Summary of the day: On the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine continues its resistance amid international support, with European and Canadian allies pledging additional aid and discussing EU integration. Russian casualties are reported to exceed 75,000 since 2022, while Russian military emphasizes successes in Avdiivka and technological advancements. Domestic sentiment in Russia shows resistance to further mobilization amidst ongoing military efforts. Ukrainian forces conducted a significant drone strike on a Russian metallurgical plant and temporarily disrupted Russian air operations with the downing of an A-50 aircraft, despite Russian denials of Ukrainian responsibility. On the battlefield, Russian forces have advanced near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, as both sides continue to clash along the front lines.
Situation On The Ground And Air
The downing of a Russian A-50 radar aircraft on February 23 led to a temporary suspension of Russian air operations, including the cancellation of combat missions by five Su-35 fighter jets, some of which were aimed at conducting airstrikes near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) attributed the aircraft’s shootdown and the consequent operational pause to a strike by a modernized S-200 air defense system, which resulted in the loss of all 10 crew members aboard the Russian A-50. This incident marks a significant impact on Russian military capabilities in the region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ongoing positional battles were reported northeast of Kupyansk and in the vicinity of Kreminna, with no significant alterations to the frontline. Conflicts continued around Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Zhytlivka, and Terny, highlighting the sustained tension in these areas. Russian forces are active south of Kreminna near Berestove, indicating continued military operations without territorial gains.
Russian forces made advancements near Bakhmut, particularly south and southeast of Bohdanivka and in the eastern outskirts of Ivanivske, as confirmed by geolocated footage. Elements of Russian airborne and motorized rifle divisions are involved in attacks against Ukrainian positions in these areas. Positional battles also persisted southwest of Bakhmut, notably around Klishchiivka and Andriivka, indicating ongoing engagements without definitive territorial changes.
Russian forces reported advancements west of Avdiivka, including progress within southeastern Lastochkyne, as evidenced by geolocated footage from February 24. Despite Russian claims of capturing Lastochkyne, Sieverne, and Stepove, there’s no visual confirmation of recent gains in Stepove or Sieverne. Ongoing positional battles near Avdiivka, particularly around Orlivka, Lastochkyne, Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, highlight continuous military engagements in the region.
Positional battles persisted around Donetsk City, particularly west and southwest. Ukrainian forces launched a partially successful counterattack near Pobieda, raising concerns about the security of Russian positions in the area.
Positional engagements persisted along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on February 24, with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Clashes took place southwest and southeast of Velyka Novosilka, in areas such as Shevchenko and Zolota Nyva. Despite claims from Russian forces of advancements in the region, there has been no visual confirmation to substantiate these reports, indicating ongoing military activity without significant territorial shifts.
Russian forces have achieved a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with geolocated footage showing progress in central Robotyne as of February 24. Despite additional claims of northward advancements into Robotyne, no visual evidence has been provided to support these assertions. Positional engagements were also reported near Verbove and Mala Tokmachka, indicating ongoing military activity in the vicinity of Robotyne.
Both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing positional engagements in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, specifically in the area of Krynky.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused two deaths and injured at least 11 others:
- A Russian-launched drone crashed into a residential area in Odesa, causing a fire and destroying part of a building. The incident resulted in one fatality, with the victim’s wife rescued from the rubble and hospitalized in serious condition. Additionally, three other residents from a neighboring apartment sustained injuries and were taken to the hospital for treatment.
- In Dnipro, Ukraine, a man was found dead under the rubble of a nine-story apartment building struck by a Russian drone attack overnight. Emergency crews continue to search for a woman believed to have been in the building during the attack. Eight people were injured, with two hospitalized in moderate condition.
Ukraine News
Ukrainian special services targeted the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk, Russia, with a drone strike on the night of February 23-24, potentially halting production for an extended period according to Ukrainian sources. Lipetsk Oblast’s Governor reported the interception of two drones, claiming minimal impact on the plant’s operations, while NLMK representatives denied supplying products to the Russian defense industry, despite reports of contracts with military and nuclear production enterprises. The attack on a facility owned by Vladimir Lisin, one of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs, underscores the strategic significance of the strike amidst ongoing conflicts.
