrawals. Recent redeployments and counterattacks by Ukrainian brigades indicate ongoing efforts to counter Russian encirclement attempts.
The Russian military’s offensive in Avdiivka highlights its failure to achieve operational envelopment or encirclement in Ukraine, shifting from initial attempts at encirclement to a turning movement after failing to bypass principal Ukrainian defenses for significant tactical gains. Despite capturing Bakhmut in spring 2023 through similar tactics, Russian forces have consistently failed to envelop or encircle Ukrainian forces, suggesting a future strategy of gradual, minor tactical advances rather than large-scale maneuvers. This pattern indicates a limitation in Russian operational capabilities, likely leading to continued reliance on smaller tactical actions instead of decisive operational breakthroughs.
The potential capture of Avdiivka by Russian forces, while not operationally significant, could provide the Kremlin with immediate informational and political victories, especially in the context of the upcoming Russian presidential election in March 2024. Despite ongoing efforts since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 and the fortified nature of Avdiivka and surrounding areas, Russian advances have been slow and costly. Avdiivka’s limited strategic value and the strong fortification of nearby Ukrainian positions mean that even if captured, Russian forces are unlikely to achieve rapid or significant operational progress from there. The considerable resources spent on the offensive suggest a need for a period of consolidation before any further significant offensive actions. However, the Kremlin is likely to portray any success in Avdiivka as a major victory to the domestic audience and ultranationalist supporters, claiming it as a step towards securing Donetsk City, despite the limited impact on the broader strategic situation in the region. This narrative aims to bolster support ahead of the election, regardless of the tactical reality on the ground.
The situation in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, remains challenging yet under control amidst ongoing fierce combat, as stated by Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine’s Tavria forces. The Third Assault Brigade of Ukraine was rapidly redeployed to Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, amid a dire situation as Russian forces intensify their efforts to encircle and capture the strategically important city. This brigade, recognized for its effectiveness and led by Andrii Biletskyi, was brought in to support the defense after the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade signaled a diminishing capacity to maintain control alone. Upon arrival, the Third Assault Brigade conducted raids in Russian-controlled parts of Avdiivka, reportedly inflicting significant losses on Russian units, despite facing continuous challenges from the deployment of additional Russian troops and equipment to the area. Despite the stable and effective management of troops and the allocation of additional resources, concerns about dwindling ammunition supplies persist, posing a significant threat to the Ukrainian defense of Avdiivka.
Positional battles persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City, with Russian forces reportedly advancing towards Heorhiivka and near Novomykhailivka’s southeastern outskirts. Engagements were noted around Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, highlighting the ongoing clashes in these areas. Russian units are actively engaged in operations around Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka, respectively.
Russian forces have made a slight advancement in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, particularly west of Novodonetske, as shown by recent geolocated footage. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks near Staromayorske, as well as south of Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka, all in proximity to Velyka Novosilka. These developments indicate ongoing hostilities and dynamic front lines in the region.
Russian forces in the western Zaporizhia Oblast have reportedly made advances, although unconfirmed, near Verbove with continued positional engagements in the vicinity. Ukrainian spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy pointed out a significant build-up of Russian forces in the Orikhiv direction, akin to the deployment around Avdiivka, suggesting preparations for potential offensives. Despite the accumulation of forces, there is currently no clear evidence of an impending offensive, though Russia’s motive to reclaim lost territories during Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive is apparent.
Positional battles persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, where Russian naval infantry units are actively engaging Ukrainian positions. These assaults indicate a preparation for renewed offensive operations by Russian forces in the Dnipro River islands area. It is likely that additional Russian naval infantry will be deployed for these forthcoming operations.
Human Cost Of War
A Czech volunteer was reported killed in battle near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. This marks at least the fourth Czech citizen killed fighting on Ukraine’s side since the start of the Russian invasion. The Czech Foreign Ministry confirmed the death, but the identity of the volunteer was not disclosed.
7 Ukrainian were killed and another 6 were injured in Russian attacks on civilian targets over the last 24 hours:
- Russian forces attacked the village of Zoria in Donetsk Oblast’s Illinivka community, resulting in the death of an 83-year-old woman and injuries to two men aged 71 and 41. The attack, conducted around 5 p.m., allegedly utilized Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems, causing damage to eight houses, a high-rise building, and a school.
