Summary of the day: Significant developments in the Ukraine conflict included the reported suicide of a prominent Russian milblogger, Andrei Morozov, over disputes with military command regarding casualty reports around Avdiivka. Russian forces captured Pobieda and achieved troop advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, Robotyne, and Krynky, amid claims by Army General Valery Gerasimov of swiftly seizing Avdiivka. Additional noteworthy events included a Ukrainian HIMARS strike inflicting notable casualties on Russian forces near Volnovakha, the forced deportation of Ukrainian citizens by Russian authorities, Iran’s missile supply to Russia, and the detention of a US-Russian citizen for allegedly fundraising for Ukraine.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukraine’s military intel chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told the Wall Street Journal that Russia’s ability to seize Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts this year is doubtful despite its 510,000 troops and 30,000 monthly recruits. He cited challenges like reliance on untrained conscripts, a struggling defense industry, and outdated tanks. Budanov proposed Ukraine focus on defensive tactics to weaken Russian forces, possibly paving the way for a counteroffensive in 2025, depending on sustained U.S. support amid congressional aid uncertainties.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Positional battles continue along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with no confirmed frontline shifts. Russian forces, taking advantage of favorable weather, launched assaults with armored units along the Kupyansk-Lyman line, but their 40,000-strong force hasn’t made significant gains. Despite substantial Russian presence, Ukrainian defenses have remained resilient, halting notable progress in the sector.
Positional battles persist near Bakhmut with no confirmed frontline changes, focusing on various directions around the city. Russian forces attempt to advance in areas like Ivano-Darivka while encountering difficulties around Ivanivske, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Efforts are concentrated along strategic directions to bypass challenging terrain, with a focus on the Bohdanivka-Chasiv Yar route, highlighting Bakhmut as a significant focal point.
Minor advancements northwest of Avdiivka were achieved by Russian forces, with geolocated footage showing slight progression on the eastern outskirts of Lastochkyne. Positional fighting continues around Avdiivka, with battles reported northwest, west, and southwest of the city. Efforts are underway to establish a new defensive line in the Avdiivka direction at strategic locations such as the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
Andrei Morozov, a prominent independent Russian military blogger, allegedly committed suicide after defying orders to delete his reports detailing high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka. He criticized Russian military strategy, accusing generals of sacrificing servicemen for career advancement and referencing severe manpower and equipment shortages.
A Ukrainian official refuted claims of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers captured during their withdrawal from Avdiivka, labeling such reports as exaggerated and misleading. Russian forces captured the settlement of Pobieda southwest of Donetsk City, cutting off a key highway and potentially facilitating further advances.
Positional battles persist along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, with engagements near Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, and Novozlatopil around Velyka Novosilka. Claims of Russian advances near Novodonetske lack visual confirmation, reflecting a stalemate in the region.
Russian forces have advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly around Robotyne and west of Verbove, although reports of significant gains near Novoprokopivka lack visual evidence. The UK Defense Ministry notes increased Russian attacks following Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka due to ammunition shortages. Ukrainian troops are engaging Russian forces in skirmishes around Verbove and Mala Tokmachka, employing nimble infantry maneuvers and high-speed vehicles to counteract Russian advances.
Recent Russian advancements in Krynky, Kherson Oblast, contradict Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s claim of complete control. Geolocated footage supports the advancement, challenging assertions from Russian sources and milbloggers that Ukrainian forces still hold positions. Accusations have emerged against Shoigu for allegedly misleading President Putin.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused three deaths and injured at least 22 others:
- A missile strike in Kramatorsk injured at least seven people, with one possibly trapped under debris.
- Elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast, attacks in Kostiantynivka led to one civilian death, while Dobropillia saw two injuries. A Russian drone strike in Pokrovsk injured four rescue workers.
- Kharkiv Oblast suffered damage to residential and agricultural structures. In Kupyansk district, a Russian drone strike killed two occupants of a civilian vehicle and injured another.
- Strikes in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injured three individuals and caused significant property damage.
- Approximately 50 strikes hit Kherson Oblast early on February 21, injuring four people.
- Sumy Oblast experienced 236 strikes across 38 attacks on February 20, resulting in one civilian injury.
Aftermath of Russian attack on apartment complex in Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
A Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the Trudivske Training Ground near Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast, reportedly caused significant Russian casualties, potentially up to 60 personnel from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, prompting outcry among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers. The attack on February 20 drew criticism for the Russian military’s decision to concentrate forces within Ukrainian strike range, despite previous similar strikes. While some dispute casualty figures, the incident underscores concern about Russian military strategy and preparedness.
