Summary of the day: Russian forces captured Avdiivka after a prolonged offensive and made confirmed advances in western Zaporizhia, underscoring a tactical but not operationally significant progression amidst broader opportunistic offensives, likely aided by delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine. Investigations are ongoing into alleged Russian violations of the Geneva Convention in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Internationally, Denmark announced a significant donation of its entire artillery to Ukraine, and the U.S. is engaging India and China concerning Russia’s reported intentions to deploy an anti-satellite nuclear weapon into space.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are aiding Russian forces in conducting opportunistic offensives across multiple frontlines, particularly near Kupyansk, Lyman, Avdiivka, and Robotyne, to pressure Ukrainian defenses. The lack of timely Western support, especially in artillery ammunition and air defense systems, has hampered Ukrainian capabilities to resist Russian advancements, notably after the fall of Avdiivka. These delays and equipment shortages are compelling Ukrainian forces to conserve resources, thereby limiting their ability to launch counteroffensives and leaving them vulnerable to continued Russian operations.
Russian forces are exploiting the pre-spring thaw period and the current state of Western aid to Ukraine to advance their offensive operations, aiming to gain ground before the muddy season complicates mechanized movement for both sides. The muddy conditions expected with the thaw are already hindering Ukrainian reinforcements in the south, a strategic disadvantage Russia seeks to leverage for tactical gains and to wear down Ukrainian defenses before the anticipated increase in European security assistance takes effect. Although the scale-up of European aid may bolster Ukraine’s artillery capabilities, it won’t compensate for the potential loss of critical U.S. military support, including advanced air defense systems, underscoring the challenges Ukraine faces in stabilizing the front and countering Russian offensives.
The Russian capture of Avdiivka, achieved after four months of intense fighting, illustrates a pattern where Russian offensives force Ukraine to allocate significant resources to defense without yielding substantial operational advantages for Russia. Despite the heavy toll on Russian forces, including over 47,000 personnel and significant equipment losses, and the inability to fully encircle Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces managed an orderly withdrawal. This scenario, reflecting both the high cost to Russia and the strategic composure of Ukrainian defenses, is likely to be replicated in other areas of conflict, such as the Kharkiv-Luhansk border and western Zaporizhia Oblast, where Russian efforts draw Ukrainian resources but fail to secure decisive operational success.
Russian forces’ capture of Avdiivka does not indicate their ability to achieve operationally significant gains or execute rapid mechanized movements across extensive territories, as distinguished by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) between tactical (local) and operational (front-wide) levels of warfare. Despite efforts since October 2023, Russian advances around Avdiivka have been limited, covering less than 10 kilometers, far from demonstrating the capability for wider, swift maneuvers required to significantly alter the broader conflict dynamics, especially towards reaching the Donetsk Oblast border or the more fortified Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area. Additionally, Russian attempts to advance in other strategic locations like Kupyansk and south of Orikhiv are hampered by entrenched positions and climatic challenges, respectively, further questioning their capacity for substantial offensive breakthroughs.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces have redeployed units to the Kupyansk-Svatove area, with specific movements including units previously positioned near Belgorod and Bryansk to the area east of Ivanivka, east of Kupyansk. These redeployments are in response to unsuccessful attempts to advance towards the Kyslivka-Kotlyarivka line, leading Russian efforts to shift focus towards Pishchane, west of Krokhmalne. The redeployment near Ivanivka is linked to these operational challenges. Meanwhile, positional engagements near Kreminna have not resulted in frontline changes, with continued fighting west and south of Kreminna. The introduction of almost the entire 67th Motorized Rifle Division to the conflict near Yampolivka has not achieved significant advances, indicating a possible strategy to replace forces redirected towards the Avdiivka direction rather than bolstering operational strength. Elements of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the “GORB” detachment are active near Bilohorivka, highlighting ongoing troop movements and engagements in the region.