- A Russian attack on the village of Chorne in Kharkiv Oblast resulted in the deaths of three people, including a married couple. The village was targeted with two guided aerial bombs, leaving a 58-year-old woman, a 56-year-old man, and a 17-year-old girl dead. Additionally, a 54-year-old woman and a 53-year-old man sustained injuries in the attack.
- A Russian attack on the village of Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast injured two men, aged 51 and 47.
- Russian forces shelled Kherson resulting in the death of a 70-year-old woman. The attack, conducted with artillery, occurred around 11:30 a.m. local time, while the woman was walking down a street.
- The bodies of two women were recovered from the debris of an apartment building in Kharkiv Oblast’s village of Velykyi Burluk following Russia’s Feb. 14 missile strike, bringing the death toll to four, with five others injured.. The victims, aged 74 and 54, were identified by the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office. Rescue operations are ongoing, and casualties may rise further.
Aftermath of Russian attack on civilians of Chorne
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that there were 950 Russian casualties inflicted over the last 24 hours.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian security forces executed a successful drone strike on the Polyova Oil Depot in Kursk Oblast, as confirmed by the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate and Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit, resulting in a fire. Explosions captured in Russian-released footage showed at least two oil tanks, containing diesel fuel, igniting because of the strike. This incident marks the fifth successful Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure within the last month.
On the night of February 14 to 15, Russian forces launched a substantial missile attack on Ukraine, deploying a variety of missiles from multiple locations, including cruise, ballistic, and guided missiles from aircraft, ground launchers, and naval platforms. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 13 out of the many missiles launched, targeting various regions across Ukraine, and affecting both military and civilian infrastructure, notably striking Lviv City, and damaging facilities in several oblasts like Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk. The use of Kalibr missiles by Russian forces has decreased, possibly due to logistical or technical challenges, as noted by Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuri Ihnat.
Following the dismissal of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s approval rating dropped by 5%, as reported by a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll, with Zaluzhnyi and Budanov remaining the most trusted Ukrainian leaders. The poll also indicated a shift in public sentiment, with a slight majority of Ukrainians now feeling the country is on the wrong path. Despite recent events and changes in military leadership, most of the population continues to trust Zelensky.
Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) listed Weatherford International as an “international sponsor of war” for its continued presence in Russia, aiming to pressure companies to exit Russia and weaken Moscow’s financial capabilities. Despite halting new investments and technology deployment in Russia, Weatherford still operates through its subsidiaries and partners, contributing taxes and maintaining business ties with Russian oil giant Rosneft. The company’s ongoing operations in Russia align with its intention to honor existing contracts and pursue new ones in the country.
Ukraine’s NACP has upheld Raiffeisen Bank’s inclusion in the international sponsors of war list due to its continued operations in Russia, Reuters reported. The bank’s presence in Russia prompted Ukraine’s move in March 2023, affecting negotiations on EU sanctions. Raiffeisen’s unclear exit strategy from Russia has led to ongoing scrutiny and diplomatic consultations.
The World Bank’s Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, published on Feb. 15, estimates Ukraine’s post-war recovery and reconstruction costs at $486 billion over a decade, a figure 2.8 times higher than last year’s nominal GDP. Direct damage from Russia’s aggression has reached almost $152 billion, with sectors like housing, transport, commerce, and energy most affected.
Ukraine legalizes medical cannabis for veterans with PTSD and patients with serious illnesses like cancer, aiming to expand access to necessary treatments. The law will come into effect in July 2024. Distribution will be strictly controlled, with access limited to those with a doctor’s prescription, while recreational use remains prohibited.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted that almost 50% of Ukraine’s electronic warfare and air defense systems are domestically produced. He mentioned that Ukraine is in the process of developing more such systems and has initiated several collaborative production projects with allied nations. This development underscores Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities amidst the ongoing conflict.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the formation of an intergovernmental working group, dedicated to coordinating the procurement and purchasing of weapons. This initiative is aimed at streamlining the process and ensuring effective acquisition of military equipment.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, under US leadership, has initiated three coalitions for air defense, drones, and demining to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities, following their 19th meeting in Brussels. Germany, France, and the United States will spearhead an Air and Missile Coalition comprising 15 countries, while Latvia, alongside eight other nations including Ukraine, aims to supply one million FPV drones through the Drone Coalition. The UK and Latvia will co-lead the Drone Coalition, promising significant drone contributions to Ukraine. Lithuania, in collaboration with Iceland and 20 other countries, will lead a Demining Coalition, committing resources and equipment for demining efforts in Ukraine. Additional European support includes Germany’s 100 million euros in military aid, Lithuania’s contribution of drones and winter equipment, and Spain’s upcoming transfer of armored vehicles and anti-aircraft systems. Discussions also covered the provision of long-range weaponry and logistical support for transferring F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed the establishment of a joint center in Bydgoszcz, Poland, dedicated to analysis, training, and education, enhancing cooperation and experience sharing between Ukrainian forces and NATO allies. Concurrently, NATO has committed $10 billion for contracts with ammunition manufacturers to boost wartime production and support Ukraine’s defense. Additionally, a “drone coalition,” led by the UK and Latvia, aims to supply Ukraine with 1 million drones, underscoring the strategic importance of unmanned systems in the conflict. For the first time, European NATO members are set to collectively invest $380 billion in defense by 2024, reaching the two percent GDP target agreed upon by alliance members.