Ukrainian military officials reported Russian missile and drone launches from Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces intercepted several missiles and drones, with some failing to hit targets. Ukrainian Air Force downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft, adding to seven Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft downed in the past five days. Concerns were raised about Russia’s Iskander missile supply, with 1,100 missiles used in winter 2022-2023, and efforts to replenish from foreign sources.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is addressing the blockade by Polish farmers protesting Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s Green Deal, which escalated tensions at the border. While specifics of proposed steps are undisclosed, Zelensky emphasized the need for trade liberalization with the EU and unity against Russian aggression. Poland threatens further restrictions on Ukrainian goods if talks fail, straining relations despite prior support.
Ukraine considers a new export route via the Danube River to Romania to bypass disruptions at the Polish border. The river’s importance for shipping grew since Russia’s exit from the Black Sea grain deal. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov highlighted the need for predictable logistics at the Munich Security Conference, mentioning potential improvements to domestic transport and export routes. The European Commission allocated funds to enhance Romanian port infrastructure, supporting increased Ukrainian exports.
The SBU apprehended a Kharkiv woman accused of providing Russia with targeted information for missile strikes on civilian areas, including a January 23 attack injuring nine. Allegedly recruited earlier in the year, she identified populated zones and recorded Ukrainian military movements, transmitting details to Russian intelligence for financial rewards. Charged with high treason, she faces potential life imprisonment amid Ukraine’s thousands of national security crime cases.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on February 21 allowing foreigners and “stateless persons” to serve in Ukraine’s National Guard, expanding participation in defense efforts. This extends beyond the International Legion to include frontline duties. Zelensky’s move follows leadership changes in the National Guard in 2023, including a new commander and deputy commanders.
Ukraine is boosting its domestic drone production while also seeking drones from abroad. Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated Ukraine can manufacture over one million drones annually, emphasizing quality assurance through ammunition supply, radio signal frequency diversity, and provision of essential accessories for operators.
Ukraine’s Allies
A European Council on Foreign Relations poll found only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine could win against Russia, while 20% foresee a Russian victory. Most favor a compromise settlement, with over 40% suggesting Europe should encourage Ukraine to negotiate peace. Similar sentiments prevail in the U.S., where a minority expect a Ukrainian victory, and a substantial majority call for immediate diplomatic talks, acknowledging the war’s importance to national interests.
EU ambassadors, under the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council, tentatively agreed on the 13th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting nearly 200 individuals and entities. The package aims to block the supply of drone components to the Russian defense industry, despite attempts by Hungary to remove certain entities from the list.
EU countries reportedly agreed to lift sanctions against Arkady Volozh, co-founder of Yandex, Russia’s leading search engine, citing his intention to break ties with Yandex’s Russian business. Switzerland is intensifying efforts to enforce sanctions against Russia, investigating breaches and freezing billions of Swiss francs in Russian accounts.
The UK announced sanctions against six Russian officials linked to Alexei Navalny’s detention and death on February 16, with the US pledging “major sanctions” against Russia, details expected on February 23.
Legal experts suggest seizing frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine would be lawful, pending legal clarity. Polish President Andrzej Duda extended the legality of Ukrainian refugees’ stay until June 30, while Poland considers imposing further restrictions on Ukrainian food imports if negotiations fail, amidst protests at the border over Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s Green Deal.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Yevgeny Balitsky, the governor of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, confirmed that Russian authorities are forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens who resist the invasion or show disrespect toward Russia. Balitsky rationalized these deportations as being for the individuals’ benefit, suggesting they might otherwise face harsher treatment or even death from pro-Russian locals or authorities. He hinted at more severe measures, potentially including summary executions, as part of Russia’s efforts to suppress Ukrainian identity and enforce Russification in occupied territories, showing a disregard for international law.
Dmytro Lyubinets, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner, reported the successful repatriation of 11 Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia. The repatriation was facilitated by collaborative efforts from UNICEF, the Ukrainian Border Service, Ukrainian officials, and Qatar.
Russian occupation administrations are strengthening connections with regional authorities in Russia through patronage networks. Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), announced a cooperation agreement with Sergei Tsivilev, head of Kemerovo Oblast, aimed at enhancing industrial capacity and fostering business ties between occupied Donetsk and Kemerovo oblasts.
Russia News
Following Alexei Navalny’s death, six Russians arrested for attending memorials were handed military draft notices upon release, while hundreds mourning publicly were detained. Ukraine’s military intelligence reported ongoing mobilization efforts, enlisting up to 30,000 monthly.
The suicide of Andrei Morozov was mourned in the Russian information space, with criticism directed towards military and political actors. Some suggested his suicide was due to lack of support from friends, while others condemned harassment he faced for criticizing the military. His death underscores a tightening grip on dissenting voices in Russia.
