Summary of the day: Russia celebrated its capture of Avdiivka and claimed control of Krynky in Kherson Oblast, despite evidence suggesting Ukrainian forces still hold positions there. The New York Times reported potentially hundreds of Ukrainian personnel missing following the withdrawal from Avdiivka, amid investigations into Russian violations of the Geneva Conventions in Zaporizhia Oblast. Amidst these developments, Russian troops made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka, with the Kremlin focusing on expanding Russia’s defense industrial capabilities and consolidating control in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Fighting persisted along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without altering the frontline, involving areas northeast, southeast, north, west, and south of key points like Kupyansk and Kreminna. The Russian force in this region totals 122,000 personnel, with significant engagements reported near Tabaivka, Synkivka, and along the Zherebets River. Ukrainian military analysis highlights the struggles of Russian units to advance, despite reinforcements, due to effective Ukrainian resistance and artillery fire, particularly in efforts to move across the Oskil River and in the Terny-Yampolivka area.
Positional battles persisted near Bakhmut without changes to the frontline, focusing on areas northwest, west, and southwest of the city. Ukrainian forces reported Russian attempts to advance towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, with Russia transferring reserves and relocating forces from the Avdiivka area to support efforts in Bakhmut.
Russian forces made a recent advance on the eastern outskirts of Lastochkyne, northwest of Avdiivka, as indicated by geolocated footage. The “Sparta” Battalion Commander of the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed Russian forces have cleared Avdiivka, amidst ongoing positional engagements in the surrounding areas.
The New York Times reported that following the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, 850 to 1,000 Ukrainian personnel may be captured or unaccounted for, based on information from two Ukrainian soldiers and corroborated by senior Western officials. Some Western officials mentioned that the disorganized withdrawal on February 16 and 17 led to significant Ukrainian personnel being captured, encompassing those killed, wounded, missing, or captured. Despite the lack of open-source visual evidence of such large-scale losses or captures, the report’s accuracy remains under consideration, with ongoing monitoring for further evidence to assess the situation’s outcome.
Russian forces are reported to have advanced in the Pobieda area, southwest of Donetsk City, with no visual confirmation from ISW but claims of Ukrainian withdrawal yet to be verified. Positional battles persist west and southwest of Donetsk City, with specific engagements near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
Russian forces achieved a slight advance north of Shevchenko near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with geolocated footage from February 20 confirming the movement amidst ongoing positional battles in the region. The fighting persisted in several locations southwest, south, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka, including near Malynivka, Staromayorske, and Shevchenko.
Despite claims of tactical advances by Russian forces between Robotyne and Verbove, with reported gains of 700 meters to two kilometers since February 17, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the Robotyne area as of February 20. Russian military bloggers stated that Russian forces continued their assault on Robotyne from multiple directions, while Ukrainian forces were said to be counterattacking to regain lost positions. The Russian forces are actively involved near Verbove and in the Orikhiv direction, indicating ongoing military activities in the region.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu asserted that Russian forces had fully seized Krynky in Kherson Oblast, despite conflicting reports and lack of visual evidence suggesting that Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in the area. Putin acknowledged reports of remaining Ukrainian personnel, a claim Shoigu contested, insisting on the operation’s success, and commending specific military units for their role. However, independent assessments and Ukrainian military spokespeople report ongoing positional fighting and no significant Russian advances, with Ukrainian forces reportedly expanding their bridgehead.
Human Costs Of War
7 Ukrainians were killed and at least another 7 were injured during Russian attacks on civilian targets over the last 24 hours.
- In the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian drone attack on a civilian vehicle resulted in the immediate deaths of two individuals and severe injuries to a third. The victims, all farm workers returning from work, included a 38-year-old driver and a 50-year-old passenger, with the latter’s 48-year-old wife surviving but hospitalized.
- A Russian attack on the Nova Sloboda community in Sumy Oblast, utilizing artillery and aviation, resulted in five fatalities. The assault led to a fire in a residential building, where rescuers discovered the bodies of a family comprising a mother, her two sons, and two distant relatives—a grandmother and a visiting woman. Officials noted that the building was struck by a Lancet attack drone, underscoring the deadly impact of the aggression.