Some U.S. Congress members are exploring alternative paths to pass the $60 billion foreign aid bill for Ukraine after House Speaker Mike Johnson’s opposition, The Hill reported. Johnson’s stance aligns with Donald Trump and the Republican hardline faction, raising obstacles for the bill’s approval. One option under consideration is a discharge petition, requiring support from 218 lawmakers, while another alternative proposed by the Problem Solvers Caucus aims for a bipartisan package addressing border security, Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan with reduced funding. However, challenges remain as progressive Democrats may oppose certain aspects, and Trumpist Republicans have rejected previous proposals, sparking debate over priorities and partisan divides.
Germany’s military inspector general promised Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief equipment valued at 100 million euros, including mine-protected vehicles, drones, trucks, medical supplies, and weapon system parts, amid stalled U.S. assistance.
The Australian Ministry of Defense announced a grant of $32.4 million USD (50 million AUD) to fund the purchase of essential military equipment for Ukraine.
A Norwegian-Finnish ammunition company, Nammo, is ramping up its production of 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine by moving to a 24-hour operation at its Swedish plant, as reported by Swedish media. Despite this increase, Nammo representatives expressed concerns that the enhanced production may still fall short of meeting the high artillery demands of Ukraine and the task of replenishing Europe’s diminished artillery reserves.
The World Bank and Ukraine’s Economy Ministry aim to secure $500 million for projects supporting Ukrainian businesses in 2024, amidst economic strains caused by the ongoing Russian invasion. Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko expressed gratitude for the World Bank’s support during the war and emphasized the importance of focusing on priority industries to boost GDP. Discussions also covered strategies to increase export potential, attract World Bank financing, and modernize lending programs to stimulate bank lending to businesses.
Ukraine stands to lose approximately $200 million if the border blockade by Polish farmers persists until the end of February, as stated by Danylo Hetmantsev, the chairman of the parliamentary finance committee. The Polish agricultural protests, which began in November 2023, are a response to the influx of cheap Ukrainian agricultural products into the EU, leading to a 40% drop in Ukrainian exports. As tensions escalate, with Ukrainian carriers staging counter-protests, officials from both countries are working towards a bilateral agricultural trade agreement expected by March’s end, amidst apologies from Poland’s Agriculture Minister for the destruction of Ukrainian grain during the protests.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The head of Ukraine’s Energoatom, Petro Kotin, has warned that the situation at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant is deteriorating due to Russian military activities, which include mining the plant’s perimeter and storing heavy weaponry on-site. Additionally, the ZNPP is approaching the manufacturer’s six-year limit for the storage of nuclear fuel within reactors, a deadline never before exceeded, raising concerns about potential risks. Compounding the issue, Russian forces have expelled the remaining qualified Energoatom staff from the facility, leaving no experts to make informed decisions on nuclear safety.
Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast discovered an explosive device attached to the vehicle of an occupation official on February 14. The targeted vehicle belonged to Mykhailivka occupation deputy Andrey Mochalov, according to reports from Russian opposition outlet Astra, citing anonymous sources. The incident occurred in Mykhailivka, highlighting the ongoing tensions and security challenges in the occupied areas.
Russia is leveraging patronage programs to enhance its social and economic influence in the Ukrainian territories it occupies. Officials from the Chechen Republic and occupied Kherson Oblast have explored industrial and trade cooperation, indicating efforts to integrate these areas with Russian regions. Additionally, a cultural delegation from the Sakha Republic visited occupied Donetsk Oblast to organize a concert with Ukrainian youth, showcasing attempts to foster cultural ties.