The U.S. warned allies of Russia’s potential launch of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon into space this year, raising concerns about accidents and damage to communication systems.
A U.S. citizen, Ksenia Khavana, was arrested in Russia on treason charges for allegedly donating $51 to a Ukrainian charity on the day of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Despite international concern, Russian authorities have not granted consular assistance to Khavana, emphasizing their stance on dual citizenship.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
ZALA Aero, a subsidiary of Kalashnikov Concern and maker of the Russian Lancet drone, revealed on February 20 its development of advanced optical-electric systems for drones and manned rotary-winged aircraft. These systems will include high-definition video cameras and thermal imagers to improve aerial reconnaissance in adverse weather. They will also feature a three-axis electromagnetic gyro-stabilized platform for superior image stabilization.
Russian Allies
Iran supplied Russia with around 400 short-range ballistic missiles, including Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar models, in early January, following an agreement between the two countries at the end of 2023. This move, confirmed by Iranian sources and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger, comes after the expiration of UN missile restrictions under UNSC Resolution 2231 in October 2023, allowing Iran to export weapons freely. These missile sales aim to boost Iran’s struggling economy, potentially involving substantial financial exchanges, as evidenced by the alleged $4.5 billion annual payment from Russia for Iranian Shahed series drones. These missiles could enhance Russia’s capability to target distant locations in Ukraine, raising concerns about breaching Ukrainian air defenses. The Ukrainian Air Force recognizes this acquisition as a significant threat, underscoring deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia since Iran began supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Conflict Armament Research (CAR) reported that a North Korean ballistic missile used by Russia in Ukraine contained over 290 components from U.S. and European companies, mostly constituting the missile’s navigation system. While there’s no evidence these companies directly provided parts to North Korea, it’s likely these components entered the supply chain through international distributors, circumventing UN sanctions against North Korea’s missile production. Russia has fired at least 24 North Korean missiles into Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General.
Belarusian and Kazakh companies are aiding Russia in bypassing international sanctions aimed at limiting its defense industrial base’s access to Western technology and components, according to a report by Russian opposition outlet Verstka. These companies have facilitated the transfer of components from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, the US, and other European nations, supporting Russia’s production of missiles, drones, and weaponry for the conflict in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that while Russia’s defense industry may face short-term challenges, efforts to enhance sanction evasion, particularly through collaborations with countries like China and North Korea, could mitigate these difficulties over the medium to long term.
Frontelligence Insight, a Ukraine-based open-source organization, reported that the Russian military footprint in Belarus is minimal, primarily consisting of some ex-Wagner Group members training Belarusian forces. The organization predicts no significant increase in Russian conventional forces in Belarus shortly and deems a renewed assault on Kyiv from the north improbable, aligning with the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) threat assessment. Additionally, Russia has stationed two S-400 battalions, supplemented by several Pantsir-S1 units, at the Prybytki and Velikii Bokov air bases in southern Belarus.
Three major Chinese banks, including ICBC, CCB, and Bank of China, have stopped accepting payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions since the start of 2024, as reported by Izvestiya. This move signals the impact of Western sanctions over Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, with China also facing potential repercussions from the U.S. and the EU for assisting Russia in circumventing sanctions. Despite China’s ongoing economic cooperation with Russia during the conflict, Western powers are considering imposing restrictions on Chinese companies involved in supporting Russia.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed rapid capture of Avdiivka, his first public appearance since December 29, 2023, presenting state awards to servicemen involved. Despite portrayals by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and President Vladimir Putin as a significant success with minimal losses, the operation, lasting four months, reportedly resulted in substantial casualties, including 16,000 to 47,000 personnel and 212 lost tanks in the Tavriisk direction. Contrasts between official Russian statements and acknowledged Ukrainian losses highlight discrepancies in accounts of the battle’s outcome.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed Russia’s extensive goals in Ukraine, attributing conflict prolongation to the West and Ukraine. Lavrov stated Russia persists in the conflict for “demilitarization,” “denazification,” and Ukrainian neutrality, interpreted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as essentially requiring complete Ukrainian and Western surrender.
Kremlin-affiliated commentators are laying groundwork to rationalize potential future Russian actions in Moldova, alleging Ukrainian plans to establish a consulate in Transnistria, the Russian-occupied separatist region, as a pretext for provocations. This narrative also accuses the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) of unspecified provocative actions in the area.
Russian authorities allege Western nations use state-affiliated entities for espionage abroad, akin to Russian practices. The FSB has accused British government-linked organizations of intelligence gathering in occupied Ukraine. This comes amid accusations from Moldovan and Ukrainian officials that Russia utilizes its cultural centers abroad for propaganda and subversive activities.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.