- A Russian missile attack in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, resulted in at least three injuries. Damage was done to an industrial area and a residential building. The Kramatorsk City Council also warned of potential disruptions to the city’s water supply due to the attack.
- Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring three people, including an 87-year-old woman hospitalized in severe condition. The strikes targeted the city of Nikopol and the Chervonohryhorivka community, causing damage to houses, power lines, and vehicles.
Aftermath of Russian attack on civilian targets in Nova Sloboda
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a coordinated drone and missile attack on Ukrainian rear areas, firing missiles from Belgorod and Zaporizhia Oblasts and deploying 23 Shahed drones from Krasnodar Krai, all of which were intercepted by Ukrainian defenses across multiple regions. The Ukrainian Air Force highlighted the shift in Russian tactics, noting the closer deployment of A-50 radar detection aircraft to Russian borders and Belarus, a change attributed to Ukraine’s recent successful downing of Russian aircraft, including an A-50 over the Sea of Azov. This adjustment in Russian strategy reflects a cautious approach following Ukrainian aerial defense achievements.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General initiated an investigation into new allegations of Russian violations of the Geneva Conventions in Zaporizhia Oblast, following the publication of footage showing the execution of three Ukrainian POWs. This incident, among others investigated for war crimes in Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, contravenes the Geneva Convention’s rules on POW treatment. Amidst these reports, Russian President Putin asserted Russia’s compliance with international conventions regarding POWs, likely as a strategy to mitigate international backlash and legal consequences, including an ICC arrest warrant issued against him in March 2023.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska honored the 10th anniversary of the EuroMaidan Revolution by paying tribute to the “Heavenly Hundred,” activists who were killed by security forces during the protests in 2014. These events led to the ousting of pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych and marked a pivotal shift towards pro-Western and pro-democracy policies in Ukraine. Zelensky reflected on the resilience of Ukrainians against attempts to suppress their freedom and the ongoing pursuit of justice for the victims, noting that over 30 individuals have been charged for their roles in the violence, with guidance from Russia.
Kyiv has warned it will strongly react to any efforts to draw the Russian-controlled region of Transnistria into the conflict with Ukraine or to destabilize Moldova, amidst increasing Russian pressure on the Eastern European nation. Transnistria, where Russian troops have been stationed since the early 1990s following an invasion to purportedly protect ethnic Russians, is recognized internationally as part of Moldova, which demands the withdrawal of Russian forces. Tensions have escalated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the pro-Russian leader in Transnistria calling for enhanced military readiness. Ukraine’s special envoy discussed the Transnistrian conflict’s status and bilateral issues with Moldovan officials, advocating for a peaceful resolution that maintains Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine opposes the 5+2 negotiation format on Transnistria that includes Russia and supports Moldova’s EU integration as a path to development and stability. Amidst this backdrop, Moldova faces Russian destabilization efforts, including energy weaponization, cyberattacks, and threats of unrest, as it moves closer to the EU under President Maia Sandu’s leadership.
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey revealed that nearly 70% of Ukrainians support President Volodymyr Zelensky staying in office beyond his term under martial law, favoring the postponement of elections until the situation stabilizes. While Zelensky’s term is due to end in May 2024, martial law—initiated at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022—precludes elections, reflecting widespread public sentiment against voting during wartime. Despite logistical and security hurdles in conducting elections amidst conflict, with many voters displaced or in occupied territories, a majority remains in favor of Zelensky seeking re-election, underscoring the priority of national unity and stability.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukrainian business associations are advocating for amendments to the country’s new mobilization law, concerned that its provisions could severely impact the national economy, especially amidst the ongoing war with Russia. The law, which now exempts citizens aged 18-24 from mandatory conscription and introduces online call-ups, has raised alarms over potential staff shortages and damage to the export sector. Businesses are urging for a revision to prevent the excessive conscription of their workforce and the military’s unrestricted seizure of private vehicles, seeking a balance that accommodates the needs of the military, the economy, and the workforce.