On the night of February 23 to 24, Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov Oblast, three Kh-59 cruise missiles from occupied Kherson Oblast, and 12 Shahed-136/131 drones from locations in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted and downed all 12 Shahed drones and two Kh-59 missiles over the regions of Kirovohrad, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
Ukraine’s Allies
On the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine received pledges of additional support and EU integration talks from European and Canadian allies. The EU announced a 4.5-billion-euro ($4.9 billion) aid tranche as part of a larger 50-billion-euro ($54.2 billion) package for 2024-2027 and plans to deliver significant military aid, including artillery ammunition. The UK, Italy, and Canada have also committed to substantial financial and military support, including long-term security cooperation agreements and investments to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
In a video call, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need for decisive support and unity from the Group of Seven (G7) nations, who reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s security, including military assistance and efforts to bolster Ukraine’s economy against Russia’s aggression.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Canada and Italy have joined the U.K., Germany, Denmark, and France in signing security assistance agreements with Ukraine, following a G7 pledge to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, among other leaders, visited Kyiv to mark the occasion, with Canada committing over $2.2 billion in assistance for 2024. Zelensky expressed gratitude towards these nations for their support, highlighting the agreements as foundational for long-term security partnerships and acknowledging the efforts in defense and recovery support.
The United Kingdom has pledged an additional 8.5 million pounds ($10.8 million) in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, with funds designated for the Red Cross Movement and the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund, marking the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. This contribution adds to the U.K.’s total commitment of 357 million pounds in humanitarian assistance since 2022, making it one of Ukraine’s largest humanitarian donors. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron emphasized the support for Ukrainians facing the war’s devastating impacts, reaffirming the U.K.’s commitment to aiding the most vulnerable affected by the conflict.
Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv on the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expressing his honor to be there and reaffirming his support for Ukraine. Johnson, who played a crucial role in providing Ukraine with critical military aid during his tenure and has continued to advocate for Western military support since his resignation, was named an “honorary citizen” of Kyiv by Mayor Vitalii Klitschko. His visit coincides with the arrival of other Western leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to commemorate the anniversary.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Defense Minister Paul Johnson discussed joint weapons production and the potential for a bilateral security guarantee agreement, as Sweden announced its largest defense aid package to Ukraine, totaling $682 million. This aid contributes to Sweden’s total military support of approximately $2.88 billion since the invasion began. Zelensky emphasized the importance of support from friends on this significant date, highlighting Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to secure bilateral security agreements with various countries, following a G7 pledge to deter Russian aggression.
The European Union plans to open a Defense Innovation office in Kyiv to support Ukraine’s integration into European defense programs and allow EU countries to learn from Ukrainian military experiences, announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The German Foreign Ministry has updated its official country directory to use the Ukrainian transliteration of Kyiv, changing from the Russian version “Kiew” to “Kyjiw.” This adjustment aligns with the ministry’s guidance for governmental and private entities on spelling and style, reflecting a shift that began to emerge in German usage in 2021. The transition includes updates to the ministry’s websites, embassy signage, and official seals, although the German Embassy in Kyiv’s website address still contains “Kiew,” with the text now referring to it as the German Embassy in Kyjiw.
Bloomberg disclosed that the US Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General is probing over 50 cases concerning the provision of US aid to Ukraine, with no allegations confirmed so far. These investigations cover a spectrum of concerns including procurement fraud, product substitution, and potential corruption. Given the rapid and voluminous supply of materials to Ukraine, Inspector General Robert Storch anticipates initiating more inquiries.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The Russian government is enhancing infrastructure and logistics in occupied Ukraine to back its defense industry and reinforce control over these territories. It announced reduced rail freight rates for transporting coal, ferrous metals, ore, and various industrial raw materials within these areas. These reductions cut transport costs by 48 percent for coal and 74 percent for other specified materials, facilitating resource movement and potentially aiding military and industrial efforts.
Russia News
Russian opposition media, Meduza and Mediazona, estimate that between 66,000 and 88,000 Russian personnel have died in the Ukraine conflict from February 2022 to December 2023, with projections suggesting around 83,000 fatalities by early 2024. This estimate aligns with a US intelligence assessment of 315,000 Russian casualties, factoring in a standard wounded-to-killed ratio. Despite these losses, Russia continues offensive operations in Ukraine, maintaining force levels through crypto-mobilization and managing to replace losses with new recruits to sustain their military efforts.