Limited and unsuccessful Russian attacks occurred near Vyimka, northeast of Bakhmut, with no changes to the frontline reported. Positional engagements continued around Bakhmut, including near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka, but no visual confirmation supported claims of Russian advances towards Ivanivske.
Ukrainian forces are expected to form new defensive lines near Avdiivka, potentially halting the Russian offensive in the area. Despite the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the capture of Avdiivka and advancement in Donetsk Oblast, there are mixed reports about the condition of Ukrainian defenses and their withdrawal. Some Russian milbloggers describe Ukrainian forces as unprepared and disorganized, but there’s no conclusive evidence of disorderly retreats. Contrarily, indications suggest Ukrainian troops are regrouping to prepared positions, with fresh units joining to strengthen defenses and counterattack Russian advances. Imagery and reports imply these Ukrainian positions are well-prepared, likely leading to a standstill as Russian forces, weakened from the assault, face these reinforced Ukrainian lines.
Following the announcement of Avdiivka’s capture on February 17, Russian forces have been clearing and consolidating positions in the area, with Russian milbloggers reporting ongoing operations despite the absence of visual confirmation. Ukrainian forces maintain control over parts of Avdiivka’s outskirts, with the situation reportedly stabilizing as Russian assaults decrease. Despite limited engagements southwest of Avdiivka, including near Pervomaiske and Nevelske, no significant changes to the frontline have been confirmed, indicating a focus on consolidation and localized attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses near Lastochkyne.
Positional engagements persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City, with no verified alterations to the frontline in these areas. Fighting was reported near Heorhiivka, west of Donetsk City, and near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, southwest of the city. Despite these engagements, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are advancing offensive operations towards Kurakhove from Heorhiivka, indicating ongoing military activity without significant territorial changes.
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks south of Prechystivka and west of Staromayorske, both located southeast and south of Velyka Novosilka, respectively.
Russian forces achieved a slight advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with geolocated footage indicating a recent push north of Kopani, near Robotyne. Despite claims of further advances towards Verbove and Robotyne itself, there’s no visual confirmation of such extensive movements. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a significant Russian assault near Robotyne, involving modernized but vulnerable Soviet-era T-55 tanks, with continued operations by Russian airborne and motorized rifle units in the area.
Russian troops attempted to storm Ukrainian positions along the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast 14 times on Feb. 18, following Ukraine’s tactical withdrawal from Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported ongoing assaults by Russian assault units near Krynky on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
On the night of February 17 to 18, Russian forces launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Ukraine, including 14 Shahed-136/131 drones from Crimea and Kursk Oblast, six S-300 missiles from Donetsk Oblast, three Kh-22 cruise missiles from Voronezh Oblast, a Kh-59 guided missile from Zaporizhia Oblast, and Iskander-M ballistic missiles from undisclosed locations. Ukrainian air defenses and EW systems successfully intercepted 12 Shahed drones and a Kh-59 missile over several regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk. However, attacks by Kh-22 and Iskander-M missiles on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk resulted in civilian casualties and damage to civil infrastructure, with additional strikes hitting a school in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast.
On the morning of February 18, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the downing of a Russian Su-34 aircraft in eastern Ukraine. This follows the successful engagement by Ukrainian forces of two Russian Su-34s and one Su-35 over Donetsk Oblast on February 17.
Relatives have identified three Ukrainian soldiers of the 110th Brigade, featured in a Russian propaganda video, as POWs killed in Avdiivka, where Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi ordered a withdrawal on February 17 due to intensified Russian assaults. The soldiers, known by their call signs Bayraktar, Django, and Panda, were reportedly left wounded during the retreat from the Zenit strongpoint, a key defensive position since 2014. Amidst these developments, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi highlighted the heavy losses Russia incurred in the attempt to seize Avdiivka, a strategic location contested since Russia’s initial invasion in 2014, with the city now largely devastated by ongoing conflict.