The Ukrainian General Staff announced that Ukrainian defense manufacturers have commenced serial production of the 2S22 155mm self-propelled “Bohdana” artillery systems. These systems boast the capability of firing 100 shells per day, requiring only a single shell to “warm up” the artillery barrel, an improvement over the Soviet-era Msta-B artillery systems, which require two shells for the same process.
Ukraine is actively expanding its defense industrial base (DIB) through agreements with German firms, including a memorandum of understanding signed by Ukroboronprom with MDBA Deutschland GmbH on February 20 for the development and production of air defense systems to counter drones. Additionally, Dynamit Nobel Defense of Germany announced on the same day its plans to consider local production of Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank weapons, following a cooperation agreement with Ukroboronprom signed on February 17. These collaborations aim to enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities through international partnerships and local production initiatives.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Commission announced it will provide 83 million euros ($89.8 million) in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Moldova for 2024, raising the total EU humanitarian contributions to 923 million euros ($999 million) since Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine began in February 2022. Of this, 75 million euros ($81.2 million) are designated for Ukraine to support emergency services and basic needs, while 8 million euros ($8.7 million) will support humanitarian projects in Moldova. The EU’s aid efforts, especially in Ukraine since 2014, prioritize areas close to the frontline, responding to the dire need for humanitarian assistance affecting nearly 40% of Ukrainians, as highlighted by EU Commissioner Janez Lenarcic and corroborated by the UN’s OCHA.
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson announced Sweden’s largest security assistance package for Ukraine, valued at $683 million, including a variety of military support and equipment. The package encompasses artillery ammunition, portable air defense systems, anti-tank missiles, Carl Gustaf rifles, grenades, and 30 boats, including 10 CB-90 fast assault watercraft. Additionally, it allocates about 1 billion Swedish Kroner ($96.5 million) for the joint Swedish-Danish procurement of CV-90 armored vehicles for Ukraine.
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair disclosed that Canada will provide Ukraine with over 800 SkyRanger R70 drones, part of an aid package valued at approximately $95 million. This contribution is part of the broader $500 million security assistance package announced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in June 2023, aimed at supporting Ukraine.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that a Russian hybrid operation aimed at creating tension within Estonian society had been thwarted, following the detention of 10 individuals by the Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS) for crimes including the targeted vandalism of Interior Minister Lauri Laanemets’ car. The ISS believes these acts, motivated by the Russian special service, were intended to instill fear and unrest, with most detainees having prior criminal records. This incident is part of a broader pattern of vandalism across the Baltics, with Latvia arresting a dual Estonian-Russian citizen for similar acts, highlighting concerted efforts by Russian intelligence to destabilize the region.
Polish farmers protesting at the Ukrainian border have announced plans to extend their blockade until April, with the possibility of intensifying their actions by also blocking bus traffic, according to Polish media and statements from protest leader Roman Kondrow. The protests, which began earlier in February due to concerns over Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s Green Deal, initially targeted truck movements but are now poised to cover the entire border. The situation has escalated with counterprotests by Ukrainian truckers and instances of grain being spilled by protesters, prompting calls from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry for Polish intervention against the blockade and associated anti-Ukrainian sentiments.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast are expanding public services in controlled areas to strengthen bureaucratic dominance and create dependency among the local population on the occupying administration. Yevgeny Balitsky, the occupation head, announced the opening of the largest “My Documents” center in Zaporizhia Oblast, aimed at providing over 30 services to more than 137,000 individuals, including real estate registration and compulsory medical insurance. This move, part of Russia’s broader strategy to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories into its bureaucratic system, seeks to gather private data on residents and increase their reliance on Russian administrative support.
Ukraine successfully repatriated 11 children who had been deported or unlawfully detained by Russia, as announced by Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, with assistance from Qatar and UNICEF. The group, ranging from two to 16 years old, included six girls and five boys, with some requiring immediate medical attention upon their return.
Russia News
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the European Union’s call for an independent international probe into the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who died under suspicious circumstances in a penal colony on February 16, as reported by RIA Novosti. EU High Representative Josep Borrell demanded a transparent investigation and the release of political prisoners, emphasizing international concern over Navalny’s death, which has been attributed to either harsh conditions or deliberate murder. Despite global outcry and calls for accountability, including potential additional sanctions, Russia remains dismissive of these demands and restricts access to Navalny’s body, with Russian officials deflecting blame onto Western influences.