Alexei Navalny’s body has been released to his mother, as announced by his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh on February 24, following his death on February 16 in a Russian penal colony under questionable circumstances. World leaders have implicated Russian President Vladimir Putin in Navalny’s death, with debates ongoing about whether it was due to prison conditions or deliberate murder. There were initial threats from authorities to only release Navalny’s body for a secret funeral, which led to public outcry and demands for transparency. Despite the release, the details of the funeral remain uncertain, with Navalny’s team expressing concerns about potential interference. Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny’s widow, publicly condemned Putin, accusing Russian authorities of maltreatment and disrespect towards Navalny posthumously. The Orthodox Christian tradition of commemorating the deceased at nine and forty days post-death adds cultural significance to the handling and memorializing of Navalny’s body.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A Russian opinion poll by the independent organization Chronicles shows that while sentiments towards the war in Ukraine have stabilized, the prospect of another mobilization wave remains highly unpopular. The survey, conducted in late January 2024, reveals a slight increase in staunch war support to 17% from 12% in October 2023, contrasting with a steady 19% of “consistent” peace supporters. This data suggests a majority of Russians remain indifferent to the conflict. Additionally, the poll indicates a preference among Russians for demobilizing previously mobilized personnel over initiating a new mobilization wave, with even the majority of war supporters favoring the current mobilization status. President Putin, addressing potential new mobilization concerns, emphasized the success of existing force generation efforts, suggesting he recognizes the unpopularity of further mobilization but may prioritize military needs over public opinion, especially post-reelection.
The Russian news outlet MASH revealed that Russia has created its inaugural AI-equipped unmanned naval drones, named “Alfina.” These surface attack drones boast a top speed of 60 kilometers per hour, a 500-kilometer range, and can carry a payload of up to 200 kilograms. With
Russian Allies
Since September 2023, North Korea has supplied Russia with over 10,000 containers of munitions and related materials, according to the US Department of State report on February 23. Of these, more than 7,400 containers were delivered through the Vostochnaya Stevedoring Company’s terminal at Vostochny Port in Primorsky Krai. This significant supply effort underscores the deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
Indian authorities have requested the early release of Indian nationals enlisted in “auxiliary” roles within the Russian military, with the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs engaging in discussions with Russian officials for their discharge. This comes amid reports from The Hindu that some Indians were coerced into signing contracts under false pretenses to fight in Ukraine, receiving minimal training and now finding themselves stranded. It is estimated that around 100 Indian citizens have been involved in combat roles in Ukraine over the past year.
Russian Narratives for Propaganda
On the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Russian officials, occupation authorities, and milbloggers amplified anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian narratives. They reiterated claims blaming the West and Ukraine for instigating the conflict, promoting the Kremlin’s long-standing positions. This propaganda effort seeks to justify the invasion by shifting responsibility onto external forces.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is actively showcasing the achievements of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev and the capture of Avdiivka, with high-profile meetings between Mordvichev, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov being publicized. Mordvichev has claimed that Russian forces managed to push Ukrainian forces back over 10 kilometers in the operation to seize Avdiivka, a statement supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin who credited the capture to Mordvichev’s leadership. In discussions, Mordvichev emphasized the improved effectiveness of Russian reconnaissance-strike and reconnaissance-fire complexes, suggesting significant technological and tactical advancements in Russian military operations. However, the operational-level use of these systems on a large scale in Ukraine remains unproven, with Mordvichev likely blending these concepts in tactical actions in Avdiivka. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Russian attempts to establish temporary air superiority in the final stages of the Avdiivka operation and mentioned Russian plans to introduce drones with artificial intelligence capabilities. Despite these developments, Mordvichev acknowledges ongoing Ukrainian resistance and indirect fire near Avdiivka, offering a more measured view compared to other Russian officials who tout Russian successes and Ukrainian ammunition shortages.
Senior Russian military leaders are shifting blame for alleged Russian war crimes to lower-ranking commanders, with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) highlighting efforts to ensure humane treatment of Ukrainian POWs, as directed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev. This move comes amid international scrutiny over Russian conduct in the conflict, particularly regarding the treatment of POWs. Shoigu’s public instructions and Putin’s likely concerns indicate an attempt to mitigate international backlash and maintain a facade of compliance with international norms.
In the aftermath of the February 23 A-50 aircraft shootdown, Russian milbloggers and information space actors have largely dismissed Ukraine’s involvement, instead proposing various theories implicating Russian forces. Some suggest an investigation into a Russian S-400 crew for mistakenly downing the A-50 while attempting to intercept Ukrainian missiles, while others believe the aircraft was intentionally targeted by Russian air defense. Despite these claims, one Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger challenges the narrative of systemic incompetence among Russian air defenses, crediting the shootdown to Ukrainian forces, contrary to assertions that the aircraft was beyond the reach of Western-supplied Patriot systems.
A Kremlin-aligned Russian milblogger sought to minimize the impact of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s declaration on February 22, indicating Armenia’s “essential” halt in participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid worsening Russian-Armenian relations. This attempt to downplay reflects efforts to manage the narrative surrounding the strained ties within the CSTO framework.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.