During the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine has secured additional security and military aid agreements, building upon earlier pacts with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, though specifics were not disclosed. These efforts aim to diversify Ukraine’s reliance beyond U.S. support, amidst ongoing discussions with the U.S. for further security guarantees and amid a shortage of military supplies, particularly artillery and 155mm shells. Zelensky’s engagements at the conference, including a meeting with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and a speech urging increased security aid, highlight Ukraine’s strategy to mitigate weapon deficits and counter Russian military strategies.
Ukrainian authorities are probing two alleged breaches of the Geneva Convention by Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast, involving the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). Investigations are underway into two incidents: one involving the killing of six injured Ukrainian POWs near Avdiivka, and another showing the execution of two Ukrainian POWs near Vesele, northwest of Bakhmut. These acts contravene Article III of the Geneva Convention, which mandates humane treatment of POWs.
Ruslan Kravchenko, the regional Governor of Kyiv Oblast, reported that out of 244 educational facilities damaged by Russia’s full-scale invasion, 198 have been either fully or partially rehabilitated, including 122 schools and 71 kindergartens in areas like Bucha, Irpin, Borodianka, and Brovary. Efforts are underway to rebuild an additional 15 kindergartens and 28 schools, with most of these restoration projects being over 80% complete and including the installation of more than 1,200 modular air raid shelters. The restoration, financed through European aid and charitable organizations, follows the severe damage and atrocities committed by Russian forces in these communities, highlighted by the discovery of mass graves and documentation of war crimes in Bucha and other areas around Kyiv, which were liberated in April 2022.
Russian hackers targeted several Ukrainian media outlets, including Ukrainska Pravda, Liga.net, Apostrophe, and Telegraf, disseminating misinformation, as reported by Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection. The attack led to the compromise of Ukrainska Pravda’s account on the social media platform X, falsely posting about the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These incidents are part of a broader pattern of cyber aggression, with previous attacks on Kyivstar and Monobank in December, attributed to the Russian hacker group Solntsepek.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, disclosed plans on February 17 to establish a new ammunition factory in Ukraine through a partnership with a local Ukrainian company. The facility is set to produce a “six-digit” quantity of 155mm caliber shells annually. Additionally, Rheinmetall has previously committed to setting up a repair center in Ukraine for Leopard tanks and other military equipment supplied by Germany.
Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov announced Ukraine’s own version of the Russian Lancet loitering munitions has successfully undergone preliminary testing, with plans for combat trials by Ukrainian forces in the near future.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. is engaging India and China to address concerns about Russia’s plans to deploy an anti-satellite nuclear weapon into space, as reported by The New York Times. During the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed with his Chinese and Indian counterparts the risks such a deployment poses to global satellite communications, urging them to convey these concerns to Russia. While some analysts believe Russia aims to use a nuclear-powered device against satellites rather than a nuclear warhead, discussions between the U.S. and China also touched on the peaceful use of space and the need for a stable peace in Ukraine, indicating China’s cautious stance towards supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
At the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 18, EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell criticized Western allies for hesitating to provide military assistance to Ukraine at the start of Russia’s invasion, suggesting a different outcome if decisions had been quicker. Borrell highlighted delays in providing weaponry like Leopard tanks and Patriot missile systems, citing concerns about escalation. Despite criticism, Borrell praised European unity in supporting Ukraine and emphasized the need for continued and expedited aid delivery.