Yulia Navalnaya, widow of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, urged the European Union to reject the results of Russia’s upcoming presidential election during a meeting with the EU Foreign Affairs Council, proposing stronger sanctions against Putin’s allies and refusal to recognize the election outcome. Navalny’s death in a penal colony has sparked international condemnation, with Navalnaya blaming Putin directly and calling for global action against his regime’s atrocities. Despite Navalnaya’s plea and widespread criticism, Putin is expected to secure a fifth term in the March elections, following a 2020 vote allowing him to extend his rule indefinitely.
Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine in August 2023, was confirmed killed in Spain on February 13, with his death reported by Ukrainian and Spanish media. Kuzminov had garnered attention for landing a Mi-8 helicopter in Ukraine and surrendering to authorities, receiving promises of security, financial rewards, and new documents for his defection. After moving to Spain, he was reportedly shot six times in Villajoyosa under a false identity, amidst initial confusion over his identity; the Spanish government has not yet commented, while a Russian official labeled him a “moral corpse.”
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Kremlin is actively working to enhance Russia’s defense industrial base, with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighting a sixfold increase in tank production and efforts towards tank modernization. However, Ukrainian sources and international observers suggest that Russia’s reported boost in tank numbers primarily involves restoring and modernizing stored tanks, rather than entirely new productions. Despite this, Russia’s capacity to refurbish and deploy these tanks provides a tactical advantage in terms of the sheer volume of armored vehicles available for military operations.
Sergei Kiriyenko and Yuri Trutnev, high-ranking Russian officials, formed the “Soyuz” volunteer detachment, mainly comprising athletes, and secured 634 million rubles from Russian businesses, including Rosatom and Sberbank, through the Russian Union of Martial Arts. The “Soyuz” members underwent training at the Russian Special Forces University in Chechnya, with Ramil Gabbasov, Co-Chairman of the RSBI, serving as the commander. This detachment was reportedly deployed to Ukraine sometime after its establishment in December 2023.
Russian Allies
Russia is leveraging its BRICS chairmanship to advance its foreign policy goals and extend its international influence. During a meeting on February 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro discussed Venezuela’s intention to join BRICS, aligning with Russia’s efforts to expand the bloc’s membership.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko echoed Kremlin narratives, depicting the West as aggressive and a menace to Russia and Belarus alike. He accused Western nations of trying to destabilize Belarus from within and orchestrating false flag operations with the aim of eroding Belarusian sovereignty.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Russian President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu publicly lauded the capture of Avdiivka, using the event to further an information campaign designed to undermine Ukrainian morale by highlighting a supposedly chaotic Ukrainian withdrawal. Despite portraying the operation as a significant success with minimal losses, estimates suggest Russian casualties ranged from 16,000 to 47,000, with no specific operational benefits claimed for the seizure. This narrative, amplified through briefings and media interviews, aims to bolster Russian military achievements and Putin’s image as a competent leader, particularly in the context of his upcoming reelection, while also attempting to sow panic and weaken morale within Ukraine.
Defense Minister Shoigu claimed that Russian forces had completely seized Krynky in Kherson Oblast, despite evidence and reports suggesting Ukrainian forces still hold a bridgehead in the area. Shoigu contradicted reports acknowledged by Putin of remaining Ukrainian personnel, declaring the operation a success and highlighting the role of certain military units. Independent assessments and Ukrainian officials indicate ongoing fighting and no conclusive Russian gains, with Ukrainian forces reportedly expanding their bridgehead. The Kremlin’s assertions of victory in Krynky appear aimed at bolstering its narrative ahead of the 2024 presidential election, framing such claims as significant achievements despite the lack of tangible evidence. Shoigu’s statements about Russian successes and the declaration of the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive seem designed to project Russian control and boost morale domestically. These claims, alongside optimistic forecasts about the war’s outcome, likely serve to support Kremlin narratives and electoral goals but risk setting unattainable expectations for Russian military performance.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.