Russia News
Russian reports indicate that Admiral Viktor Sokolov was removed as Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and replaced by Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, following a Ukrainian strike on the BSF headquarters in Crimea that likely resulted in Sokolov’s death. Criticism within Russian military circles include Sokolov’s alleged prohibition against equipping vessels with advanced detection technologies, contributing to the BSF losing about 20% of its strength during his tenure.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its air defense intercepted 14 rockets over Belgorod, with six people reportedly killed and 17 wounded, including five children, according to Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. Damage was extensive, affecting an industrial site, shops, cars, and apartment buildings in Belgorod, along with villages in the surrounding region. Ukrainian authorities have not confirmed responsibility for the attack.
A reported explosion in Biysk, Russia’s Altai region, possibly occurred at a military plant, according to residents. Biysk Mayor Viktor Shchigrev described it as part of a “technological process” at an enterprise without specifying the facility. No casualties were reported, but residents observed a pillar of smoke and felt a powerful blast wave.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are introducing measures to encourage military enlistment, with State Duma officials proposing a bill to forgive debts for personnel with certain disability benefits. Additionally, the governor of Rostov Oblast announced an increase in the signing bonus for contract soldiers, more than doubling the previous amount. These incentives are part of a broader effort to bolster the number of contract soldiers in the Russian military.
During a visit to the Uralvagonzavod tank plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast, President Putin lauded the expansion of Russia’s defense industrial base, noting a significant increase in the production of tanks and armored vehicles. He acknowledged the plant’s contribution of modernized tanks to the Russian military and paralleled this with claims from a drone manufacturer about enhanced drone production capabilities. Despite these developments, assessments suggest that Russia is avoiding a full-scale mobilization of its defense industry to prevent further strain on its economy.
Russia Allies
Hungary vetoed the EU’s latest sanctions against Russia over the inclusion of Chinese companies, aiming to mark the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion by Feb. 24, according to the Financial Times. The proposed package targets nearly 200 entities aiding Moscow’s war effort, including firms from Russia, China, and other nations. Despite objections, EU discussions continue with the goal of reaching an agreement before the anniversary.
The Belarusian Air Force held an aviation safety training conference in Minsk, welcoming Russian military personnel. This event underscores the ongoing military cooperation between Belarus and Russia, focusing on enhancing aviation safety protocols.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Russian President Vladimir Putin is advocating for Russia to lead an international anti-Nazi movement, suggesting in an interview that many countries are adopting ideologies that prioritize one nation over others, which he equates with Nazism. He proposes that Russia should engage in “anti-fascist and anti-Nazi” propaganda on a global scale, although he has not provided a clear definition of this ideology, framing it instead as an anti-Western stance. This move is part of Russia’s broader imperialist ambitions, seeking to justify its actions in Ukraine and its wider goals under the guise of combating an alleged Western Nazism, without offering a coherent ideology beyond opposition to the West.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) has identified the commencement of the “Perun” information operation by Russian entities, aimed at disseminating pro-Kremlin narratives in international media. This operation seeks to amplify pro-Russian viewpoints on the war in Ukraine through foreign journalists, media figures, and bloggers. The initiative marks a strategic effort by Russia to influence global perceptions and narratives related to the conflict.
Russian officials are intensifying information campaigns against Moldova, aiming to undermine its Western integration by accusing its government of Russophobia and hostility towards Russia. In a recent interview, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin criticized Moldova for aligning with Western sanctions and following a path likened to Ukraine’s, suggesting widespread pro-Russian sentiment within Moldova. This strategy mirrors the Kremlin’s tactics prior to its actions in Ukraine, suggesting a possible groundwork for hybrid operations against Moldova.
Putin deliberately distorted a statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken about Blinken’s Jewish great-grandfather fleeing pogroms in the Russian Empire, to argue pseudo-historically against Ukrainian statehood. By misrepresenting Blinken’s reference to his ancestor’s origins in Poltava Oblast and departure from Kyiv City, Putin aimed to suggest Blinken’s acknowledgment of these Ukrainian regions as inherently Russian territory. This tactic aligns with a pattern where Putin and other Russian officials frequently twist the words of Western officials to support Russian information campaigns.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com