Finland’s President-elect Alexander Stubb, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, emphasized Ukraine’s inevitable path towards NATO membership as merely a matter of timing, outlining steps that include initial security agreements with G7 members, EU membership, and ultimately, NATO inclusion. Stubb, acknowledging his comments as personal due to his pending inauguration, highlighted the counterproductive effects of Russia’s aggression, which has paradoxically drawn NATO closer to its borders and solidified a new division in Europe. As Finland’s 31st NATO member since April 2023 and having contributed significant military aid to Ukraine, Stubb reaffirmed his commitment to supporting Ukraine and enhancing NATO’s role in European security.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen declared Denmark’s commitment to donate its “entire artillery” to Ukraine, though specific details of the donation—whether it includes all artillery guns, all artillery ammunition stocks, or both—were not clarified in an official government statement at the time.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed on February 17 that the Netherlands plans to deliver at least 24 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as scheduled, though a specific transfer date was not provided. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas suggested the first F-16s could arrive in Ukraine by June 2024. The Netherlands, in partnership with Denmark, is spearheading an international coalition to supply these aircraft to Ukraine and is also participating in training Ukrainian pilots in Romania.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials are employing education initiatives to assimilate occupied regions of Ukraine, with Zaporizhia Oblast’s occupation leader Yevgeny Balitsky revealing in a meeting for the “Znanie” Society. This organization aims to cultivate a new cadre of scientists and educators to spearhead cultural transformation in occupied territories. These efforts, part of a broader strategy to Russify occupied Ukraine, include training Ukrainian youth for future roles in public service, presumably to support the administrative needs of Russian occupation authorities.
Russia News
A high-ranking Russian military commander, Colonel Magomedali Magomedzhanov, died in a Sevastopol hospital in Russia-occupied Crimea on Feb. 14 from injuries sustained during his fourth military operation, according to the Dagestan local government.
Russian authorities have denied Alexei Navalny’s family access to his body following his death on February 16 in a penal colony in Kharp, amidst international outcry attributing responsibility to Vladimir Putin. Despite conflicting reports about the cause of death, ranging from harsh prison conditions to intentional murder, Navalny’s body reportedly remains in Salekhard, with officials first claiming the investigation into his death was complete, then stating the body would be withheld until the investigation concludes. Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin and victim of a 2020 poisoning with Novichok, has become a symbol of the Kremlin’s harsh suppression of dissent, with ongoing confusion and secrecy surrounding the circumstances of his death and the location of his remains.
Russian milbloggers have expressed discontent with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for not acknowledging the contributions of Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov and the “Veterany” Assault Brigade in the capture of Avdiivka, reflecting ongoing frictions between Russian regular and irregular forces. They criticized the exclusion of Milchakov and the brigade from official accolades by President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu, despite their significant roles in the operation. The MoD’s subsequent amendment to credit the “Veterany” Brigade appears as an attempt to mollify ultranationalist critics and recognize the efforts of volunteer servicemen, highlighting the persistent tension amidst attempts to integrate irregular units into formal military structures.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian news outlet Shot reported that the Ural Technoport Company has initiated mass production of the “Antonov” drone in Chelyabinsk Oblast, a model touted for its enhanced resistance to adverse weather and wind conditions. Capable of reaching speeds up to 140 kilometers per hour with a payload capacity of up to three kilograms, the “Antonov” drone is expected to be produced at a rate of 500 units per month specifically for military use in Ukraine. However, a Russian milblogger has indicated that the drone is still under testing.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, and a prominent nationalist voice within the Russian government, has reiterated threats aimed at deterring Western military aid to Ukraine by suggesting that such support could provoke Russia into using nuclear weapons against the West. His statement continues a pattern of employing alarmist nuclear rhetoric, marking no significant change in Russia’s rhetorical stance. Medvedev’s comments align with Russian information operations designed to undermine Western assistance to Ukraine.
Since January 2023, the Kremlin has been conducting extensive disinformation campaigns in Ukrainian media, utilizing fake Telegram channels and social media to spread false narratives, as reported by The Washington Post. These efforts, orchestrated by Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko and his team, aim to discredit Ukrainian leadership, sow division among elites, demoralize the military, and disorient the population, producing over 1,300 texts and 37,000 comments weekly on Ukrainian social media by March 2023. Highlighted by documents from European intelligence, this campaign includes spreading rumors about Ukrainian losses, potential leadership changes, and government corruption, with some fake posts achieving millions of views, indicating a strategic effort to undermine Ukrainian morale and cohesion.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.